Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105529/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Edges-Ahead-Clinton.aspx

Obama - 48%
Clinton - 45%

..................

McCain - 47
Clinton - 45

McCain - 46
Obama - 44

[Democratic Hawk]

The most recent favorables from Gallup (18 March 2008)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105073/McCains-67-Favorable-Rating-Highest-Eight-Years.aspx

McCain: Favorable 67% - Unfavorable 27%
Obama: Favorable 62% - Unfavorable 33%
Clinton: Favorable 53% - Unfavorable 44%

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain: Favorable 67% - Unfavorable 27%
Obama: Favorable 62% - Unfavorable 33%

Er... inflated much?

I don't know. I can only report Gallup's findings

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen and Gallup are giving me a headache.

Rasmussen right now is depressing me unutterably ; Gallup, on the other hand, ... don't seem so bad

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday 24 March, 2008

Obama - 47%
Clinton - 46%

..................

McCain - 47%
Clinton - 45%

McCain - 47%
Obama - 44%

[Democratic Hawk]

Clinton, Obama Closely Matched Among Jewish Voters (24 March, 2008)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105595/Clinton-Obama-Closely-Matched-Among-Jewish-Democrats.aspx

Clinton 48% - Obama 43%

Among Catholics

Clinton 56% (White 57%; Non-white 53%) - Obama 37% (White 34%; Non-white 42%)

Among Protestants

Clinton 44% (White 56%; Non-White 25%) - Obama 47% (White 34%; Non-white 70%)

Among Non-Judeo-Christians

Clinton 32% - Obama 61%

Among No Religion

Clinton 40% - Obama 54%

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 25 March, 2008

Obama - 47%
Clinton - 45%

..................

McCain - 46%
Clinton - 45%

McCain - 45%
Obama - 44%

[Democratic Hawk]

If McCain vs Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go For McCain (26 March, 2008)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx

Clinton supporters who would vote for McCain over Obama - 28%

Obama supporters who would vote for McCain over Clinton - 19%

If Obama vs McCain in the general:

1. Support for Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination: Obama 59% - McCain 28%

2. Support for Obama for the Democratic Party nomination: Obama 96% - McCain 3%

If Clinton vs McCain in the general:

1. Support for Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination: Clinton 96% - McCain 3%

2. Support for Obama for the Democratic Party nomination: Clinton 72% - McCain 19%

[Democratic Hawk]

If McCain vs Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go For McCain (26 March, 2008)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx

Clinton supporters who would vote for McCain over Obama - 28%

Obama supporters who would vote for McCain over Clinton - 19%

If Obama vs McCain in the general:

1. Support for Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination: Obama 59% - McCain 28%

2. Support for Obama for the Democratic Party nomination: Obama 96% - McCain 3%

If Clinton vs McCain in the general:

1. Support for Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination: Clinton 96% - McCain 3%

2. Support for Obama for the Democratic Party nomination: Clinton 72% - McCain 19%

More on this here:

Democratic Groups Most At Risk of Deserting (27 March, 2008)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105742/Democratic-Groups-Most-Risk-Deserting.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday 26 March, 2008

Obama - 47%
Clinton - 46%

..................

McCain - 47%
Clinton - 45%

McCain - 46%
Obama - 44%

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday 27 March, 2008

Obama - 48%
Clinton - 44%

..................

McCain - 45%
Obama - 44%

McCain - 47%
Clinton - 44%

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday 28 March, 2008

Obama - 50%
Clinton - 42%

..................

McCain - 46%
Obama - 44%

McCain - 48%
Clinton - 44%

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday 29 March, 2008

Obama - 50%
Clinton - 43%

..................

McCain - 46%
Obama - 44%

McCain - 48%
Clinton - 44%

What part of the sample is chosen on each day?

Survey Methods

Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general election results are based on combined data from March 24-28, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,412 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from March 26-28, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,220 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105832/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Still-Top-50-43.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Barack Obama 48.5%,  257 EVs
John McCain    50.5%. 281 EVs

Swing States

Nevada 51.5-47.5
Colorado 51-48
New Mexico 52-47
Wisconsin 49.9-49.1
Minnesota 52-47
Iowa 50-49
Missouri 43-56
Michigan 49.9-48.9
Pennsylvania 48-51
Ohio 46-53
Florida 45-54
New Hampshire 50-49

That your call if 1) an election were held now and 2) on the basis of Gallup?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Dems, Reps Agree: Obama Tougher Opponent for McCain (Match 31, 2008)

- 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents think Obama has a better chance of defeating McCain than Clinton (30%)

- 64% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents think McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton than Obama (22%)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105904/Dems-Reps-Agree-Obama-Tougher-Opponent-McCain.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Dems, Reps Agree: Obama Tougher Opponent for McCain (Match 31, 2008)

- 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents think Obama has a better chance of defeating McCain than Clinton (30%)

- 64% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents think McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton than Obama (22%)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105904/Dems-Reps-Agree-Obama-Tougher-Opponent-McCain.aspx

Dave

Glad we're all in agreement that Obama is the stronger candidate

I guess if we see a surge in support for Clinton among Republicans in any remaining open primaries we'll know why (and it won't be because they are, for the most part, Hillicans )

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 1 April, 2008

.....

Obama - 49%
Clinton - 45%

.....

McCain - 46%
Obama - 44%

McCain - 47%
Clinton - 45%

[Democratic Hawk]

Clinton Less Appealing Than Obama as Potential VP (April 1, 2008)

Clinton backers favor Obama-Clinton ticket; Obama backers do not ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105943/Clinton-Less-Appealing-Than-Obama-Potential-VP.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama, Clinton Leverage Different Groups vs. McCain (April 2, 2008)

Obama has strength among independents, Clinton among core Democrats ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105964/Obama-Clinton-Leverage-Different-Groups-vs-McCain.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday 2 April, 2008

.....

Obama - 49%
Clinton - 46%

.....

McCain - 47%
Clinton - 45%

McCain - 46%
Obama - 44%

[Democratic Hawk]

Presidential Candidates’ Weaknesses in Depth (April 2, 2008)

Clinton and Obama foes cite personal factors; McCain critics cite policy

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105994/Presidential-Candidates-Weaknesses-Depth.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Age, Vote More Strongly Related in Obama-McCain Matchup (April 3, 2008)

Gender more strongly related in Clinton-McCain contest

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106042/Age-Vote-More-Strongly-Related-ObamaMcCain-Matchup.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

MOE is huge, but still, 3rd most cited reason given by people who least like Obama is that they think he's Muslim?

It's because they are ignorant

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday 3 April, 2008

.....

Obama - 49%
Clinton - 46%

.....

McCain - 46%
Obama - 45%

McCain - 47%
Clinton - 45%

[Democratic Hawk]

MOE is huge, but still, 3rd most cited reason given by people who least like Obama is that they think he's Muslim?

It's because they are ignorant

Dave

No kidding, but not unexpected.  I'm sure many of his flock are equally ignorant of his platform as well.  Many voters are just lambs after all.

Obama, on the face of it, is not my kind of Democrat but I'm currently reading a book and the more I read it the more it becomes apparent that he is my kind of pragmatic progressive Democrat but I'm a long way finished from reading it yet

I just thought it was time I got to know a bit more about the man I've endorsed

That is not to say I wouldn't be at significant variance from the senator on certain issues

Dave