Canadian Election 2019

[Foucaulf]

I haven't been following this election closely this time, but I can't believe it's looking like the Bloc is going to come back in force. I swear Quebec is the one province I don't think I'll ever be able to understand no matter how hard I try. If that is the case, it does seem to me like Quebec will be reverting to something pre-2011 as it always seemed to me that the Orange Wave was primarily a result of the collapse of the Bloc. It seems to me like Quebec is most looking like 2000, just with a stronger Conservative Party drawing roughly equally from the Liberals and Bloc.

The triumphant revival of the BQ is probably going to the forgotten story of this election

This is a ridiculous statement. How will the BQ surge be a "forgotten story" if they get 30-40 more seats over the last election? Maybe I buy what you're saying if you're saying Anglophone pundits can't explain why the Bloc is on the rise again, but this is not news.

There are only a few Canadian pundits in the non-Quebec press who are fluently bilingual and have a pulse on the mood of Quebeckers. Chantal Hébert is widely considered to be one of them. So you can start with her explanation of the Bloc surge:

By now, most Quebec voters know that the Conservative governments of New Brunswick and Ontario are the least francophone-friendly to have ruled those two provinces in decades. They know Scheer’s counterparts in the Prairies expect a Conservative government to override Quebec’s objections to the construction of a pipeline through the province to the East Coast.

Finally, add to the mix the conviction — widespread in francophone quarters in Quebec — that the Conservative opposition in the House of Commons would not have been as relentless in its pursuit of the SNC-Lavalin affair if the company had been based in Ontario. Given all of the above, the real surprise is that Scheer’s Conservatives did not expect Quebecers to turn away from their party.

...At the same time, many of them do not trust the Liberal leader to have their backs. They stack the suggestion that Trudeau would not impose a pipeline on Quebec against the extraordinary efforts his government expended on forcing the Trans Mountain expansion on an unwilling British Columbia government.

The thing is Quebec never fully committed to an idea of a multicultural Canada that Anglophone Canada (or at least Anglophone Canada's cities) has embraced since the 80s. Approval for the secularism/headscarf ban bill doesn't reflect some shift in attitudes after the CAQ got elected, but rather a feeling of solidarity against Anglophone Canada's unwillingness to compromise on the issue. Whether you think Legault is in the right or wrong, he isn't one to compromise and is someone who presses on federal leaders to "keep their word" to Quebec voters.

The other thing is Quebec voters aren't that different from any other swing voters. They have priorities and don't mind flipping over to another party if they trust them more. Most people in this thread no longer find it weird that Obama-Trump voters exist. Why is a BQ-NDP-BQ voter any weirder than that?

[Foucaulf]

(Crossposted from AAD)

I'm not gonna attempt to predict this election. Instead, here are 40 "battleground ridings" I think are worth following in detail tomorrow and on election night. Feel free to point out errors, my advantage is in BC and nowhere else.

ONTARIO
Davenport - A repeat of the 2015 matchup between the LPC and NDP candidates in one of the NDP's few pickup targets in the City of Toronto.
Brampton East - Jagmeet Singh's old provincial riding covered this area, a heavily Sikh area that could also portend a swing away from the LPC across that ethnic group.
Scarborough-Agincourt - The most Chinese riding in the country should be an early harbinger of Chinese swings, which I'm skeptical polls are getting right.
Richmond Hill - lots of Chinese and Iranians in this riding, and drama surrounding candidate selection should make this a Tory pickup, unless...
Mississauga-Lakeshore - One of the more marginal Mississauga seats, I think the Tories have put a lot of effort into this upper-income riding but could be for naught.
King-Vaughan - This "white ethnic," affluent 905 seat should be an easy pickup for the Tories if not for Doug Ford backlash; toss-up now.
York Centre - A suburban seat in demographic transition, this is the kind of seat Tories want to invest in to maintain a foothold in Toronto.
Cambridge - A marginal LPC/CPC seat in the non-GTA Tri-Cities area may not be so marginal after all if the Liberals have a decisive ON lead.
Whitby - A bedroom community on the GTA's east end is changing quickly enough for this to be marginal for the CPC.
Peterborough-Kawartha - The most famous bellwether riding in the country, voting for the governing party in all but four elections.
Orléans - Ottawa suburbs with a sizable francophone population. The question isn't whether the LPC loses it, but how much do the francophones exact revenge on Ford and the CPC.
Essex - A NDP-CPC marginal worth looking out for, as a hold here means Singh didn't alienate his party's white working class supporters after all.

QUEBEC
Beauce - Maxime Bernier's riding, where he should be facing a tough challenge from the CPC candidate regardless of provincial trends.
Berthier-Maskinogé - Ruth Ellen Brosseau's riding.
Laurier-Sainte-Marie - Gilles Duceppe's old riding, this young "bobo" community sees a three-way between the NDP, Bloc and Liberals.
Sherbrooke - Another three-way in this college town/manufacturing hub, and one a rising NDP may retain in the end.
Trois-Rivières - Yet another three-way riding, Trois-Rivières is where you want to check how Francophone "soft nationalists" split between the parties.
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup - A very Catholic and pretty rural riding has a classic matchup between the CPC and BQ.
Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine - A surprisingly swingy district covering the Gaspé peninsula's tip, where the incumbent Liberal minister has a fighting chance.
Louis-Hébert - A riding that hasn't reelected an incumbent for 30 years should be a Liberal marginal - if the opposition isn't split.
Longueuil-Saint-Hubert - A sign of whether or not the Bloc can seize Montreal's South Shore suburbs.
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot - A nationalist community that's gotta be flipping to the Bloc if the Bloc surge is at all real.

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Vancouver Granville - Jody Wilson-Reybould's seat. This seat's demographics makes it an intrinsic three-way between LPC, CPC and NDP, but JWR's run turns it into an insane four-way race.
Vancouver South - The most ethnically diverse seat in Vancouver has a repeat matchup between LPC minister Sajjan and former CPC MP/perennial candidate Wai Young.
Burnaby North-Seymour - Fiercely contested in 2015, this riding has a growing Chinese presence with a CPC candidate scandal: is that enough to make the race a Liberal hold?
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam - A marginal NDP-Liberal area on the provincial level, this riding is a testing ground for whether the CPC can benefit from a NDP/LPC split.
Delta - A middle-class but ethnically heterogeneous riding, I kind of agree that a LPC/CPC race here will be a bellwether for the parties' performances across the province.
Surrey Centre - This slice of Punjabi suburbia is a testing ground for Jagmeet Singh's appeal, having swung towards the NDP or BC Liberals depending on the ground game.
Courtenay—Alberni - the more right-leaning section of Vancouver Island has the potential of a three-way between the CPC, NDP and Greens.
Victoria - The Greens can make a major breakthrough if they take the very NDP and very "hippie" BC capitol riding.
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon - The one Fraser Valley riding I can think of that's competitive, though the CPC has serious problems if they can't pick it up.
Skeena-Bulkley Valley - A functional NDP should win this riding of port cities and Native communities, even if incumbent Nathan Cullen retired.

PRAIRIES
Edmonton-Strathcona - the only Alberta seat that may not go to the CPC, depending on if anti-Scheer forces rally behind the NDP candidate.
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - Spanning norther Saskatchewan, this is another seat the NDP should win if the party still has credibility from the Native community.
Winnipeg South - LPC/CPC marginal that's a test of whether incumbency advantages matter (current LPC MP Duguid has a good reputation)
Regina-Lewvan - The other NDP/CPC marginal in Saskatchewan, wide open after the incumbent was implicated in a sexual harassment scandal.

MARITIMES
St. John's East - Iconic and mercurial politician Jack Harris aims to take this Newfoundland seat back again for the NDP.
Fredericton - Maybe the only LPC/CPC/Green three-way this election in New Brunswick's capital.
South Shore-St. Margarets - A traditionally competitive seat that doesn't seem like it due to LPC Minister Bernadette Jordan. Check this to see if the Tories do better than expected in the Maritimes.
Fundy Royal - Anglophone and Conservative riding in NB that shouldn't be held by a Liberal. If the Tories can't pick this up, they're in serious trouble.

[Foucaulf]

What caused the Green collapse? Did May do a blackface skit singing "Ragged but Right" or something?

Nothing complicated. Elizabeth May seems sensible if you let her talk for 5 minutes and less sensible if you let her talk for 50

[Foucaulf]

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Let's not overhype this (LPC supporters talking about bias against them from the CBC? Give me a break). The Tory vote share in Ontario 2019 looks like it'll be 33.2%. In 2015, it was 35.0%. It's embarrassing that the CPC didn't grow their share in Ontario, but the persuasion that mattered took place between 2011-5 rather than from 2015 to the present.

The problem is more or less what's highlighted in the following graph: it seems as if there are now about 6-8% of Ontario voters who categorically reject the CPC but not the LPC. In the past two races, we've seen them be concerned enough to vote for a Liberal "status quo." And I think part of this has to do with the CPC being dominated by western politicians, a class of MPs who remember Stephen Harper's talking points but none of the PCs who came before them.

https://twitter.com/NickKouvalis/status/1186077457046294529

Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

We're in a bizarre situation where every separate region - Ontario, Quebec, Prairies, even BC I guess - is saying the problem comes from every other region not willing to compromise. I had hoped an election would solve these tensions, but instead has further accentuated them; even the best debate (the French consortium one) seemed to spend more time on the scope of federal powers rather than a discussion over how the regions can better manage their economic futures.

I think the long-run trend of Canadian growth over the past 30 years is reaching a turning point. There was a fad in the 90s for Canada to become a tech hub, manufacturing hubs and to create world-class cities comparable with European metropoles. That was a hard task and it was abandoned quickly by the mid-00s. Instead, the country has relied on resources-driven growth as before. Not just exporting Canada's oil and resources, but also for example exporting our clean air and nice views to pump up the real estate market or the movie production sector.

If Canada committed to that kind of economy, we could've staved off the harsh tradeoff every industrialized economy faces between growth slowdown and decarbonization. Canada didn't. We're facing the tradeoffs now.