AL-Capital Survey Research Center: It's Obama and McCain

[Tender Branson]

The poll shows Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, leading U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, of New York, 40 percent to 35 percent in the Democratic primary. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, of North Carolina, who has dropped out of the race, was a distant third at 9 percent. The undecided Democratic vote is 16 percent and the margin of error, based on a sample of 373 voters, is plus or minus 5 percentage points, meaning Obama and Clinton could be tied.

McCain, a Republican U.S. senator from Arizona, had 28 percent in the GOP primary. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had 24 percent. Former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney polled 15 percent, while former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani polled 9 percent. Another 25 percent said they had other choices or were undecided. The sample of 397 Republican voters has an error margin of just under 5 percentage points, which means the Republican primary also could be very close.

http://www.timesdaily.com/article/20080131/NEWS/801310328/-1/COMMUNITIES

[Verily]

Not unlikely results, but who are Capital Survey Research?

[Sam Spade]

Capital Survey is an OK, not great Alabama firm run under the AEA.

At least it doesn't think it can try and poll other states.

[Eraserhead]

It might be close because Edwards dropped out. A small price to pay.

[Lief 🗽]

Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are the only state where Edwards dropping out is bad for Obama.

[War on Want]

Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are the only state where Edwards dropping out is bad for Obama.

Don't forget Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, and North Dakota.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, Oklahoma yeah, but Obama has absolutely no chance there.

Obama generally does better with Midwestern whites than he does with Southern whites, so I think that Edwards dropping out still helps him in North Dakota, Kansas and Missouri.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

No surprise for the Democrats, I still figured Huckabee would hold onto the Deep South.