Which GOP Senators are likely to become Blue Dog Democrats?

[Maxwell]

Susan Collins has gotten more conservative since starting her tenure as a Senator, not less.

[Maxwell]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

[Maxwell]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

Is the GOP base in Arizona hostile to McCain?

McCain barely held against one criminal huckster and moron (JD Hayworth) and one lunatic (Kelli Ward), so you tell me. 

But McCain is too conservative to ever actually make the party switch.

[Maxwell]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

Is the GOP base in Arizona hostile to McCain?

McCain barely held against one criminal huckster and moron (JD Hayworth) and one lunatic (Kelli Ward), so you tell me. 

But McCain is too conservative to ever actually make the party switch.

except he beat them both down handily.

by Republican primary standards? not that handily. Especially for how awful both Hayworth and Ward are. Honestly Hayworth and Ward are the kind of people who should get single digits in a primary.

I have to give McCain credit though - his ads against Hayworth are hilarious.