$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Person Man]

Say the Republicans do basically get whatever they want and are allowed to. Do they take what they want from Trump and then are done with him or do they basically finally become Trump's employees and are absorbed into his "Organization"?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, here we go. Senate now voting on motion by Sen. Nelson to send the bill back to committee.

[Person Man]

Okay, here we go. Senate now voting on motion by Sen. Nelson to send the bill back to committee.

That's why what McConnell is doing is called the "nuclear option". There is now no stopping the democrats from doing whatever they want to make order in the Senate as difficult as possible. This is what McConnell bargained for when he decided to lock out the opposition. With just a week left before a shutdown.. I don't see this ending cleanly.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Flake is a yes https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/936641964086317056

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If McConnell can get just one of Lankford/Corker/Collins, the bill should pass.

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Lean Support: N/A

Likely Support:
Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 47 GOP Senators


Overall: 49 SUPPORT,  48 AGAINST, 3 TOSS-UP

[Matty]

Flake is a yes

I'm starting to think everyone but corker and Collins was a yes all along and was just trying to fake caring. About deficit

[Matty]

McConnell says he has the votes to reporters

[Matty]

Flake is a yes

I'm starting to think everyone but corker and Collins was a yes all along and was just trying to fake caring. About deficit

haha anyone who thought Corker and Flake and Johnson were anything but yes votes all along shouldn't comment on politics.

The reason I thought corker and flake were going to be tough to get is because they are both retiring (nothing to lose), and both dislike Donald trump

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Nelson to send the bill back to committee fails 48-52. Senate now voting on a similar motion by Sen. Baldwin.

[Matty]

The motion by Sen. Nelson to send the bill back to committee fails 48-52. Senate now voting on a similar motion by Sen. Baldwin.

Might be a dumb question, but is a senator allowed to start as many motions as they like?

It seems like the ten or so motions since last night have all been started by different democrats

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Collins votes for this, she is going to lose in 2020.

[Matty]

Collins is a yes according to Andy slavitt, who is citing McConnell himself

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Baldwin to send the bill back to committee fails 48-52.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next Vote: 2 ET: Cardin motion to send bill back to committee.

[Matty]

Next Vote: 2 ET: Cardin motion to send bill back to committee.

My god, when will this end? This is so silly even if within the rules

[Person Man]

Next Vote: 2 ET: Cardin motion to send bill back to committee.

My god, when will this end? This is so silly even if within the rules

This is what McConnell bargained for when he decided to go nuclear on tax reform.

[All Along The Watchtower]

So when this (presumably) passes the Democrats should hang every aspect of this monstrosity around the neck of every Republican officeholder in the country. And if they don't win in a historic landslide next year, I will officially have lost faith in everything.

[Person Man]

So when this (presumably) passes the Democrats should hang every aspect of this monstrosity around the neck of every Republican officeholder in the country. And if they don't win in a historic landslide next year, I will officially have lost faith in everything.

Or that the Democratic Party has totally failed in opposition.

[BudgieForce]

I'm eager to see whats actually in this tax bill. I think the corporate tax cut is too deep but I still think a cut is a good thing. Collins salt amendment should also make things easier for middle class families, although I have my doubts it survives Paul Ryan.

[Matty]

So when this (presumably) passes the Democrats should hang every aspect of this monstrosity around the neck of every Republican officeholder in the country. And if they don't win in a historic landslide next year, I will officially have lost faith in everything.

Stop being so dramatic. You can argue that it's stupid to add 1 trillion to deficit over ten years (which really isn't even a fraction of our current total debt) , but the bill itself is not radical in how it affects the after tax incomes of the American people. The vast majority of people will see a 1-3% decrease in their tax bill

Our politics is just too hysterical right now and I am tired of the faux outrage

[All Along The Watchtower]

So when this (presumably) passes the Democrats should hang every aspect of this monstrosity around the neck of every Republican officeholder in the country. And if they don't win in a historic landslide next year, I will officially have lost faith in everything.

Stop being so dramatic. You can argue that it's stupid to add 1 trillion to deficit over ten years (which really isn't even a fraction of our current total debt) , but the bill itself is not radical in how it affects the after tax incomes of the American people. The vast majority of people will see a 1-3% decrease in their tax bill

Our politics is just too hysterical right now and I am tired of the faux outrage

The vast majority of people do not make over $70k a year.

[Matty]

I'm eager to see whats actually in this tax bill. I think the corporate tax cut is too deep but I still think a cut is a good thing. Collins salt amendment should also make things easier for middle class families, although I have my doubts it survives Paul Ryan.

Obama wanted corp tax reduced to 25%. Was it a "massive giveaway to the rich" then?

[JohnCA246]

If I understood correctly, the House bill could really raise taxes on people like me on graduation tuition waivers at private universities by taxing the waiver as income.  Many of us have very little money and loads of debt, and they want to act like we are high rollers. I should be out by the time this would go into effect, and take limited courses at the moment, but man...

I don't know the details, so I would love if someone could explain this isn't as bad as it sounds.

[Dr. Arch]

If I understood correctly, the House bill could really raise taxes on people like me on graduation tuition waivers at private universities by taxing the waiver as income.  Many of us have very little money and loads of debt, and they want to act like we are high rollers. I should be out by the time this would go into effect, and take limited courses at the moment, but man...

I don't know the details, so I would love if someone could explain this isn't as bad as it sounds.

No, it is just as bad as it sounds.

[junior chįmp]

I'm glad theyre passing it. Only makes 2018 worse for them