Would Rand have a chance at MN?

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't see Rand Paul being the Republican who can find a special appeal amongst the rural DFL-ers. The only way he could win is if he finds some way of appealing to urban liberal whites, which if he does that he'd win a whole lot more than just Minnesota. Overall, I think he'd probably do a couple points worse than the generic GOP in MN.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Jesse Ventura stumps fo him, maybe.

No. No one cares about Ventura anymore. He was an unpopular Governor and now is generally regarded as a joke. The media gives him some attention from time to time but he has no real effect or sway.

To answer the question, likely no, he has no special appeal here that he'd lack nationwide.

[Mehmentum]

He could win MN, but its not very likely and he doesn't have much of an advantage over any other Republican.

[Oregreen]

No chance in hell. Minnesota is a solid blue state.

[SPC]

It should be noted that this was one of his father's best states while Clinton lost it huge in 2008.

Obama lost states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, California huge in the 2008 primary season, and he still won each.

If you graph Obama-Kerry swing versus Obama primary percentage, you notice that, with a fairly high R^2 value, Obama gained roughly one percentage point in the general election for every 4% increase in primary performance. That would not have much of an effect on deep blue states during a Democratic year, but it may play more of a role in a close election in a state that is usually within a few points of the national average.

[Goldwater]

Nope.