KY-GOV (Garin-Hart-Yang/Beshear internal): Beshear +9

[wbrocks67]

Beshear (D) 51%
Cameron (R) 42%

They had Beshear +3 in July

https://twitter.com/_AustinHorn/status/1699151620406198749

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Alben/BRTD- 2 IceSpear/TrendsAreReal- 0

[NewYorkExpress]

Cameron is a really strong candidate, but this race is starting to remind me of the 2019 Gubernatorial election in Louisiana.

[Duke of York]

Cameron is a really strong candidate, but this race is starting to remind me of the 2019 Gubernatorial election in Louisiana.

Im inclined to agree. I could see Beshear getting a few points over 50. Not willing to make a pronouncement at this time as to how much.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beshear at 51% is kind of all I need to see to think he is going to win. There is still time, but not as much, for Cameron to make a dent into that, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Beshear probably wins by two points at least. Incumbency and popularity looks to be winning out over partisanship here so far.

[BigZuck08]

This is a Beshear internal, so I highly doubt he is winning by 9, but I still nevertheless think he will win re-election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah this one is over

[MT Treasurer]

While a Beshear win on its own might not tell us that much about 2024, this type of margin/a >5-point win would indicate something of an avalanche for Trump and down-ballot Republicans next year. The same issues (abortion, crime, transgender rights, etc.) are salient in this campaign and both parties have tested their messaging for 2024 here.

[DaleCooper]

While a Beshear win on its own might not tell us that much about 2024, this type of margin/a >5-point win would indicate something of an avalanche for Trump and down-ballot Republicans next year. The same issues (abortion, crime, transgender rights, etc.) are salient in this campaign and both parties have tested their messaging for 2024 here.

In particular I think that a comfortable Beshear win will be a great sign for every single incumbent Democrat except WV, which is too far gone. I don't know that it will indicate much regarding the presidency, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no red wave if Cameron is losing in an R 22 state, sorry

[TML]

While a Beshear win on its own might not tell us that much about 2024, this type of margin/a >5-point win would indicate something of an avalanche for Trump and down-ballot Republicans next year. The same issues (abortion, crime, transgender rights, etc.) are salient in this campaign and both parties have tested their messaging for 2024 here.

In particular I think that a comfortable Beshear win will be a great sign for every single incumbent Democrat except WV, which is too far gone. I don't know that it will indicate much regarding the presidency, though.

In terms of WV, the main reason I've written Manchin off is not his state's partisan lean (since he has dramatically outperformed that before), but rather his own unpopularity (the latest morning consult approval ratings has his net approval at 16 points underwater). On the other hand, both Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester have been able to stay significantly above water (for now) in terms of their own approval ratings, so if Manchin's approval ratings had also been significantly above water just like Brown and/or Tester, I would have considered him as at least having a fighting chance of winning again (which is how I currently view Brown & Tester), but since that is not the case right now, I would consider him a significant underdog should he decide to run again.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

As with most internals I'd say move this 5-6 points in the opposite direction to fit. Beshear +3-4 is where that'd end up being, which is actually better than where I think it's at (Beshear +1-2)

[Sir Mohamed]

It's an internal and a 9 pt. margin seems a bit too far fetched. I buy Beshear is in the driver's seat for now and on track to win reelection, but I'm more looking for a 2-4 pt. victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's an internal and a 9 pt. margin seems a bit too far fetched. I buy Beshear is in the driver's seat for now and on track to win reelection, but I'm more looking for a 2-4 pt. victory.

This isn't no ordinary internal it polls for IL races to and they hit the poll exact margins and other polls have said Beshear +8 notice Ryan didn't enter it in Database or other KY polls it's not tied KY

[Duke of York]

Yeah this one is over

Im not willing to say that yet. I don't consider any election as written in stone anymore.

[DrScholl]

Beshear has done enough good to win reelection even if it is a very Republican state. And I wouldn't discount race being a factor. Parts of the state are going to be reluctant to vote out a White incumbent for a Black challenger. If he loses it wouldn't be all about race, but I'm very curious to see how the numbers come back in some of the eastern counties.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It really is interesting how doggedly non-partisan Governor's elections are lately. Beshear, Kelly, and Bel Edwards all holding on is impressive on its own, but Scott is likely in office as long as he wants to be and and the odds are Sununu and Baker could have been if they kept running as well.

[TML]

It really is interesting how doggedly non-partisan Governor's elections are lately. Beshear, Kelly, and Bel Edwards all holding on is impressive on its own, but Scott is likely in office as long as he wants to be and and the odds are Sununu and Baker could have been if they kept running as well.

Baker would probably have lost renomination in 2022 had he tried to run again.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It really is interesting how doggedly non-partisan Governor's elections are lately. Beshear, Kelly, and Bel Edwards all holding on is impressive on its own, but Scott is likely in office as long as he wants to be and and the odds are Sununu and Baker could have been if they kept running as well.

Baker would probably have lost renomination in 2022 had he tried to run again.

Yeah, his biggest problem was his party being freaks who would chose to lose by 20 over keeping the Governor's seat indefinitely.

[Alben Barkley]

Cameron is a really strong candidate, but this race is starting to remind me of the 2019 Gubernatorial election in Louisiana.

Is he really though? He seems to have subzero charisma in his ads. No wonder Beshear beats him on "likability" by 30 points. That might be the ballgame right there.

[Alben Barkley]

Beshear has done enough good to win reelection even if it is a very Republican state. And I wouldn't discount race being a factor. Parts of the state are going to be reluctant to vote out a White incumbent for a Black challenger. If he loses it wouldn't be all about race, but I'm very curious to see how the numbers come back in some of the eastern counties.

I did mention in another thread, this could be an underrated factor. It's kinda taboo to talk about, and it is true that black Republicans have won in other red Southern states like SC before. But man, I've been to some of those eastern counties, hell my family is from Harlan originally. And I too will be interested in seeing how they vote. I think Beshear can win even if most of the counties he won in the region before flip, but I don't expect Cameron to win them by landslide margins either. And race might be part of the reason why. In a very close race, it could well even be decisive. Kinda messed up but it is what it is.

This state is not the racist hellhole California liberals may view it as by any means, but that doesn't mean there isn't still an undercurrent of people who are very uncomfortable voting for a black person. There's a reason certain counties in KY, counties that voted for f--king Kerry, shifted so dramatically right when Obama was on the ballot, and it's not all just trends. There's a reason Hillary absolutely crushed Obama in KY more than most any other state. I was frankly a little surprised Cameron won the GOP nomination at all, but now that he has and more people are paying attention, it won't be a factor that HELPS him, let me just put it that way. His lack of charisma is, however, the much bigger factor. As is his inability to launch anything but petty culture war attacks against Beshear, as Kentuckians know his time in office has been a success and generally approve of and like him.