For this scenario, let's assume that Roy Moore wins the special election in Alabama and is reelected in 2020. Either Trump is (somehow) reelected in 2020, or doesn't serve out his term as president for whatever reason, and Mike Pence becomes the 46th President of the United States. Also in 2020, Ed Markey retires, since he'd be 74, and Joe Kennedy wins his open seat.
Whether or not Trump is still in office by 2024, there is a hotly contested primary pitting the more traditional GOP establishment against the "Trump establishment". In both of these scenarios, Roy Moore ends up on top as the Republican nominee, even defeating Mike Pence if he runs for a full term. He runs sort of like a Trumpist, but more like a traditional conservative, advocating for less spending and a more religion-based lifestyle. Unlike Trump, his main base is the deep south, and his performance in the midwest is only average at-best for a Republican.
Democrats nominate now-Senator Joe Kennedy III, who runs on a progressive platform. His main base is the Northeast, and also makes inroads in the increasingly Democratic sunbelt.
Sen. Joe Kennedy/Gov. Gavin Newsom - 356Sen. Roy Moore/Gov. Kristi Noem-182(electoral vote estimates for post-2020 census come from
270towin)
Discuss w/ maps.
