Irish Election Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's the difference between the "final tallies" in the results livetracker and "first counts" which we are said not to have yet?

Can you give a link of the tracker please ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html

Thanks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've not found any exit polls/projecitons in that site...

[Antonio the Sixth]

The exit poll is: FG 36.1, LAB 20.5, FF 15.1, SF 10.1, GRN 2.7, IND/OTHER 15.5

Oh, so no new ones have come since ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The exit poll is: FG 36.1, LAB 20.5, FF 15.1, SF 10.1, GRN 2.7, IND/OTHER 15.5

Oh, so no new ones have come since ?

Nothing's changed for a while now. Seems like they're all counting and we need to wait until somebody publishes final first prefs.

Damn... I read prior in this thread that the counts would be long, but I hope we will have a more precise idea of how things are going before tomorrow...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour below 20%...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will labour join a FG-led coalition ? It would be a rather stupid thing to do at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are the last constituencies so slow to count ballots ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are the last constituencies so slow to count ballots ?

Recounts

But even before recounts were called it seemed like the last 5-7 constituencies were still counting whereas any other had already finished since a while.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looking at the Wicklow results... Kavanagh's transfers to his running mates seem rather poor : less than 60%. It would be a shame if Labour didn't manage to elect a single MP despite polling over the quota.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21

Ok, last update for today, with the 12 remaining seats.

FG : 74 to 76
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 18 to 20

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interestingly, it looks like the only ministers who survived are those whose job is related to economy. Funny considering economy is the reason why FF is so hated.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When are the recounts expected to end in the remaining 3 constituencies ?

Also, why the hell would Labour and FG try to form a coalition ? They both have nothing to win and everything to lose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, firstly, it's what they've always done. Secondly, there may be a view that a stable government would be better for the country and helpful in terms with dealing with the country's new masters. Thirdly, politics is about power; you don't run for office just because doing so successfully is an ego boost, you want to actually do something. Labour may also feel that it would be better for its supporters (old and new) if it kept a leash on the more right-wing elements within Fine Gael. And so on and so forth.

Yeah, makes sense. But do they realize that strategically this is an epic fail that will likely kill them in the next election, meaning that they will have wasted a historic occasion to become a true government party ?

As for Fine Gael, they would be a lot safer and freer in their policy choice by forming a minority government with the support of a few independents.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, let's hope that the third time Labour will finally understand how not to lose half of their votes from one election to another...

If we have to have a Labour-FG coalition, let's at least hope there will be some true agreement, and not a Clegg-like masquerade.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Recount results in Galway W and Laois/Offaly should come soon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

GW recount is already almost 1 hour late. L/O's should have come 8 minutes ago...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok, I think now we've more or less final results. Just for the fun, let's see how the election would turn out if other voting systems were used :

Party	STV	WTA	SNTV	PR/C	Nat PR
Fine Gael	76	133	79	15	67
Labour	37	27	34	14	36
Fianna Fail	20	0	19	7	34
Sinn Fein	14	3	16	6	19
United Left	5	0	5	3	5
Oth/Ind	14	3	13	2	2 (+3 greens)

STV : Single transferable vote, Ireland's voting system.
WTA : Winner-takes-all by constituency. The party winning a plurality gets every seat (similar to the system used for US presidential elections)
SNTV : Single non-transferable vote : the candidates getting the most votes in each constituency are elected.
PR/C : Proportional representation by constituency, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independents are counted separately and United Left candidates are counted together. Work in progress.
Nat PR : Proportional representation at the national level, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independent candidates must reach the quota (total vote/165) to be elected (only 2 did). The United Left candidates are counted as if they formed a single list. FF has one seat more than what it would be entitled to, due to the CC not being counted as a party member.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.

If this will prove true, good riddance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance of a Fine Gael / Sinn Fein government, even if only as a negotiating tool for Fine Gael as they work on their expected coalition with Labour?

It would be weird considering that Sinn Fein has the most populist/left-wing rhetoric and would basically oppose anything proposed by FG.

...On the other hand, Irish politics don't make much sense ideologically, so you never know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As the counts are now definitive, another update of my seat counts with other voting systems. I'll try to finish PR/constituency as soon as possible.

Party	STV	WTA	SNTV	PR/C	NPR1	NPR2
Fine Gael	76	132	79	64	67	64
Labour	37	27	34	33	36	35
Fianna Fail	20	1	19	37	33	32
Sinn Fein	14	3	16	18	18	18
United Left	5	0	5	4	5	5
Oth/Ind	14	3	13	10	7 (3G)	12 (3G)

STV : Single transferable vote, Ireland's voting system.
WTA : Winner-takes-all by constituency. The party winning a plurality gets every seat (similar to the system used for US presidential elections)
SNTV : Single non-transferable vote : the candidates getting the most votes in each constituency are elected.
PR/C : Proportional representation by constituency, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independents are counted separately and United Left candidates are counted together.
Nat PR : Proportional representation at the national level, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independent candidates must reach the quota (total vote/165) to be elected (only 2 did). The United Left candidates are counted as if they formed a single list. FF has one seat more than what it would be entitled to, due to the CC not being counted as a party member.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bumping this because I've eventually finished my PR by constituency figure. I've also made two forms of national PR : one with a threshold of 0.6% (ie 1/165), excluding lists and independents who have got less than around 13,500 votes. The other which is pure St Lagüe. As you see, the only difference is the number of independents.

General note : in every system I've made sure to exclude the CC's seat from the count, so that FF get one seat more than "deserved". For constituency system, I've granted Kirk an immediate election in Louth and shared the 4 remaining seats as if it were a normal election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It seems like the result in Louth, at least by party, would have been the same if Kirk had not been automatically returned.  That's in definite contrast to the result in Cavan-Monaghan in 2007.

With STV, it's true indeed (due to epically poor FF transfers). With PR though, FF gets two seats (one elected + the CC).