Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[eric82oslo]

Anyway in Denmark the two parties with the most obviously working class voter profile (however defined) are the SDs and the DPP (although both, of course, attract votes from other sources). Other parties (whatever the camp) tend to have a more affluent* profile. I generalise greatly of course.

I agree. It's exactly the same in Norway. Just the "NPP" is called Progress Party instead.

[eric82oslo]

Exit Poll:

Slight 51%-49% lead for the Opposition and 89 vs. 86 seats.

This is just one of the 4 announced exit polls. I'm curious about the other three.

[eric82oslo]

Assuming that Greenland and the Faroes vote 3-1 for Team Red,

Team Red will win if TV2's exit poll holds. Team Blue wins according to DR.

You're right. According to the TV2 exit poll, team blue is just ahead 88-87.
I presume the two remaining exit polls were conducted by newspapers?

[eric82oslo]

With 0.3% of all votes counted, blue block is leading with impressive 64% against 36%, though almost no votes in Copenhagen have been counted yet. DPP sees enormous progress almost everywhere, some places even more than doubling their support. The biggest loser seems to be Radical Left.

Here's a nice map of the actual results: http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/

As you can see, almost entirely blue so far.

[eric82oslo]

With 0.9% of votes counted, blue block is still leading 65% to 35%!

The first DR prognosis based on the first 0.6% of votes predicts blue team to win 92-83, shockingly different from their own exit poll. According to it, Liberals and DPP have basically the same number of parliamentarians.

[eric82oslo]

Where do you guys see total votes ?

I am using

http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/resultat

But that does not seem to tabulate total votes.  I have to look at each district at a time.

Here they have total votes: http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/

1.2% right now, though DR live broadcast is showing at least 1.5% now.

[eric82oslo]

With 0.9% of votes counted, blue block is still leading 65% to 35%!

The first DR prognosis based on the first 0.6% of votes predicts blue team to win 92-83, shockingly different from their own exit poll. According to it, Liberals and DPP have basically the same number of parliamentarians.

For crying out loud, there is NOTHING about this first percent that makes it worthwhile to use exclamation points. If it's still 92-83 in two hours or so, we can use all the exclamation points we want.

It's not that, it's the fact that all the red block parties except The Alternative is backing heavily everywhere, except for Labour which is barely increasing at all and The Red-Greens which are almost unchanged. The big winners, besides the Alternative, seem to be all blue parties, especially DPP and Liberal Aliance. And besides of the Liberals, the two big losers are SPP and Radical Left, which are losing between 60-80% of their 2011 total in most districts I've seen. That's a pretty Heavy fall.

[eric82oslo]

With 3.9% counted, the deputy prognosis right now is Labour 48, DPP 2nd with 39 and Liberals only 35.
The percentage prognosis is already showing blue block to win more than 5% more votes than red block.

[eric82oslo]

Except in Copenhagen, where it's about 50-50, the map is still almost entirely blue: http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/

The latest prognosis shows blue block leading 94-81.

[eric82oslo]

Well this looks to be spectacularly messy. Can a genuinely stable government even be formed from figures such as these?

A government with 19.5% of voters behind it doesn't sound very impressive to me at least.

[eric82oslo]

Results in Nørrebro, inner Copenhagen borough, when 81.5% of votes are counted there.

Red parties: 80.3%
Blue parties: 19.5%

1. Enhetslisten (The Red-Greens): 26.7%
2. The Alternative: 17.9%
3. Social Democrats: 17.3%
4. Radical Left: 11.0%
5. Socialist People's Party: 7.4%

6. Liberal Alliance: 6.4%
7. Liberals (Venstre): 6.0%
8. Danish People's Party: 5.3%
9. Conservative: 1.5%
10. Christian Democrats: 0.3%

LOL

[eric82oslo]

What are the differences between The Alternative and the Red-Greens?

If I'm right and I've understood things the right way, The Alternative is mainly a green party very similar to green parties in the rest of Europe, though probably slightly to the left of most other green parties as they've suggested a 30 hour labour week for instance. The Red-Greens however is to the left of Socialistic Left, which is already very leftish, so it's pretty much the most radical party of all. I hope I'm right though, as I'm far from an expert on Danish politics.

[eric82oslo]

So despite topping the poll and increasing her vote share, she ends up resigning. That seems non-sensical to me.

Maybe she just wanted to spend more time with her husband (and family). Now she can move to London without regrets.