Annual Government Shutdown Megathread (Cycle ends with Momentary Shutdown)

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708163489078927513?s=46&t=fodleO...

Clearest proof we have so far that the “clean” CR is almost certainly not what McCarthy claims it is.

[wbrocks67]

McCarthy is the ultimate gas lighter.

[Rand]

God, how long does it take to shut down Hunter Biden's laptop?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Motion to Adjourn fails 427-0 (was used to get additional time to read the bill).

As the House CR is being done under suspension, a 2/3 majority on final passage will be required.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In their conference meeting, the GOP had discussed just shutting down the government or only opening select parts like the DoD and the FAA. Then McCarthy's own appropriators demanded a clean CR.

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1708136773719576674

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/heatherscope/status/1708164720857923706?t=iNAT6tJ2NyVa6q5ddt...

As said initially the big one here is Ukrainian money, but in theory there are ways to get that in. Real gaslighting though on sneaking in a pay raise.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dem Floor Leadership isn't formally whipping on this but DELAURO (Top Dem on Appropriations) appears to be urging a No.

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1708164730542530729/photo/1

[riceowl]

McCarty may have broke far sooner than expected. 45 day CR currently on the floor, supposedly 'clean' Senate bill, except no Ukraine. Ukraine money would either get quickly discharge petitioned alongside, or if that's not an option, the bill probably dies without Dem support.

In theory, if this all passes, it means shutdown temporarily averted until after elections. But it means McCarthy choose the option that angers the trolls and as soon as the chamber reconvenes we'll have Gaetz and Co. successfully vacate the Chair with Dem assistance. And we get January part 2!

The funniest possible outcome. I'm rooting for it.

+ we now have moderate R votes on the failed bill that had all the extreme cuts. Thanks for the kampaign ads Kevin!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Apparently a part of why McCarthy caved is because doing the remaining appropriations bills during a shutdown could be complicated:

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1708130545949974533

[Oryxslayer]

Dems are speaking on the lack of Ukrainian money. Since the bill needs 2/3s,  it's DOA if they can't weasel it in on the floor in another manner.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jeffries now demanding an up or down vote on the SENATE CR (which has yet to pass the Senate).

One issue with the House CR is it is not as explicit as the Senate Version on prohibiting a member pay raise during the shutdown: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/09/30/congress/member-pay-in-the-stopgap-00119270

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They were gonna pass a CR anyways in a Pandemic you can't shutdown or default on Govt

It's only about deficit spending and tax increase and Ds are gonna raise only rich people taxes especially inheritance taxes but keep Capital gains tax cuts like Clinton and Obama did

As I said we spent 8 T on Wars on Terror and rich people need to pay more

[oldtimer]

In their conference meeting, the GOP had discussed just shutting down the government or only opening select parts like the DoD and the FAA. Then McCarthy's own appropriators demanded a clean CR.

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1708136773719576674

This whole charade is why people don't like Congress.

Even a government shutdown is better than this (it never derails the economy or financial markets anyway).

[oldtimer]

Apparently a part of why McCarthy caved is because doing the remaining appropriations bills during a shutdown could be complicated:

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1708130545949974533

They could have passed a bill funding only the things needed for that.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

amendment to fix the pay issue in the House CR passes by voice

[soundchaser]

HR 5860 looks likely to pass. How long do we think it takes for Gaetz to file a motion to vacate?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House CR PASSES 335-91.

On to the SENATE

[vitoNova]

As in the previous shutdowns I've lived through, my little corner of DoD is--and will always be-- "excepted".  No disruptions, no furloughs, and still getting paid.  For the GS's, at least.

My team (different department) is mostly exempt, I believe. We have enough separate funding to keep most of our people on half-time, with field crews close to full time.

“Exempt” and “excepted” are really bad terms to use in the same context. Lots of confusion and I’m still not sure how to fill out my time card on Monday.

Time card?  In the Federal government?  Wow.

The email from the Chief on Friday--deja vu from 2012, 2018, 2019 etc...,--said we are fully funded for 30 days in the event of a shutdown and that "97%" of us will see business as usual. 

I have no clue who those 3% are.  Maybe the 2 folks who work at our mailroom at the Pentagon or something.  

[Oryxslayer]

HR 5860 looks likely to pass. How long do we think it takes for Gaetz to file a motion to vacate?

Probably the moment after Ukrainian money gets passed in a similar fashion to this. Makes things even clearer for his allies. Maybe we should preemptively create the thread.

Reminder that multiple Dems from multiple places in the party have said McCarthy is not getting bailed out on a motion to vacate. Jeffries has said they would whip against him. So unless McCarthy gives some serious concessions, he's done.

[It’s so Joever]

HR 5860 looks likely to pass. How long do we think it takes for Gaetz to file a motion to vacate?

Probably the moment after Ukrainian money gets passed in a similar fashion to this. Makes things even clearer for his allies. Maybe we should preemptively create the thread.

Reminder that multiple Dems from multiple places in the party have said McCarthy is not getting bailed out on a motion to vacate. Jeffries has said they would whip against him. So unless McCarthy gives some serious concessions, he's done.

Is now really the right time to do this? Dems probably should consider bailing him out honestly…

[Aurelius2]

For whatever it's worth, the shutdown market on Manifold Markets has dropped from a peak of 95% last night to 7% right now. Manifold should be taken with even more of a grain of salt than other prediction markets because it uses play money instead of real money (you have to purchase their internal currency with real money, but you can only donate earnings to charity, not cash it out). It is also almost certainly wildly overreacting. Still worth noting, though.

https://manifold.markets/AviS/will-there-be-a-federal-government

If you look at the trading history, our very own Evergreen just dumped some yes shares and bought no a few minutes ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Same as Debt Ceiling, they were never gonna shutdown Govt because retro pay, just like SSDI checks a govt checks.

Govt never likes Retro pay anyways, it's called SSDI because you can now get it more than ever on Disability that's why there are severe Labor Shortages it's a UBI payments now

[oldtimer]

HR 5860 looks likely to pass. How long do we think it takes for Gaetz to file a motion to vacate?

90 Republicans voted against it.

Not a majority of Republicans, but a big number and getting closer to a majority.

I think Gaetz might wait until a majority of the Republican caucus votes against and then pull the plug.

[Oryxslayer]

HR 5860 looks likely to pass. How long do we think it takes for Gaetz to file a motion to vacate?

Probably the moment after Ukrainian money gets passed in a similar fashion to this. Makes things even clearer for his allies. Maybe we should preemptively create the thread.

Reminder that multiple Dems from multiple places in the party have said McCarthy is not getting bailed out on a motion to vacate. Jeffries has said they would whip against him. So unless McCarthy gives some serious concessions, he's done.

Is now really the right time to do this? Dems probably should consider bailing him out honestly…

On e Ukrainian money is back, the bill is basically the Senate's version and the one that was agreed initially before the trolls said no. It's all done for now. This crisis would pass and we have until after the November elections to bother. The time is available.

[JGibson]

The lone Dem to vote NO is Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL), and that is due to the lack of Ukraine funding in the CR.