PA- Wick polling- Oz +5

[Hollywood]

Democrats have a warped viewpoint of their overall strength due to bad polls their side has been consistently churning out for the last two years.  The reliance on Registered Voter Methods utilized for surveying and weighting respondents is clearly flawed given the Republican over-performance in PA, OH, FL, WI, MI, etc. exit polls.  In 2020, Republicans outvoted Democrats in PA by 41-40 percent, and Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump by 1.2 points (80,000 votes).  This is much closer than Democrat Pollsters calculated.  

In the Wick Poll, Biden's margin is 1.5 percent over Trump (48.5-47%) instead of 1.2%.  The problem for Democrats is clearly evident from the number of Trump Voters remaining loyal to the party while the Biden Coalition has significantly fractured.  Some have complained that the Conservative Ideology is too high among the voters, but that is divided into two groups (21% Very Conservative and 23% Somewhat Conservative).  That rings true to me.  PA Populations from Pittsburgh to the Poconos is generally conservative, and I imagine some of the black christians in Philly would count themselves among that population.  

Democrats should have learned their lesson after VA, and the close-call in NJ, after the 2021 Election.  Republicans will get over 90% of the Trump 2020 Voters while Democrats will lose 15-25% of those Biden supporters that were mostly just panicked about Trump.    

    

 

[Hollywood]

We have to just wait two more weeks for the polls to close but we are in an Endemic with no stimulus checks it won't make a difference if Rs get back in they just gonna get blamed like Trump did like Liz Trus did

We lost Edays before in 2010 we lost 60 H seats and Obama still got reelected  with a 242 RH

Biden will bear the vast majority of blame for the current economic situation just as European Leaders on both ends of the political spectrum are receiving harsh reactions from their populations.  It's pretty obvious that left-wingers like Angela Merkel are blamed for providing Russia with the economic leverage and political environment to invade Ukraine.  Had it not been for Boris Johnson whipping the other NATO members into action, the European response would have been far more delayed by German and French lefties.  Sticking his neck out to lead the charge against Russia is probably not something lefties should criticize.  

Biden is not Obama.  Obama had leadership qualities, and a team that greatly aided his political strategy/maneuvering.  He was very successful in building a decent amount of trust with the American people, because he appeared humble and genuine.  Biden's doesn't even have the trust of his staff.