Is Southern California (minus LA County) similar to Nevada or Arizona politically?

[kwabbit]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

[kwabbit]

Continuing my earlier post, how that state would be treated electorally is interesting. A 10 point swing to Clinton would've been the strongest by far out of any state. From what I remember it was a decent surprise just how strong Clinton did in California. I don't think anyone expected her to swing OC by 15 points, even if they thought she might win it. Like it would've probably been considered a swing state still until those results.

Yeah I looked it up, the polling average was Clinton +23. Clinton beat her polling in California more than any other state except Hawaii.

[kwabbit]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

That is a crazy swing from 04-08. Worse than 12-16.

The country swung 10 points, so a 7 point trend. Obama to Clinton was a 12 point trend. Bush did very well in SoCal, winning OC by 20, SD by 6, Riverside by 16, and San Bernardino by 12. Bush won Correa's (Loretta Sanchez's at the time) district in OC. I'd have to see a precinct map, but I'm guessing he had to have won large portions of suburban LA County as well.

[kwabbit]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

That is a crazy swing from 04-08. Worse than 12-16.

The country swung 10 points, so a 7 point trend. Obama to Clinton was a 12 point trend. Bush did very well in SoCal, winning OC by 20, SD by 6, Riverside by 16, and San Bernardino by 12. Bush won Correa's (Loretta Sanchez's at the time) district in OC. I'd have to see a precinct map, but I'm guessing he had to have won large portions of suburban LA County as well.

It would be interesting to see a precinct map of CA in 2004. In any case, with those numbers, that would probably count as one of the biggest pro-Dem swings and trends from 2004>2016, no?

Yeah OC is up there. I found results by CD. Bush won the LA County/Orange based 42nd district handily 62-37 (Diamond Bar, Chino, Yorba Linda, Rowland Heights, Mission Viejo), the LA County/ San Bernardino based 26th (Arcadia, Glendora, Rancho Cucamonga), the 25th (North LA County), and the 24th (Ventura County and Santa Barbara). The incumbent protection map packed all the possibly Republican areas of LA County into districts extending into other GOP strongholds.