Democratic Trend in Georgia: A Thesis

[greenforest32]

Here's a fact. In order for Democrats to win Georgia, they'd have to win nearly 400 EV.

1. 400 EV isn't that high when you consider Obama won 365 EVs in 2008 and 332 EVs in 2012.

2. That's not even true if Georgia swings/trends D in 2016. If Georgia trends from say R+5.6 in 2012 to R+2 in 2016, then a Democrat winning 52% nationally in 2016 could carry Georgia. 52% in the 2016 map would probably be in the low to mid-300 EVs like 2008/2012.

edit: Oh wow, I worded #2 wrong. I meant to say if a Democrat performs about 4 points better in Georgia in 2016 compared to 2012, then a Democrat could carry it with 49-50%. Swings like that have happened recently (see NV, CO, VA, NC in 2000-2008). Not to say it's certain to happen, but if any states are due for it in 2016/2020, it's ones like Arizona and Georgia. A trend of D+5.5 is probably too much for one election though.

[barfbag]

Here's a fact. In order for Democrats to win Georgia, they'd have to win nearly 400 EV.

1. 400 EV isn't that high when you consider Obama won 365 EVs in 2008 and 332 EVs in 2012.

2. That's not even true if Georgia swings/trends D in 2016. If Georgia trends from say R+5.6 in 2012 to R+2 in 2016, then a Democrat winning 52% nationally in 2016 could carry Georgia. 52% in the 2016 map would probably be in the low to mid-300 EVs like 2008/2012.

edit: Oh wow, I worded #2 wrong. I meant to say if a Democrat performs about 4 points better in Georgia in 2016 compared to 2012, then a Democrat could carry it with 49-50%. Swings like that have happened recently (see NV, CO, VA, NC in 2000-2008). Not to say it's certain to happen, but if any states are due for it in 2016/2020, it's ones like Arizona and Georgia. A trend of D+5.5 is probably too much for one election though.

It's not at all certain to happen so I wouldn't worry about it on either side of the aisle.

[Mehmentum]

One odd thing about Georgia is that young voters actually voted Republican in 2008, Democrats cannot rely on demographic turnover to flip Georgia.

[barfbag]

Democrats speak of Republican teasers such as Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Oregon. They must look at themselves though and not fall for their own teasers such as Missouri, Arizona, Montana, Georgia, and without Obama Indiana and North Carolina may be teasers as well.

[All Along The Watchtower]

One odd thing about Georgia is that young voters actually voted Republican in 2008, Democrats cannot rely on demographic turnover to flip Georgia.

Not really odd; white Southerners of all ages and backgrounds are pretty Republican these days, it's really just a matter of degree.

[greenforest32]

*channels inner Dick Morris*

Georgia will flip in 2016¹

----
¹ My numbers (decimals included):

Projected 2016 Democratic vote in Georgia:
24% of the white vote which is 60% of the electorate (60 x .24) = 14.40%
93% of the black vote which is 32% of the electorate (32 x .93) = 29.76% (44.16% cumulative)
74% of the latino vote which is 5% of the electorate (5 x .74) = 3.70% (47.86% cumulative)
72% of the asian vote which is 2% of the electorate (2 x .72) = 1.44% (49.30% cumulative)
72% of the 'other' vote which is 1% of the electorate (1 x .72) = 0.72% (50.02% cumulative)

^^ Damn, is it just me or is this actually pretty realistic? Is everyone expecting the black share of the electorate to drop below the 30s once Obama isn't on the ticket or something?

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114314/georgia-senate-2014-democrats-best-chance

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(Right-click, open in new window)



EDIT: Also included if anyone wants to do some plug-and-play: