LA Times Poll Kerry up 51-44 (without Nader) Kerry up 48-42 (with Nader)

[Smash255]

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll10jun10,1,1874410.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[Smash255]

is it a good poll institute?

This thing is a ^&^&ing disaster internally

The had a hugely too democratic a sample, and then the weighted it to make it even more democratic.

After weighting the sample has 14% (!!) more democrats that Republicans

Kerry wins democrats  89/8 (+81)
Bush wins Republicans 92/3 (+88)
Bush wins Indys 49/46 (+3)   

   LA Times National Sample            
            
   DEM   GOP   IND   
   0.43   0.29   0.28   
            
Bush   8   92   49   
   0.43   0.29   0.28   
   3.44   26.68   13.72   43.84
            
Kerry   89   3   46   
   0.43   0.29   0.28   
   38.27   0.87   12.88   52.02
            
Rasmussen Weighting            
            
   DEM   GOP   IND   
   0.38   0.35   0.27   
            
Bush   8   92   49   
   0.38   0.35   0.27   
   3.04   32.2   13.23   48.47
            
Kerry   89   3   46   
   0.38   0.35   0.27   
   33.82   1.05   12.42   47.29
            
Zogby Weighting            
            
   DEM   GOP   IND   
   0.37   0.35   0.28   
            
Bush   8   92   49   
   0.37   0.35   0.28   
   2.96   32.2   13.72   48.88
            
Kerry   89   3   46   
   0.37   0.35   0.28   
   32.93   1.05   12.88   46.86

Note enough info on states to do a breakout by party

Interesting notes on states:


   

The weight is too high for Democrats, but the breakouts per party make very little sense.  For example Bush is running stong with republicans in most polls, but 92/3 is completley absurd.  So when yo re-weight it using Rasmussen or Zogby's party % it is off a bit because no way is Bush +89 in Republicans pretty much every poll shows it in the +78- +81 range.  By the way where did you get the party breakout info from??

[Smash255]

The weight is too high for Democrats, but the breakouts per party make very little sense.  For example Bush is running stong with republicans in most polls, but 92/3 is completley absurd.  So when yo re-weight it using Rasmussen or Zogby's party % it is off a bit because no way is Bush +89 in Republicans pretty much every poll shows it in the +78- +81 range.  By the way where did you get the party breakout info from??

I have posted a .pdf of the full poll breakout.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=4566

I took the breakouts by party ID from this document.

I actually made a mistake, the poll was 51/44 bush not 52/44 so there are "only" 12.5% more democrats than republicans.

This poll "pushes" the leaners which explains both the 5% undexided and the 92/3 Bush advantage among the GOP.

Kerry at 88/7 reflects a similar push of Dem leaners.

True, but if the polls is pushing leaners why would Kerry be getting only 3% of the Rep vote.  Most polls, even those that don't push the leaners show him getting 7-8% of that vote.  Anyway point being the poll definatley has too many Democrats, but his Republican support his high in every poll, but this poll is much stronger Republican support than the others so that is a biit off also.  So while you can't take the overall #'s seriously because of the overpolling of Dems its hard to transform these numbers into the Rasmussen or Zogby weighting to get a fair picture because his Republican support looks too high in this poll (92/3??))