Spanish General Election 2011

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, I really didn't expect that move.

I'd like to be as optimist as Julio, but if the PSOE loses it will really be shame.

[Foucaulf]

I don't think this is a good move, but it's not a bad move either. Hashemite covered why it's not a good move, but it's not a bad move because it's minimizing risk. Every extra day Spain hangs around in the Eurozone is an increase in probability for a crisis of some sort. As some creditors intend on making a debt meltdown a self-fulfilling prophecy, who knows what the fiscal condition of Spain will be by early 2012?

Statistics filler:
If the PSOE is kicked into opposition this election, there will definitely be 3.5 left-wing governments in Europe: Cyprus, Greece, Slovenia and Austria (the .5). A left-wing victory in Denmark would make that 4.5.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the European Union, that is. Outside you have Norway and Iceland, along with some of the Balkans governments.

[republicanism]

And technically, Switzerland is another 0.25.

[Beet]

Might be thinking that there's no point in stretching things out any further.

The earlier the better, actually.

[Niemeyerite]

People, I'm not saying Rubalcaba will win. I'm saying he CAN win with a good campaign. Rajoy's campaign is supposed to be awful, as usual. But I know there are many people who voted PSOE in 2004 and 2008 and won't vote anytime soon. That's a huge handicap if we want to win... on the other hand, we have the young people, the 15-M protesters, and some communist who could vote PSOE because they know Rubalcaba is an "old-guard" (vieja guardia) socialist, and a honest person. He's to the left of Zapatero, but he needs to demonstrate that. there are many socialist voters who are dissatisfied with PSOE because they think the party has become too capitalist.

PP begins with 10 million votes. In a good day, Rajoy could get as much as 11.5 or 12 million votes.
PSOE begins with 7.5 milion votes, I think.
IU has right now 1.5 million votes, more or less.
Nationalists from the left or from the right should be given 2 million votes, I guess.
UPyD, 600.000 votes.
Undecideds are 3 million people.

Rubalcaba has to do the same Zapatero did in 2008: pick 1/3 of IU voters, pick 50% of the Nationalist vote and 60-70% of the undecideds. PP's vote is stabilished. It won't grow a lot, but it won't fall, either. At the ends, 1 in 20 PP voters will vote Rubalcaba (that's what analysts are saying).
UPyD has to "explode". Their leader, a former socialist, Rosa Diez, is supposed to be hurting the two big parties. But I'm sure her electorate prefers Rubalcaba overr Rajoy. And UPyD's voters DON'T stay at home.
so, 7 millions + 500.000 IU voters + 800.000 nationalist votes + 200.000 UPyD's + 2 millions undecideds = 10.5 Million votes. And I guess PP will finish with 11 or 11.5 Million votes. Rubalcaba may not win, but the election will be close =) Rajoy won't have a majority in the Parliament, at least.

What does Rubalcaba need to do?? Turn left (he's doing exactly that) and show to the people he's turning to the left, too. Then, campaign HARD, really HARD, in Euskadi, Catalunya, Andalucia and Valencia. A majority of the undecided and nationalist vote comes from there.
He should have some respected politicians as head of the list in those communities:
Carme Chacon for Catalunya,
Rosa Aguilar (former major of Cordoba, former IU member) and Felipe Gonzalez for Andalucia (believe me, RbCb's trying to get him involved in the campaign),
José Bono and Jose Maria Barreda in Castilla-La Mancha,
Maria Teresa Fdez. de la Vega in Valencia,
José Blanco in Galicia,
Guillermo Fernandez Vara (and if it's possible, Rodriguez Ibarra) in Extremadura,
Juan Fernando Lopez Aguilar in Canarias (really important if he wants to pick nationalists there),
Vicente Alvarez-Areces in Asturias (too old, I don't think he'll want to campaign, but, if he does, Asturias will vote PSOE)
...

PSOE's bench is formidable. Rubalcaba has to get them involved. And if Javier Solana gets involved in the campaign, I think Rajoy will have some headaches ¨

[Keystone Phil]

You know what this means right? Battle of the Beards - Spanish Style


   vs.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has Rubalcaba stolen one of my ties?

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

[MaxQue]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

CiU and PNV won't hurt PP. There aren't many potentially PP voters in Catalunya or the Basque country. In catalunya, PP share will increase, for sure, but Rajoy will have to keep his voters in Valencia, Galicia and Madrid, so he won't spend much time in Catalunya (Rubalcaba will).
Remember one thing: while PP margin over PSOE was of 10 points in the las local elections, PP only had 38% of the vote (only 1% more than in 2007). So, really, PP hasn't got more room to improve their numbers. And in the campaign, Rajoy knows he'll loose some points, too. What he's trying right now (and I'm seeing it on TV) is to stay quiet, not say anything and keep things going on. he's "sleeping", because he's a loser-machine, and everything he says, makes him loose voters. that won't work forever, I hope.

[Hash]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

[Hash]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

[Keystone Phil]

Please, everyone, don't post here unless you know exactly as much as Hash. I would say you can post if you know more but obviously no one has greater knowledge.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Remember folks, the PSOE has a tradition of underpolling at general election time.

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

Nationalist don't take support away from the PP. Nationalists hurt PSOE, and viceversa. A conservative CiU or PNV nationalist can vote PSOE to keep PP out of the Presidency (see 2008).
There's a poll from EL PAIS today which says it's PP 44% PSOE 31%. The good thing is that rubalcaba, again, is seen as a better candidate. And that only 52% of socialist are voting Rubalcaba because:
1) They don't care about the election because they think PP will win anyways.
2) Zapatero has upseted them with his "capitalist" economic policies.

They say, however, that Rubalcaba can make a comeback if he continues to move to the left and people start to think he has an option.

[minionofmidas]

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Please, everyone, don't post here unless you know exactly as much as Hash. I would say you can post if you know more but obviously no one has greater knowledge.

There's a difference between talking about something you don't know, and making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about. A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

The PP is the incarnation of everything regionalists fight against. 99% of nationalist voters would never ever vote for the PP, no matter what their views on economy are.

[Hash]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

You're lucky it's the morning and I feel generous.
"nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right [...]" That is one of the biggest false statements I've heard.

While it is true that Basque and Catalan nationalism are in plurality right-wing, and they have clear reasons for being right-wing; what holds the PNV and CiU together is not acting as a conservative-party-for-the-region a la UPN but rather nationalism. Both parties appeal beyond basic conservatism and the right. While perhaps in a totally alternate universe where there's no such thing as Basque and Catalan nationalism and everybody there loves Spain, maybe the PP would be strong.

If the PP is weak in those regions it is because it carries opinions contrary to those of a majority of voters. It is because it is the voice of Spanish nationalism and has a clear record of opposing much devolution, although the Aznar 96-00 government did indeed devolve powers which had yet to be devolved. The Catalan PP is the only party, with the Cs, which is not even moderately Catalanist, which a vast majority of Catalan voters (80%+) are. Its strongholds are not rural Catalonia, but rather the least nationalist coastal region around Barcelona. The Basque PP is the most vocal representative of Spanish nationalism in Euskadi. If it has such a base in Euskadi today it is only because Basque nationalism unlike Catalanism is not some broad consensus shared by 8 in 10 Basques, but rather a polarizing ideology which has its fair share of opponents, a lot stemming from the fact that many people in Euskadi don't even understand Euskara and have historically hated Basque nationalists. It also has a base as the most vocal opponent of ETA's terror, which has allowed it to take in a lot of votes from ETA opponents. Normally, people who hate ETA don't normally vote PNV, you know.

While the CiU and PNV have both cooperated with the PP, they did so for clear reasons of necessity. The CiU is closer to the PP because they're moderates, but there is very bad blood between the PNV and PP ever since roughly 1998 (and before, obviously. I doubt the Gernika Survivors Club is fond of Manuel Fraga's party) when the PNV chose the path of alliances with other nationalists including the abertzales instead of the 1980s cooperation with Socialists. It is infinitely clear that the PP does NOT lose support to nationalists because the two take votes from very, very different groups of voters. Those Euskara speakers in, say, Gernika who vote PNV would rather eat their feces than vote for a party which a lot see as the Falange reincarnated. They are much, much more likely to vote abertzale; and, in general, for Socialists.

I don't think you grasp how Basque and Catalan nationalism is not just some cute regionalism about defending a cute language like in Bretagne, but rather a real vision of Spain and vision of the world which is a defining societal and political thing. For them, there's a lot more to nationalism than speaking Catalan/Euskara with friends in a bar. They have a vision of Spain which is different, very much so in the PP's case, from the rest of Spain's vision (broadly speaking and acting as if Galician nationalists are not there). So, yes, please stop "making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about" because it is very annoying.

[ZuWo]

Please, everyone, don't post here unless you know exactly as much as Hash. I would say you can post if you know more but obviously no one has greater knowledge.

There's a difference between talking about something you don't know, and making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about. A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

Oh, I wouldn't say European posters are generally any better when it comes to sharing their views on American politics.

[Keystone Phil]

A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

And when it comes to European posters talking about American elections...

[minionofmidas]

A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

And when it comes to European posters talking about American elections...

Oh, there's plenty of American idiots on the relevant boards who are so idiotic that we slip right under the radar unless you look hard.