US House Redistricting: Washington

[bgwah]

Apparently there's been quite of demand in the Yakima area for a majority-minority legislative district. I played around in the app, it's actually quite easy to draw a fairly compact district that is >70% non-white. Of course, the ripple effect it would have on surrounding districts would need to be considered. Still kind of interesting, though.

[bgwah]

Here is the proposed district: http://www.aclu-wa.org/sites/default/files/2011-06-06--Exhibit%201.pdf

I tried it out, making the 15th LD (orange) the minority-majority district. It looks fine by itself, but has a noticeable ripple effect on the rest of Eastern Washington's districts. The biggest problem that immediatately surfaces is what to do with Skamania and Klickitat counties, as the minority-majority district blocks Satus Pass.

In my first map, I tried sneaking by via the White Swan precinct to connect Skamania and Klickitat to the city of Yakima. Ideally, the town of White Swan would obviously be kept in a minority majority precinct, but the precinct there is huge so use your imagination. However, I'm not sure we have very good road connectivity even with this sneak-by. But despite that, the benefit of his map is that it manages to keep the rest of Eastern Washington's districts relatively intact. I did change the 9th a bit, having it go into Walla Walla instead of Adams and Franklin.

MAP 1



In my second map, the 15th LD (orange) keeps White Swan. The 14th (olive) remains based in northern Yakima County, gaining what it needs left from southern Kittitas. Kittitas has been completely removed from the 13th (salmon). The small-ish remaining portion of northern Kittitas is merged with Chelan to the north in the 12th district (blue). The 12th gains northern Kittitas at the expense of northern Grant. A couple thousand people are shifted around Omak, but otherwise the 12th stays relatively the same. The 7th (a lighter shade of orange?) has gained areas around Omak, but lost Lincoln County. The borders in Spokane County have been slightly altered around the edges to put their populations in equilbrium, but the 3rd (green) and 6th (yellow) didn't change too much. The 4th didn't change much either, losing NE Spokane County in exchange for SE Spokane County.

The 13th (salmon) has changed quite a bit, losing all of Kittitas and moving eastward. It now contains all of Grant, and also eats up Adams, Lincoln, and small portions of Spokane and Whitman in order to make up for losing Kittitas. As you may have noticed, we're seeing a bit of a circular population shift to create the minority district. The 13th has now pushed the 9th (cyan) completely out of Spokane and Adams and even part of Whitman. The 9th gains all of Columbia and Walla Walla, and a bit more of Franklin, to make up for its losses. The effects of the circular push result  in the 16th (green) changing most radically. It transforms from a Walla Walla-Pasco district to a Kennewick-to-Skamania district, as Southern Yakima is impenetrable in this map due to the 15th. The 8th district hasn't changed a ton. It loses Kennewick, but gains Pasco instead.

MAP 2


And thus the circular movement is completed---The 15th, which currently goes down to Skamania (and a bit of Clark), is pushed completely north into Yakima County, pushing the 14th north into Kittitas, pushing the 13th east towards Spokane and Whitman, pushing the 9th south and then east into Walla Walla and Franklin, and finally pushing the 16th all the way through Klickitat to Skamania.

The 15th LD is now 73.5% non-white. However, it still voted 53-47 Rossi.

[bgwah]

Well gee, don't all comment at once...

[bgwah]

Even though nobody cares, I'll continue: I toyed around with a majority-minority congressional district in King County.

Statewide view:


King County view:



I roughly based this off of the real proposal, but as usual their map makers don't make it as non-white as possible, and of course ignore the ripple effect it would have on other districts in the state.

The 9th district becomes majority-minority, containing South King County and much of South Seattle (though I kept the much whiter West Seattle in the 7th).

With its population pushed close to 200K under with these losses, the 7th extends north to the King County border, taking Shoreline and Lake Forest Park from the 1st. Not enough, obviously, so it also crosses the I-90 bridge, taking in Mercer Island, Newcastle, the Gold Coast, and most of Bellevue from the 8th.

With Shoreline and LFP lost, the 1st absorbs Redmond and a bit of Bellevue from the 8th.

The 8th eats up the whiter parts of the 9th in the suburban Pierce County.

The numbers:
-Dave Reichert would be satisfied: his new district is 54-46 Rossi, just as good if not better than than the proposals where his district extends into Eastern Washington.
-Dicks gets Kitsap, which Meeker claims he wants.
-Heck still gets his new Democratic-leaning 10th district anchored by Olympia, which anyone with a brain could figure out he wants.
-Herrera still gets to cut out leftist Olympia and gain part of Eastern Washington for a more solid 55-45 Rossi district.
-The 1st doesn't change too much, being a 56-44 Murray district.
-The 7th is still solid Democrat (75-25 Murray)



All things considered, the 7th becomes pretty ridiculous looking losing South Seattle and extending to Bellevue. Nobody on the Eastside would like this map, having the region even more mutilated than it already is and put into three districts despite only having ~400,000 people. And the 9th is only 52-48 minority. It does, however, become much more Democratic, voting 65-35 Murray.

[bgwah]

I don't really expect the majority-minority CD to happen, looking at that map. Besides, it's not like whites wouldn't still dominate the district.

The LD doesn't seem impossible, though.

[bgwah]

I like that map better than your previous versions, Muon, but I still can't see them ever using a Lewis-Yakima crossing.

Anyway, I was naive and idealistic when I made my first maps. It's becoming clear that WA-2 will be gerrymandered to keep Everett in it, and Larsen safe...that WA-8 might cross the Cascades, not because it makes sense, but to save Reichert. That even with that, Herrera's district will also cross into Eastern Washington to make her safer. And of course, thats 1 Democratic strengthening and 2 Republican, so 2010 WA-03 loser Denny Heck will get WA-10 in return.

My next challenge will be to incorporate some of the demands (solidify Larsen, Reichert, and Herrera while making the 10th for Heck) while also trying to incorporate as many of my idealistic preferences as possible.

[bgwah]

Including Yakima proper in the 3rd is fine so long as it includes a significant part of the rest of the county along with Klickitat. Having Yakima proper being the only part of the area in a western Washington CD isn't going to fly. And relying on US 12 as the only connector won't fly either.

It seems more like historical bias, but OK. My intent was to make keeping Yakima city intact a priority over having Klickitat go to CD 3 with a split of Yakima. I'll take your view under advisement.

Are there thoughts about the other areas of my map?

I tend to think they'll try to keep the 4th and 5th split along a vertical line as opposed to the more horizontal division you propose, but they actually have done it that way in the past so it's probably just my bias towards the more recent shapes.

There's nothing really wrong with your map... I think what some of the natives right now are trying to do, is make maps that we think might resemble something the redistricting commission will come up with. It's hard, because we all tend to be somewhat idealistic with our maps, when in fact bipartisan redistricting cares more about protecting incumbents than logical changes in the map. Everett should be moved into WA-1, for example but it will likely stay in WA-2 to keep it more Democratic and protect Larsen. Similarly, as logical as it would be for WA-8 to take Redmond, Redmond is Democratic and Dave Reichert is fighting to survive in an increasingly Democratic region, so it seems unlikely that WA-8 will take in Redmond.

[bgwah]

Anyway, here is my try at a map that aims to be somewhat realistic, but also incorporates some of my idealistic elements. Call it my Idealistic Realist map (pun intended). I haven't changed districts 3, 4, or 5 since my previous version, so for descriptions of those, go back a little.

Statewide view:


Puget Sound view:



Idealistic changes that I kept:
-WA-8 is entirely within Western Washington.
-WA-3 extends into Eastern Washington via the Columbia River and Satus Pass.
-WA-1 is entirely on one side of the Puget Sound.

Realistic compromises:
-WA-2 keeps Everett.
-WA-1 takes in a bunch of suburban/exurban/rural Snohomish County instead of Everett.
-WA-9 keeps East Tacoma (I would've liked the entire city in one district), since Smith lives there.
-WA-9 takes in the rest of Renton, East Renton, and Kent from WA-8. These areas are largely Democratic, and moving them gives Reichert a safer district. Reichert takes in some more of suburban Pierce, which is Republican, in return.
-WA-6 keeps Mason County, which is where Dicks live. I ended up throwing in Clallam and Jefferson in, too, to keep the area more compact-looking. I would have liked the entire peninsula in WA-10.
-WA-10 loses the peninsula, and takes in more of suburban Pierce instead.

Other changes
-To make up for its losses to WA-10, WA-9 not only takes Renton/Kent etc. from the 8th but has to take some of the cities south of Seattle from WA-7. The border between the 7th and 9th is now exactly along the city of Seattle border, with one exception (a precinct in unincorporated White Center is kept in WA-7).
-WA-7 is, with the exception of that one precinct, made up exactly of Seattle, Vashon Island, and Shoreline.
-WA-1 makes up for losing Shoreline and its part of Seattle by taking the rest of Lake Forest Park, and also gets to keep Redmond now (which, remember, Reichert doesn't want in WA-8).

Voting numbers
-WA-1: 56.2% Murray to 54.4% Murray. Should remain lean Democratic, unless a certain someone moves there.
-WA-2: 50.5% Murray to 51.2% Murray. Larsen only gets a bit safer, but averts the major risk of losing ~100,000 person Everett (which usually votes close to 60% Democrat), which would have put him in a Rossi district.
-WA-3: 52.6% Rossi to 54.6% Rossi. Herrera gets safer without Olympia. Although this district seems fairly Republican already (for Western Washington, at least), it always seem to easily re-elect Baird, and there is a decent Democratic bench in SW WA that Herrerra obviously wants to protect herself from.
-WA-4: Who cares? Safe R.
-WA-5: Who cares? Safe R.
-WA-6: 53.0% Murray to 53.2% Murray. Dicks keeps the seat for life, as if it was ever in doubt.
-WA-7: Who cares? Safe D.
-WA-8: 50.8% Rossi to 51.8% Rossi. Reichert gets a bit more of a cushion in a district he's never managed to win by a large margin. The number could probably increased a bit with more tinkering of the boundary between the 8th and the 9th. He could of course get 1-2 points more Republican with Eastern Washington, though... But plz no!
-WA-9: 52.8% Murray to 55.7% Murray. Smith gets safer, not that he really needed it. I suppose it could hypothetically help if someone like Skip Priest challenged him, though.
-WA-10: Supposed to be a swing district with a slight tilt to the Democrats (and by the Democrats I'm referring to boring Denny Heck. Perhaps if we're lucky Cheryl Crist will run again). It's 50.6% Murray in my map, so I think it meets that requirement.

[bgwah]

Dang, still stuck in with Lewis county. And Bgwah, what's so bad about Heck? He actually seems to be pretty on top of things to me (and ran a pretty good race last year considering the wave).

It seems pretty likely that Thurston and Lewis will end up in the same district. And Denny Heck is boring, that's what!

[bgwah]

Sad face yourself.

Now comment on my map!

[bgwah]

I think it's pretty realistic. The only critique I'd have is to have the 1st and 2nd try to trade some territory to make the 2nd more Democratic and the 1st more Republican.

I can tinker with the border a bit more. I don't want it to look too goofy by having some weird tentacle going even further into SW Snohomish.

I may also tinker a bit more with the Yakima area.

I'm thinking I'll probably "submit" something like this as my map though. I know it's probably fairly pointless and the commission doesn't care at all and the whole process is just supposed to make it look like they care what the public thinks, but it can't hurt to try!

[bgwah]

I think it's pretty realistic. The only critique I'd have is to have the 1st and 2nd try to trade some territory to make the 2nd more Democratic and the 1st more Republican.

I can tinker with the border a bit more. I don't want it to look too goofy by having some weird tentacle going even further into SW Snohomish.

I may also tinker a bit more with the Yakima area.

I'm thinking I'll probably "submit" something like this as my map though. I know it's probably fairly pointless and the commission doesn't care at all and the whole process is just supposed to make it look like they care what the public thinks, but it can't hurt to try!

They do take public input into account... just so long as it doesn't really affect the partisan outcome of the final maps.

How inspiring.

Do you think I should submit my map? I really don't want be in some awful Bellevue-to-Wentachee district!

[bgwah]

Monday the 15th is the deadline for submitting your own maps.

[bgwah]

Drafts should be released today!!

though that made turn into a sad face if the horror stories of an 8th Reich-mander are true

[bgwah]

[bgwah]

wow they might actually be doing a majority-minority district...

[bgwah]

I think I missed Ceis' proposal. But anyway, here is Huffs. I kinda want to vomit. This map is disgusting.

The only bright spot is that Sammamish is in WA-1 now, which actually seems quite random since Issaquah is still in WA-8... I wonder if this was because... LOL.

Here are some screen shots until better maps surface:

[bgwah]

Here is Gorton's plan:

[bgwah]

I'm watching the public commentaries. It's been 100% minorities who support the majority-minority district thus far.

[bgwah]

Well I missed the Democratic maps apparently. Interesting to see Republicans actively supporting the majority-minority district in an effort to concentrate Democratic votes and give them more seats... But this happens in other states, just didn't think it would happen here.

[bgwah]

I was hoping for a more united Eastside. Instead we might get split not between two but four districts. I really don't think a majority-minority district (that would still be majority white voters anyway) is worth butchering the rest of the Puget Sound districts.

I wonder if Denny Heck is crying in a corner right now...?

[bgwah]

And another thought: could the proposed "majority-minority" WA-10 actually be better for Kucinich than WA-01 or an Olympia-based WA-10? A safe, open Democratic seat that will have a very divided primary for the Democratic side... He just might be able to slip through. And if he did somehow make it to the general, he would probably fare better than he would in the other districts.

[bgwah]

All four proposals have been posted:

http://redistricting.wa.gov/maps.asp

[bgwah]

These maps are just so amateur...

And yes, Meeker, it was today! I'm surprised you haven't been following. Looks like Heck might get shafted, with Smith taking Olympia so as to leave South King County for a "majority-minority" district.

[bgwah]

These maps are just so amateur...

And yes, Meeker, it was today! I'm surprised you haven't been following. Looks like Heck might get shafted, with Smith taking Olympia so as to leave South King County for a "majority-minority" district.

I think you may have misunderstood the tone of my post.

Then share your opinions!