Rate Colorado in 2020

[Zaybay]

Likely D.

The state of Colorado is similar to VA. Two Bush states that went for Obama twice and then for Clinton. The voters in both states are transplants that came from more liberal states to a growing area, VA its NOVA, CO its Denver and its surroundings. The states are rather inelastic, and dont shift too much.

Many people here have pointed out the victory of Cory Gardner as proof that the state is not too far gone or that the state could vote Trump in 2020. I have heard this type of reasoning before. It was used in 2017 to justify how Gillespie could win the Governor's race. "He lost the senate race in 2014 by around 1 in a surprise twist, so he can win again." The problem with this reasoning is that it blocks out the other factors that created the election. In CO, it was an R wave year, Mark Udall was a terrible candidate, Cory campaigned as a sort of Mark Kirk type R, etc. To say that Cory winning in CO justifies a tossup, lean R, or lean D rating is the same as IL and saying that it would be only lean D or likely D because Mark Kirk won, or taking MA and AL, and saying that they are trending the opposite direction and will be competitive in the next election.

The truth of the matter is, the state of CO is out of the competitive column. It has been trending D since 2008, and has not stopped. Even in 2016, where it trended R, it was less that the presidential swing, indicating a D trend. I think CO and NM are on the Dem side, for now, at least. NV and MN are the only states that Clinton won that Trump could take, and thats really, really, really, really pushing it.