IBD/TIPP national: Biden/Bloomberg +2, Sanders/Buttigieg +1, Warren -1
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  IBD/TIPP national: Biden/Bloomberg +2, Sanders/Buttigieg +1, Warren -1		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP national: Biden/Bloomberg +2, Sanders/Buttigieg +1, Warren -1  (Read 698 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: January 13, 2020, 10:51:47 AM »
IBD/TIPP, Jan. 3-11, 901 adults:

Biden 48, Trump 46
Bloomberg 47, Trump 45
Sanders 48, Trump 47
Buttigieg 47, Trump 46
Trump 47, Warren 46
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2020, 10:53:04 AM »
Small sample for national poll and only adults? That doesn't mean much, if anything.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2020, 10:59:36 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2020, 04:51:03 PM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on January 13, 2020, 10:53:04 AM
Small sample for national poll and only adults? That doesn't mean much, if anything.

Also I suspect that Bloomberg's numbers may stem from his recent ad blitz.

There were back-back Bloomberg ads on at least two occasions during yesterday's Texans-Chiefs game (that I don't wanna talk about).
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Cinemark
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2020, 11:24:02 AM »
Yeah, I'm not sure the point of polling "all adults" at this point either. Shouldn't be too hard to put a RV filter in.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2020, 11:31:10 AM »
Quote from: Cinemark on January 13, 2020, 11:24:02 AM
Yeah, I'm not sure the point of polling "all adults" at this point either. Shouldn't be too hard to put a RV filter in.

I think IBD always polls among all adults.
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Annatar
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2020, 06:51:05 PM »
If you look at Trump vs Biden, Trump has consistently improved his numbers vs Biden over the last 3 IBD polls, in their Oct 24-31 poll, Biden led Trump 53-43 by 10%, in their Dec 5-14 poll, Biden lead Trump 50-45, by 5%, and now in their Jan 3-11 poll, Biden leads Trump 48-46, by 2%.

It will be interesting to see what the latest Quinnipiac numbers say when they come out, their last H2H poll done Dec 4-9 had Trump approval at 41-55 and Biden beating Trump 51-42.
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SN2903
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2020, 10:23:55 PM »
Polls keep getting better and better for Trump
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2020, 11:01:08 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on January 13, 2020, 10:23:55 PM
Polls keep getting better and better for Trump

Yeah, polls that show Trump under 50 is good?
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SN2903
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2020, 11:31:31 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on January 13, 2020, 11:01:08 PM
Quote from: SN2903 on January 13, 2020, 10:23:55 PM
Polls keep getting better and better for Trump

Yeah, polls that show Trump under 50 is good?
Trump is now within the MOE head to head against Joe
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2020, 11:46:56 PM »
Not according to Fox polls, that had him down last week behind by 5. But Trump have nevertheless not lead in 70 polls
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Annatar
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2020, 02:28:02 AM »
Trump now trails Biden by 4% in the rcp average, just 2 months ago on nov 8, he was down by 10.2% so he has gained ground.

https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1192448006139891712
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2020, 03:21:36 AM »
Quote from: Annatar on January 14, 2020, 02:28:02 AM
Trump now trails Biden by 4% in the rcp average, just 2 months ago on nov 8, he was down by 10.2% so he has gained ground.

https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1192448006139891712

Biden, or any Dem, was never going to win by 10 nationally. 4-5% seems accurate. If the advantage is 3% or below, Trump will probably win the EC again.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2020, 06:20:18 AM »
Plausible numbers
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2020, 12:56:41 PM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on January 14, 2020, 03:21:36 AM
Quote from: Annatar on January 14, 2020, 02:28:02 AM
Trump now trails Biden by 4% in the rcp average, just 2 months ago on nov 8, he was down by 10.2% so he has gained ground.

https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1192448006139891712

Biden, or any Dem, was never going to win by 10 nationally. 4-5% seems accurate. If the advantage is 3% or below, Trump will probably win the EC again.

It is quite typical and predictable for general election poll #s to sag during a contested primary. The reason is that you get some supporters of one primary candidate saying that they won't vote for the other candidate in the general election. But in reality, the vast majority of them will. So once the nominee is chosen and things settle down, then polling #s recover afterwards.

So while the Dem may not win by 10 nationally (although i would not rule out something not as far from that as you might think), the Dem polling #s right now and for the next few months are likely to be unrealistically deflated.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2020, 04:32:29 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on January 13, 2020, 11:31:31 PM
Quote from: Cory Booker on January 13, 2020, 11:01:08 PM
Quote from: SN2903 on January 13, 2020, 10:23:55 PM
Polls keep getting better and better for Trump

Yeah, polls that show Trump under 50 is good?
Trump is now within the MOE head to head against Joe

and not only does it probably underestimate Trump's real current support, the numbers will probably IMPROVE over the course of the next ten months as we execute the best campaign the country has ever seen
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2020, 05:17:29 PM »
Wow! Yet another poll showing Warren as the weakest GE candidate! Who would have thought? Huh
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2020, 05:44:30 PM »
Quote from: 👁👁 on January 14, 2020, 12:56:41 PM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on January 14, 2020, 03:21:36 AM
Quote from: Annatar on January 14, 2020, 02:28:02 AM
Trump now trails Biden by 4% in the rcp average, just 2 months ago on nov 8, he was down by 10.2% so he has gained ground.

https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1192448006139891712

Biden, or any Dem, was never going to win by 10 nationally. 4-5% seems accurate. If the advantage is 3% or below, Trump will probably win the EC again.

It is quite typical and predictable for general election poll #s to sag during a contested primary. The reason is that you get some supporters of one primary candidate saying that they won't vote for the other candidate in the general election. But in reality, the vast majority of them will. So once the nominee is chosen and things settle down, then polling #s recover afterwards.

So while the Dem may not win by 10 nationally (although i would not rule out something not as far from that as you might think), the Dem polling #s right now and for the next few months are likely to be unrealistically deflated.

That’s not really what’s happening, what’s happening is that soft republican voters who were undecided a few months ago are rallying around Trump. Four months ago Trump numbers were around 41%, they’re now around 44%, look at the IBD poll, in August Trump was at 42%, in October he was at 44% then 45% and now he is at 46%.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2020, 05:59:09 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on January 14, 2020, 05:44:30 PM
That’s not really what’s happening, what’s happening is that soft republican voters who were undecided a few months ago are rallying around Trump. Four months ago Trump numbers were around 41%, they’re now around 44%, look at the IBD poll, in August Trump was at 42%, in October he was at 44% then 45% and now he is at 46%.

There is certainly some truth to that, and that is to be expected as well. Parties rally around their nominee as attention starts to shift to the election, and that is the case for Trump and the GOP as well. In reality it looks like a combination of both. The last 3 IBD/TIPP polls on RCP go like this:

Biden 53 - Trump 43
Biden 50 - Trump 45
Biden 48 - Trump 46

That is Trump going up a bit, but also is Biden going down a bit.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls
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