And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two)

[Harry Hayfield]

(Source: 2015 Conservative Manifesto)

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I will be buying a copy of the newspapers tomorrow and tallying up the election (both on the 2015 boundaries and the aborted 2013 boundaries) but there is nothing to stop the experts here (who I know had a wonderful time last time) creating their dream 600 seat Parliament.

[Harry Hayfield]

These are the electorates (and averages) for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

Northern Ireland: 1,236,687 = 18 seats = 68,705 electors per seat
Scotland: 4,099,926 = 59 seats = 69,490 electors per seat
Wales: 2,282,297 = 40 seats = 57,057 electors per seat
Average so far: 7,618,910 = 117 seats = 65,118 electors per seat

England (by it's sheer size) will take a lot longer to tally but when I have done, I shall post the regional tallies

[Harry Hayfield]

I have managed to complete the calculations (based on the estimates that Electoral Calculus did) of the proposed 600 seat house and this is how that election would have turned out:

Conservatives 317 seats (+21 seats)
Labour 209 seats (-25 seats)
Scottish National Party 51 seats (+45 seats)
Democratic Unionist Party 8 seats (unchanged)
Sinn Fein 5 seats (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 3 seats (-44 seats)
Plaid Cymru 3 seats (+2 seats)
SDLP 2 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 1 seat (+1 seat)
Independent 1 seat (unchanged)
Conservative majority of 34

The gains from the notional election of 2010 and 2015 are (excluding Scotland which saw the SNP win every single seat bar Orkney and Shetland)

Con GAINS: Balham and Tooting (Lab), Bath (Lib Dem), Battersea and Vauxhall (Lab), Berwick, Alnwick and Morpeth (Lib Dem), Bodmin and St. Austell (Lib Dem), Bolton West (Lab), Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery (Lib Dem), Carshalton and Couldson (Lib Dem), Cheadle (Lib Dem), Cheltenham (Lib Dem), Colchester (Lib Dem), Devon North (Lib Dem), Eastbourne (Lib Dem), Eastleigh (Lib Dem), Gloucestershire South East (Lib Dem), Hampton (Lib Dem), Hazel Grove and Poyton (Lib Dem), Kingston and Surbiton (Lib Dem), Norfolk North (Lib Dem), Plymouth Devonport (Lab), Richmond and Twickenham (Lib Dem), Solihull (Lib Dem), Somerton and Frome (Lib Dem), Southampton Itchen (Lab), Southport (Lib Dem), St. Ives (Lib Dem), Stockton South (Lab), Sutton and Cheam (Lib Dem), Taunton (Lib Dem), Torbay (Lib Dem), Truro and Newquay (Lib Dem), Yeovil (Lib Dem)
Lab GAINS: Bermondsey and South Bank (Lib Dem), Bristol West (Lib Dem), Cambridge (Lib Dem), Cardiff Central (Lib Dem), Chester (Con), Croydon East (Con), Dewsbury (Con), Enfield North (Con), Hornsey and Wood Green (Lib Dem), Hove (Con), Luton North and Dunstable (Con), Manchester Withington (Lib Dem), Norwich South (Lib Dem), Otley (Con), Redcar (Lib Dem), Sheffield Hallam and Penistone (Lib Dem), Shipley (Con), Southampton Test (Con), Willesden (Lib Dem), Wirral Deeside (Con),
Green GAINS: Brighton, Pavillion (Lab)
Plaid GAINS: Carmarthen (Lab), Ynys Môn ac Bangor (Lab),