2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[RogueBeaver]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

The Orange Crush may strike yet again.  Polls for the federal election didn't put the NDP ahead of the Liberals until less than two weeks before the election.  We still got until October, and they're only 4 percentage points away from each other. 

Horwath is no Layton (indeed, even Rees-Cohn admitted today that her performance has been fairly amateurish till recently), and the OLP's machinery is in much better shape than the LPC's. That said, given how much Dad is hated, I wouldn't be surprised if the Libs did indeed slip into 3rd.

[RogueBeaver]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

The Orange Crush may strike yet again.  Polls for the federal election didn't put the NDP ahead of the Liberals until less than two weeks before the election.  We still got until October, and they're only 4 percentage points away from each other. 

Horwath is no Layton (indeed, even Rees-Cohn admitted today that her performance has been fairly amateurish till recently), and the OLP's machinery is in much better shape than the LPC's. That said, given how much Dad is hated, I wouldn't be surprised if the Libs did indeed slip into 3rd.

More and more, I wonder if the so-called "Orange Crush" was real in English Canada. It was perhaps more a case of "Red Sickness".

English Canada: A combination of running as NDP-lite, Iggy's poor leadership and structural problems that date to 2003. Think about this: the last time their machinery was operational, it was used in the Great Chretienite Purge leading up to the 2004 election.

Just so long as Rae stays away, because Hudak would wank in public if he could get a picture of Ontario's two most radioactive politicians sharing a platform. The only Liberal MP who might participate will be the Hon. member for Papineau buzzing around the GTA like he did for Smitherman and Ruby Dhalla. Good press for him, but absolutely no benefits for those who issued the invitation.

[RogueBeaver]

I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario.

But on the NDP's behalf (though it's still early to tell), the dynamics may be different again since this spring's federal election.

And even though it seems unlikely that the Liberal-vs-NDP paradigm will shift so drastically provincially as it did federally--my feeling is that there may be as many as half of Ontario's existing seats that, to use US terminology, can be classified as "tossup" or leaning in a non-incumbent direction.  And the sweeping bulk of those are, of course, Liberal.

The trouble, in the end, is that too much of the Ontario Liberal base is founded upon "not Harris/not Rae" quicksand which has been taken for granted for too long.  Thus, don't be surprised if a notional ElectoMatic 36 Liberal seats turns out to be half that--on whose behalf is another question entirely...

While the NDP could very well win a lot of seats this election, the dynamics haven't changed for the Liberal party. They have the same ideology; so NDP votes will mostly come from Liberal votes ensuring a minority government's likelihood will not go up significantly. For things to change drastically, the NDP has to start taking Tory votes or the Liberals will have to move to the right again...

NDP is not taking Tory votes. Liberals can't move right otherwise their PEU friends desert and half their infrastructure does as well. Plus, Dad's always been quite honest about his ideological direction. Promising to raise taxes (per Duncan) and buy off the PEUs is not going to win Tory votes.

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa South: LOL. While I'd be delighted, I'm not going to believe that till I see it projected on election night.

[RogueBeaver]

Genco is running as a PC against Sorbara in Vaughan per the Star . 308 marks that as safe Liberal. A question to Ontarians: is it Sorbara's personal popularity that keeps his seat safe? Especially given Fantino's federal landslide in May.

Also, 308 projects a Dipper victory in Manitoba, 33-22-3 despite losing the popular vote 44-40.

[RogueBeaver]

To be fair, no pollster predicted the NDP surge before it happened. Back to my original question: how vulnerable is Sorbara?

[RogueBeaver]

2011 fed: 29%. That's certainly an ominous sign for Sorbara.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath isn't Layton and the OLP's machinery is in much better condition than the LPC's, but I wouldn't rule out a Dipper opposition either.

Also from today's Star: driving seniors into PC arms and youth into NDP arms. I love when politicians so willingly commit electoral suicide.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1032260--ontario-liberals-announce-highest-rent-increase-rate-in-years

[RogueBeaver]

NL: Safe PC. No, Dunderdale won't get a shutout like Ghiz might and McKenna did, but a near-sweep.

SK: Safe SP.

MB: Tossup, possible NDP victory.

ON: Likely PC.

[RogueBeaver]

Dissolution should be around Labour Day. Hopefully this is just a dead cat's bounce.

[RogueBeaver]

To Ontarians here: any evidence on the ground of a Liberal surge, since we can't trust the polls yet?

[RogueBeaver]

If someone doesn't talk Rae out of his batsh**t insane idea that he could help by stumping for Dad, the NDP numbers will go up. They hate Rae much more than the PCs do as a vendu.

[RogueBeaver]

The Legault Party isn't running in anything this year, and Bonaventure stays Liberal. I honestly don't see the BFD about Legault, except that the media is making a very unremarkable ex-Peq minister a BFD.

[RogueBeaver]

As a Tory, I have three beefs with Hudak's strategy. 1) Far too soft on the deficit 2) EE distracting from what should be a laser-beam focus on Disaster Dad 3) Running a Deweyesque campaign during the summer.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest will likely send we Quebecers to the polls sometime between next December and February 2013, with the likeliest date next December. A month on either side of the 4-year mark has been the case for all but 1 majority government of the past 30 years.

To your question: the latter.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Alberta won't go rosy for another 2 cycles, unfortunately. IMO, the Alberta PCs deserve to be wiped off the electoral map like their Socred predecessors were. Crony corruptocratic CINOs so far as this Tory is concerned. At least since Klein's last term they've been all adjective and no noun.

[RogueBeaver]

They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

Of course they are. In due time the Tories might surpass or exceed the Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

How's Christie Clark doing anyway?

Horribly in the polls. That's why she's delaying the inevitable till next May.