Did Zeldin win the Jewish vote in NY?

[Suburbia]

How is this a question; of course not.

He came close to.....he probably got 45% of the Jewish vote.......

[King of Kensington]

FL Jews have long been more conservative than Jews in other states, and have somewhat different backgrounds; they're likelier to have a recent immigrant background, which with Jews corresponds strongly to being more favorable to the GOP)

According to AP Votecast Survey NY Jews went 58-42 D and FL Jews 56-43 D in 2020.

[Vosem]

FL Jews have long been more conservative than Jews in other states, and have somewhat different backgrounds; they're likelier to have a recent immigrant background, which with Jews corresponds strongly to being more favorable to the GOP)

According to AP Votecast Survey NY Jews went 58-42 D and FL Jews 56-43 D in 2020.

…I mean, if that’s true then that implies both quite rapid demographic change and that Zeldin probably did win NY Jews. NY as a whole was Biden+23 and swung to Hochul+6; universal swing gets you to Zeldin+1, but as already mentioned Zeldin clearly did better with Jews than universal swing.

Comes down to which numbers are accurate, I guess, but I’d be surprised if Biden really only won NY Jews by 16 points unless we actually are really underestimating the Orthodox percentage.

[King of Kensington]

10 points more R isn't that surprising at all given NY Jewish demographics. 

Reform Jews living in affluent liberal suburbs only represent a small proportion of NY Jews.
 
1/3 live in Brooklyn alone where majorities are Orthodox or immigrant.  Jewish communities in Queens nowadays are also Orthodox and immigrant.  In Nassau, the Jewish suburbs of the Five Towns and Great Neck - filled with secular suburban Jews in the postwar years - have dramatically shifted in a much more religious direction.

[kwabbit]

Zeldin definitely did not. It's easy to see the dark red on the map of Borough Park and Palm Tree, but they are not the majority of NY Jews. The Upper West Side, West Brooklyn are areas with many secular Jews. They are voting upwards of 95% Dem, basically the same margin as the ultra-Orthodox, but they don't stand out on the map because their neighbors are voting similarly.

Reform Jews are the second most Dem voting bloc in the country after Black voters. There's a reason Democrats get around 80% nationally with Jewish voters despite the notable ultra-Orthodox areas that are 100% GOP.

[King of Kensington]

It's not 95-5, except maybe in the East Village or Park Slope or something.  

Jewish vote was 70-30 last time (nationally).  I agree there's a sizeable two-thirds, or close to it, that' basically off-limits with today's GOP no matter how "pro-Israel" or "anti-anti-Semitism" they are. There's also regional variation.  Jewish vote is north of 80% D in New England and California, but closer to 60% in NY and FL.

[King of Kensington]

According to the 2011 Jewish survey:  "Orthodox Jews and Russian-speaking Jews together comprise more than 40% of all Jews in the eight-county New York area."

Now it's possible the 42% is pretty much the ceiling among Jews (i.e. the conservative-leaning segments have maxed out, and there's minimal gain in the other segments).

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

According to the 2011 Jewish survey:  "Orthodox Jews and Russian-speaking Jews together comprise more than 40% of all Jews in the eight-county New York area."

Now it's possible the 42% is pretty much the ceiling among Jews (i.e. the conservative-leaning segments have maxed out, and there's minimal gain in the other segments).

I'm not surprised they make up such a large portion of the NY Jewish Population. Here in NJ we have...Lakewood. I think for all of us non-orthodox Jews from this area, there's a VERY hard line for support for any Republican candidate so I would be shocked if he outright won it. But given the demographic change of the Jewish population I would not be surprised if the numbers for republicans are rapidly improving and continue to do so.

[King of Kensington]

AP Votecast Survey (Biden vs. Trump):

Massachusetts  86-13
California  82-17
Connecticut  80-19
Maryland  79-20
Illinois  77-20
Pennsylvania  72-26
New Jersey  70-30
New York  58-42
Florida  56-43

[Death of a Salesman]

According to the 2011 Jewish survey:  "Orthodox Jews and Russian-speaking Jews together comprise more than 40% of all Jews in the eight-county New York area."

Now it's possible the 42% is pretty much the ceiling among Jews (i.e. the conservative-leaning segments have maxed out, and there's minimal gain in the other segments).

40% of the population means a lower fraction of the electorate, so I would be surprised if it was just 56-43 in 2022, but Zeldin managed to improve on Trump's numbers by a substantial amount in South Brooklyn.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1600488623480127492/photo/1

[kwabbit]

According to the 2011 Jewish survey:  "Orthodox Jews and Russian-speaking Jews together comprise more than 40% of all Jews in the eight-county New York area."

Now it's possible the 42% is pretty much the ceiling among Jews (i.e. the conservative-leaning segments have maxed out, and there's minimal gain in the other segments).

40% of the population means a lower fraction of the electorate, so I would be surprised if it was just 56-43 in 2022, but Zeldin managed to improve on Trump's numbers by a substantial amount in South Brooklyn.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1600488623480127492/photo/1

That's less improvement in the Jewish areas of  South Brooklyn. The improvement is strongest in the Chinese areas.

[King of Kensington]

Zeldin's biggest gains were among Chinese voters, by far.  It came from a very low base and the swings were massive.