AZ - Biden +1
IA - Biden +1
*sigh*, we’re gonna have to go through this once again, aren’t we?
What is interesting is that there aren't any Republican posters freaking out about the Trump +1 average in Texas like it's a Biden +1 average in Iowa.
I think most Republicans (and pundits/observers, to be fair) are just in complete denial about TX and won’t believe it actually happened until it’s colored blue/projected to be a flip on the maps of AP, NYT, etc. The fact that people are still unironically entertaining scenarios in which Biden wins IA but loses TX (CNN even has TX as Lean R and IA as a Tossup, although that has as much to do with pushing the horse race narrative as it does with willful ignorance) just shows you how surprised many will be by the magnitude of some of these shifts/trends that we’ll witness tomorrow.
AZ just isn’t in play in this environment and no amount of polling will convince me of the opposite. Kelly's and Biden's margins will tell us a lot about how easy a D hold it will be come 2022, though.
