UK By-elections thread, 2021- (user search)
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  UK By-elections thread, 2021- (search mode)
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MillennialModerate
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« on: June 11, 2023, 08:00:45 AM »
Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2023, 08:20:37 AM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on June 11, 2023, 08:00:45 AM
Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2023, 05:07:04 PM »
Anyone have a place where these are being covered? I thought Sky would but guess not
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2023, 06:33:29 PM »
Sounds as if each party is going to win 1 seat tonight. Ulez saving the tories in Uxbridge
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2023, 06:41:45 PM »
Quote from: Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on July 20, 2023, 06:39:47 PM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on July 20, 2023, 06:33:29 PM
Sounds as if each party is going to win 1 seat tonight. Ulez saving the tories in Uxbridge
It's possible. Only time will tell, though.

Even though rational says otherwise, perception wise it’s terrible for Labour
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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2023, 07:11:47 PM »
Quote from: TheTide on July 20, 2023, 06:59:17 PM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on July 20, 2023, 06:41:45 PM
Quote from: Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on July 20, 2023, 06:39:47 PM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on July 20, 2023, 06:33:29 PM
Sounds as if each party is going to win 1 seat tonight. Ulez saving the tories in Uxbridge
It's possible. Only time will tell, though.

Even though rational says otherwise, perception wise it’s terrible for Labour

I think you are generally perceived as being somewhat less desirable than pancreatic cancer.

LOL, that’s messed up
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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2023, 08:05:00 PM »
Quote from: Duke of York on July 20, 2023, 06:52:13 PM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on July 20, 2023, 06:33:29 PM
Sounds as if each party is going to win 1 seat tonight. Ulez saving the tories in Uxbridge

There is no evidence for this at the moment.

….
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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2023, 10:03:24 PM »
Quote from: Doug Burgum Sugar Baby on July 20, 2023, 09:10:03 PM
Caught up on the last 2 months of the thread tonight, just wanted to point out:

Quote from: MillennialModerate on June 11, 2023, 08:20:37 AM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on June 11, 2023, 08:00:45 AM
Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)
Can we please just ban him?

Clever.

Majorities of 20k and 19k are normally flipped, right?

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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2023, 10:23:39 PM »
any guesses on the spin from the press?

The swing against the tories?

or the tories hanging on in Uxbridge?
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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2024, 07:20:30 AM »
Quote from: TheTide on February 17, 2024, 06:11:44 AM
Quote from: YL on February 16, 2024, 02:22:32 PM
"Labour actually lost 540 votes. It's just Tory voters staying at home; they're not shifting to Labour."

Come to think of it, I'm surprised that idiot from Massachusetts hasn't shown up in this thread to make this point.


Now Now, there’s a 1 in 2 chance you’re talking about me - but seeing as you didn’t make any specific reference I’ll assume you’re talking about others 
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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2024, 10:51:44 PM »
Ahh damn. So close to a Reform 2nd.

Dominate win for Labour. I wonder what the swing is
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