McKinley had already won a second term in 1900. It would be someone else in 1904.
Not necessarily. McKinley would have been only 61 in 1904, and probably still popular. Also Ida's health no doubt would have been better had her husband still lived. He might not have gotten the nomination in 1904, but I see no reason he wouldn't have tried.
You do not think McKinley would have stuck to precedent?
Grant had flirted with the idea of trying for a third term and the reason no other two-term president tried for a third term in the 19th century had nothing to do with Washington's precedent. Jefferson was tired of the presidency and essentially quit before his second term was over in all but name. Madison, Monroe, and Jackson all retired because the Presidency was proving personally ruinous to them financially because of the inattention to their own personal affairs and thus felt the need to resume control of their plantations. McKinley likely would have been in good shape physically, financially, and politically, and he would have been relatively young.