New Tradesports rankings

[CARLHAYDEN]

Interesting trend over the past month:

                                                3/9        3/26     4/10     Change

Guiliani                                     40.0      40.5      30.5      -9.5

McCain                                     25.4       20.2     19.5      -5.9

Romney                                   18.3       16.3      17.4      -0.9

F. Thompson                              2.0        9.8     18.7    +16.7

and Fred Thompson hasn't even announced yet!

[CARLHAYDEN]

It is very sad.

I am reminded of the late Paul Tsongas.  He a brief cite from Wikipedia article:

In 1983, he was diagnosed with cancer and in 1984 announced his retirement from the Senate. After fighting the illness he returned to politics and in 1992 ran for his party's nomination for President. He ran a strong campaign and succeeded in winning the New Hampshire primary, but was eventually eclipsed by a resurgent Bill Clinton (the "Comeback Kid"), who would go on to win the Presidency. Tsongas was viewed as social liberal and economic conservative. He was especially known for his pro-business economic policies. In particular, he focused on the United States budget deficit and its harmful effects, a cause he continued to champion after his primary campaign ended by co-founding The Concord Coalition.

A few years later the cancer returned and he died of pneumonia and liver failure

RIP

[CARLHAYDEN]

Looks like it will be up to Rudi to stop Hillary from sitting in the White House.  It's a shame.  I was really warming to Thompson.

Well, we already know the numbers and date for filing for a third party candidate in Arizona.

As bad as Hillary is, Giuliani is worse.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry Carl, no one on the planet is worse than Hillary.  That would be impossible.  If there is a third party, that would insure that we will all get to find out just HOW bad she is.

Needless to say, I'm no fan of Hillary.

However, I believe that Giuliani is more likely to suceed in pursuing many of the liberal objectives he has in common with Sen. Clinton that she herself would have.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Its interesting to see changes in the rankings over time.

Candidate                Date                    Change
                      5/17/07     5/28/07

Giuliani             30.0          27.0             -3.0
McCain              27.6         19.9             -7.7
Romney            17.9          23.0            +5.1
Thompson        14.4          22.3            +7.9

While the change in the Giuliani support level is comparatively modest, and in line with a gradual reduction in support since early April, can anyone explain the rather significant drop in support for McCain, and the corresponding significant increasein support for Romney and Thompson? 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Update: It's now:

F. Thompson 26.9
Giuliani 25.6
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.6

Thompson has taken the lead for the first time ever.  Going by the Intrade numbers, Thompson is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

About what I expected.

Giuliani continues to slide.

Thompson continues to gain.

Romney stable.

McCain drops further.

[CARLHAYDEN]

It seems to me that the "bid" is more important than the "ask" price on Intrade.


The current "bid" in the Republican race is:

Thompson     24.4
Guiliani          24.1
Romney         23.0
McCain          17.1

[CARLHAYDEN]

McCain's touch dial numbers did suck in areas I liked...which explains why I'm not a Republican or conservative independent.

He may have gotten pounded.

But it's only one debate.

You're right.

There are so many more opportunities for McCain to get pounded.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Can someone explain why the big change in the past month?

Candidate     May 17     June 17     Change

Thompson       14.4           30           +15.6
Giuliani            30              28.5        -   1.5
Romney           17.9           19.3        +  1.4
McCain             27.6             9.5        - 18.1

[CARLHAYDEN]

Maybe I missed something but, when did Thompson announce his candidacy?

Also, how does this explain the dramatic drop in the McCain support?

Remember  that McCain lost more support than Thompson gained.

Has something happened over the last month that might account for the big McCain drop.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Maybe I missed something but, when did Thompson announce his candidacy?

Also, how does this explain the dramatic drop in the McCain support?

Remember  that McCain lost more support than Thompson gained.

Has something happened over the last month that might account for the big McCain drop.

1. Thompson formed an exploratory committee (http://www.imwithfred.com) and will annouce on July 4th I believe

2. It does not indicate a drop in support, but rather a drop in chance of winning the nomination

3. It shows that people feel that Thompson's entrance has to eliminate someone and because of his recent catastrophe's topped off by the immigration bill, that person is McCain

First, thank you for the information (which I already had).  I thought you had said that Thompson "has announced."  If this had occured, it would have been news to me.

Second, its nice to know that a candidate perceived drop in chance of winning the nomination occurs without any actual drop in real support.  Hmm, are you saying that the assessment of his likelhood of winning the nomination overstated his real chances and that the new assessnebt merely reflects a better understanding of the probability of his being nominated as opposed to a real decrease in support for his candidacy.

Third, if I understand you correctly, are you suggesting that but for the entrance of the Thompson candidacy McCain's likelihood of receiving the nomination would not have signficantly decreased?   The Romney people are telling me that but for the Thompson candidacy, they would now be riding the crest of the nomination wave.

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, thank you for the information (which I already had).  I thought you had said that Thompson "has announced."  If this had occured, it would have been news to me.

He's announced the formation of an exploratory committee, which is pretty much as good as announcing that he's running.  Huckabee also hasn't done an official announcement that he's running (only an exploratory committee), but it's pretty obvious that he's running.  The actual announcement of candidacy is little more than a formality.



Hmm.

Ever hear of the "Friends of Evan Bayh"  exploratory committee?

[CARLHAYDEN]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well yes, Bayh dropped out.  Just like other candidates have and will drop out.  But I still think that once you have an exploratory committee, you're basically running.  Kerry didn't officially announce his 2004 campaign until freaking September of 2003, after having spent the first 8 months of the year campaigning, raising money, and participating in multiple debates.  I just don't see how the official announcement of candidacy really means anything these days.

Sorry, but Bayh never announced, therefor he didn't drop out since he was never truly "in."

Check with the FEC and they will tell you there are numerous legal differences between announced candidacies and exploratory committees.

[CARLHAYDEN]

McCain's meteoric drop is amazing. I think people kept thinking he was 'McCain 2000'...the independent maverick...a perfect candidate for a 'change election'

but once people took a look they realized he has changed....he now seems much older and he has linked himself to Bush on the two big issues. One to piss off the right (immigration) and one to piss off the middle and the left (Iraq).

what is his next trick...to say 'I hate kittens and babies'?


by the way...what is the price that you guys focus on here?
bid, ask or latest?
I would imagine that last or ask would be best

Uh, actually I believe he's planning on pouring gasoline on kittens and babies and then setting them afire.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 33.3
Gore 8.5
Edwards 5.1
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0 (way ahead of both his bid & offer for some reason)
Thompson 34.0
Romney 22.4
McCain 7.8
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Er, Boss, suppose you're a wealthy (inherited) liberal pseudoRepublican who supports Giuliani.

You've already maxed out your legal contributions to his campaign.

You cann't legally go out and buy advertising for him.

You notice that over the past six weeks he's been dropping in most polls.

So, you go out and "buy" him some good news by dropping some money at Intrade to make him look good.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Romney's the one hurting McCain...damn!!

Correction.

McCain is the one hurting McCain.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Today Intrade:

Obama          60.9
McCain          35.8

This is approaching a blow out!

[CARLHAYDEN]

What exactly is Intrade, anyway? A betting website? Do you make money off it?

Its a futures market.

Yes, you can make money off of it if you place your investment correctly.

Do ask JJ just how much money he made off his recommended Hillary investment.