AL-FM3 Research (Jones Internal): Jones +1

[Gass3268]

Jones 48%
Tuberville 47%

Source

[riceowl]

Cannot figure out the source. And it’s an internal. But hey look something different.

https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1317235227392200704?s=21

[Alben Barkley]

You beat me to posting it!

Well, it seems like no candidate (in a remotely competitive race) will win without losing in at least one poll. (Though I’m not sure if Gardner has led?)

I want to believe, though...

[AndyHogan14]

I want to believe, but there is no way Jones is winning this thing.

That said, I would love to be wrong.

[WD]

[MT Treasurer]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

[Pericles]

No presidential numbers on the internal it seems.

[SnowLabrador]

I want to believe, but I just can't. Doug Jones will lose to Tommy Tuberville.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 11-14
801 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%
Changes with May 14-18

Jones 48%  (+4)
Tuberville 47% (n/c)
Undecided/Refused 5% (-3 from "Undecided" at 8%)

"Other" previously at 1%

This is the first poll ever to show Jones leading Tuberville.

[Alben Barkley]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

It would be soooooo funny if Jones lost by less than Collins.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

In a state Trump will win by 20+ points, a margin of 12-15% seems realistic for the senate race.

[Roll Roons]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

In a state Trump will win by 20+ points, a margin of 12-15% seems realistic for the senate race.

Even if he had a much more conservative record, I think the odds of him winning would still be low unless Moore somehow got the nomination again. Alabama is far less elastic downballot than, say, West Virginia, Montana or Kansas.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

In a state Trump will win by 20+ points, a margin of 12-15% seems realistic for the senate race.

Even if he had a much more conservative record, I think the odds of him winning would still be low unless Moore somehow got the nomination again. Alabama is far less elastic downballot than, say, West Virginia, Montana or Kansas.

It's even more difficult for him than most Democrats to be a moderate hero in base-alienating ways because he's essentially the only reason for voters to show up in a state that is clearly noncompetitive at the top of the ticket and not seriously contested at many downballot junctures.

[MT Treasurer]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

Red state voters don’t care as much about a Senator's voting record as people here think. Jones' strength isn’t that he’s a conservadem, it’s that he’s perceived as genuine and relatable — the kind of decent guy who fights for you even if you disagree with him on some issues (well, that, and Tuberville's own weaknesses as a candidate and the massive Democratic wave). I’m not saying he’ll win reelection, but don’t be surprised if the margin is a lot closer to McCaskill's margin of defeat than what you’re predicting. There are also quite a few favorable trends for Democrats in this state, and Democratic enthusiasm/black turnout will be off the charts (I’m expecting Biden to crack 40%).

Taking this race for granted would be absolutely foolish. Jones' campaign is definitely playing to win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Rating Change: Titanium R -> Safe R

[AncestralDemocrat.]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

Red state voters don’t care as much about a Senator's voting record as people here think. Jones' strength isn’t that he’s a conservadem, it’s that he’s perceived as genuine and relatable — the kind of decent guy who fights for you even if you disagree with him on some issues (well, that, and Tuberville's own weaknesses as a candidate and the massive Democratic wave). I’m not saying he’ll win reelection, but don’t be surprised if the margin is a lot closer to McCaskill's margin of defeat than what you’re predicting. There are also quite a few favorable trends for Democrats in this state, and Democratic enthusiasm/black turnout will be off the charts (I’m expecting Biden to crack 40%).

Taking this race for granted would be absolutely foolish. Jones' campaign is definitely playing to win.

Obama didn't even crack 40% in 2008.. a huge stretch to say Biden will.

[Lief 🗽]

Make the Deep South Great Again

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

Red state voters don’t care as much about a Senator's voting record as people here think. Jones' strength isn’t that he’s a conservadem, it’s that he’s perceived as genuine and relatable — the kind of decent guy who fights for you even if you disagree with him on some issues (well, that, and Tuberville's own weaknesses as a candidate and the massive Democratic wave). I’m not saying he’ll win reelection, but don’t be surprised if the margin is a lot closer to McCaskill's margin of defeat than what you’re predicting. There are also quite a few favorable trends for Democrats in this state, and Democratic enthusiasm/black turnout will be off the charts (I’m expecting Biden to crack 40%).

Taking this race for granted would be absolutely foolish. Jones' campaign is definitely playing to win.

Obama didn't even crack 40% in 2008.. a huge stretch to say Biden will.

tbf, the state's fundamentals are better for Ds than in 2008.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

Red state voters don’t care as much about a Senator's voting record as people here think. Jones' strength isn’t that he’s a conservadem, it’s that he’s perceived as genuine and relatable — the kind of decent guy who fights for you even if you disagree with him on some issues (well, that, and Tuberville's own weaknesses as a candidate and the massive Democratic wave). I’m not saying he’ll win reelection, but don’t be surprised if the margin is a lot closer to McCaskill's margin of defeat than what you’re predicting. There are also quite a few favorable trends for Democrats in this state, and Democratic enthusiasm/black turnout will be off the charts (I’m expecting Biden to crack 40%).

Taking this race for granted would be absolutely foolish. Jones' campaign is definitely playing to win.

Obama didn't even crack 40% in 2008.. a huge stretch to say Biden will.

tbf, the state's fundamentals are better for Ds than in 2008.

No. They have a higher floor and probably a higher average PV relative to the nation in statewide runs, but their ceiling is lower because of the deaths of more ancestral Democrats, polarisation is higher and the state party is in even more jeopardy (although apparently there's been some revival there since Jones was elected and the previous chair got removed).

[S019]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

Red state voters don’t care as much about a Senator's voting record as people here think. Jones' strength isn’t that he’s a conservadem, it’s that he’s perceived as genuine and relatable — the kind of decent guy who fights for you even if you disagree with him on some issues (well, that, and Tuberville's own weaknesses as a candidate and the massive Democratic wave). I’m not saying he’ll win reelection, but don’t be surprised if the margin is a lot closer to McCaskill's margin of defeat than what you’re predicting. There are also quite a few favorable trends for Democrats in this state, and Democratic enthusiasm/black turnout will be off the charts (I’m expecting Biden to crack 40%).

Taking this race for granted would be absolutely foolish. Jones' campaign is definitely playing to win.

Jones is losing badly in polling even in what is essentially a Democratic landslide, I think Alabama is too inelastic for him to survive, especially since 15 pts is around what I thought he'd need to have a chance, yet he's still losing badly, Likely R, honestly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No presidential numbers on the internal it seems.

Says it all given that the last FM3 poll also released presidential numbers. It's why I'm keeping this at safe R for the time being.

[7,052,770]

Make the Deep South Great Again

If Jones and Espy win, surely Hegar would too, and maybe Perkins or even dare I say McGrath.

[S019]

Make the Deep South Great Again

If Jones and Espy win, surely Hegar would too, and maybe Perkins or even dare I say McGrath.

Hegar wins before Harrison and my hot take is that she wins before Greenfield. Also McGrath probably wins before Jones, honestly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Make the Deep South Great Again

If Jones and Espy win, surely Hegar would too, and maybe Perkins or even dare I say McGrath.

I agree on the rest, but not Perkins unless Trump decides to trash Cassidy in the runoff after losing the presidential election, in which case enough of the GOP base might be demoralised enough to stay at home.

[MT Treasurer]

Make the Deep South Great Again

My favorite part of that map is MT/TX staying blue. Glad we get more bipartisan bills and NUT maps.