What Senate races see the biggest leftward+rightward swings from 2018?

[Tekken_Guy]

What Senate races see the biggest leftward and rightward swings from 2018?

[TML]

In terms of rightward shifts, it has to be one of IN/MO/ND/TN/WV, since these were races in deep red states which were heavily contested in 2018 but not this year. (If I had to pick only one of these, I’d go with WV.)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Obviously WV and MN are probably are going to have some of the largest swings.

[Mr. Smith]

Rightwards: CA [by default]

Leftwards: NJ

[Dave Hedgehog]

Obviously WV and MN are probably are going to have some of the largest swings.

Surely you mean TN? My understanding is that Klobuchar has nothing to worry about this year even if MN may be in play at the presidential level.

Totally agree about WV though and don't see how there can be any other answer to the "rightward" part of this question.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Obviously WV and MN are probably are going to have some of the largest swings.

Surely you mean TN? My understanding is that Klobuchar has nothing to worry about this year even if MN may be in play at the presidential level.

Totally agree about WV though and don't see how there can be any other answer to the "rightward" part of this question.

I forgot about Tennessee, but no I meant Minnesota. Yes, Klobuchar will easily win again but it's going to be a closer high single digits, low double digits margin than her blowout in 2018 where she even won MN-07.

[Pericles]

In terms of rightward shifts, it has to be one of IN/MO/ND/TN/WV, since these were races in deep red states which were heavily contested in 2018 but not this year. (If I had to pick only one of these, I’d go with WV.)

MO might not be that big, Hawley won comfortably in 2018 too and he's a polarising figure which puts a hard ceiling on his support. Something like MO 2022 is plausible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Very few move leftwards, maybe just Arizona, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.

[Roll Roons]

How has no one mentioned MD for rightward? Cardin won by 35 points and even if Hogan loses (which I still think he does for now), it will be a hell of a lot closer than that.

[Schiff for Senate]

Rightward is obviously WV, hands down. There's going to be a 30-point rightward swing from 2018 (D+3) at the absolute bare minimum. Barring that...barring that let's see some other contenders for rightward (ranked):

ND: This is a huge one people didn't notice, but in all likelihood it'll have the second biggest rightward swing after WV...only R+11 in 2018, this year R+30 or so is a reasonable guess (R+20 swing)
MD: D+35 in 2018, this year it'll be somewhere between D+15 and D+20 in all likelihood (so R+15 rightward swing at least)
TN: R+10 in 2018, will probably be about R+25 this year (R+15 swing)
MN: D+24 in 2018, will end up around, say, D+10-12 (so just behind TN)
FL: Statistical tie in 2018, this year Scott will win by high single-digits, maybe double-digits (R+10 swing or so)
MO/IN: R+6 to R+16ish (roughly R+10 swing)

For leftward, off the top of my head only UT really sticks out, and it'll most likely be the winner for leftward swing. Romney won by 32 points; I expect Curtis to do around 10 points worse than that, maybe.

[Schiff for Senate]

How has no one mentioned MD for rightward? Cardin won by 35 points and even if Hogan loses (which I still think he does for now), it will be a hell of a lot closer than that.

Hogan is definitely losing, and it won't be as close as people think. I'd say a 15 point loss is probably about right, which would place MD in 3rd place just behind ND.