Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Government to raise salaries for certain public sector workers

The government has made an tripartite agreement with the unions and the regions + municipalities about raising wages for certain public sector workers. Normally this happens in the regular negotiations between unions and their employers, but it was one of Mette Frederiksen's key electoral promises that there was a need for extraordinary raises for some public sector workers.

All in all the government will spend an additional 6.8 billion DKK a year once the deal is fully phased in in 2026, although almost half of that will return to the state coffers as taxes.

The additional money will primarily go to four different groups: Social and elderly care helpers, nursery teachers, those who work in hospitals and those who work in prisons. They will get higher wages and higher add-ons for working nights and weekends. The groups have different working time rules, but for most of them their unions have then accepted their maximum working shift hours being raised to 12 hours, and their minimum rest time between shifts lowered to 8 hours.

https://twitter.com/DRNyheder/status/1731685828810707206

[Diouf]

SPP makes deal with government on intelligence service scandal

Tomorrow parliament will vote on two divisive issues, the shameful Quran law and a vote on the investigation into the Hjort-Findsen intelligence scandal. The opposition has cancelled the so-called clearing deals so that basically all MPs have to show up and actually vote. Due to their quite marginal majority on domestic issues and the fear of being seen of too dominant and self-willed, the government has tried quite hard to get a least one party to support it on both issues. In terms of the Quran law, the feeble Social Liberals didn't need much convincing to back the government's erosion of free speech, but it has been harder for them to find someone to back them on the intelligence scandal vote.

The big issues on the intelligence scandal are how broad the scope of the investigation should be (i.e. how much should be looked into Mette Frederiksen and her permanent secretary Barbara Bertelsen) and whether the investigation should happen in a parliamentary committee or in a commission set down by the Justice Ministry. Tonight the government announced that it has reached a deal with SPP around the vote. SPP accepts a rather narrow scope of the investigation and that it is carried out by a Justice Ministry commission. The party then gets concessions on two other issues. There will be a strengthened oversight with intelligence services. The enhanced oversight will conduct subsequent legality checks on intelligence services, ensuring compliance with rules without compromising confidentiality. Collaboration between the oversight body and the Parliament's Committee on Intelligence Services will increase, allowing the committee to request investigations in extraordinary situations. Then there's the so-called Samsam case, where a Dane who spied against ISIS in Syria, was arrested by Spanish authorities for terrorism support and has been in jail since 2017. In the Samsam case, the enhanced oversight body will investigate whether intelligence services' actions complied with legal frameworks. Results will be reported to Parliament's Committee on Intelligence Services.

[Diouf]

The newly appointed Liberal Minister for Digitalization and Equality Mia Wagner is on sick leave after passing out last week. Stephanie Lose will cover her position as well.

Wagner resigns due to health issues after just two weeks in the job. She is replaced by the one whose job she took, Marie Bjerre. Must have been quite a rollercoaster in recent weeks for the latter. Now perhaps this sacking and re-hiring has raised her public profile a bit, so she's no longer at the bottom of the list of ministers the public knows.

[Diouf]

Deal reached to cut taxes

The government has reached an agreement with Denmark Democrats, Conservatives, Social Liberals and New Right to lower taxes. The corner piece in the deal is a significant increase in the employment deduction. The standard rate of the deduction is raised from 10.65% to 12.75% in a phased-in approach in 2025 and 2026. The maximum deduction is raised as well. The deduction increase will give a tax cut of up to 3 000 DKK a year for those in work.

The deal also has a focused tax cuts for many relatively high earners. For income between 618 000 - 750 000 DKK a year, the additional so-called 'top tax' is reduced from 15 % to 7.5%. However, the very highest earners will get a higher tax rate. A new so-called 'top top tax' is introduced on income above 2 500 000 DKK a year. But it sounds like a significant bunch of those who earn such amounts by being entrepreneurs can get around the new tax by paying dividend on their shares instead of getting the income as salary.

The deal then also has a number of minor very focused tax cuts for specific groups. An increased employment deduction for lone parents, an increased emplyment deductions for those close to and above the retirement age, a bonus check for youths without education or employment experience who get their first jobs, a slight reduction in the inheritance tax plus giving inheriting siblings the same lower inheritance tax as children.


https://twitter.com/DRNyheder/status/1735294043792232747

[Diouf]

The police today arrested three suspects with a fourth being arrested in the Netherlands on charges to commit terrorism. The security at all Jewish institutions have been increased.

[Diouf]

The government, SPP and the Red-Green Alliance have agreed to introduce a flight tax. The new taxes will be introduced from 2025 and phased in until 2030. In 2025, they will be on average 70 DKK per flight and rising to 100 DKK on average in 2030. The fee is higher the longer the journey is. So domestic travel and short European flights will be around 50 DKK per flight in 2030, while the longest possible trip will get a tax of 410 DKK. The proceeds from the new tax will be used around equally for two purposes. One half will go to make a number of investments in green air travel, while the other half is spend to increase the so-called elderly check, which is for poor pensioners.

The government has made a new EU strategy in a deal with SPP, Liberal Alliance, Conservatives, Social Liberals and Alternative. Some of the most noteworthy things in the deal is support for qualified majority voting in more foreign policy issues. Not in defence and military issues, but in issues regarding sanctions, human rights issues, crisis help etc. It also says that Ukraine and other countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans should be offered a clear and trustworthy perspective of becoming EU members. The new strategy says the Lisbon Treaty has the necessary flexibility, and there is no need for a new treaty. Finally, it says that the EU should make more migration deals with countries bordering the EU, and that EU countries should maintain the right to temporary border controls.

[Diouf]

The newly appointed Liberal Minister for Digitalization and Equality Mia Wagner is on sick leave after passing out last week. Stephanie Lose will cover her position as well.

Wagner resigns due to health issues after just two weeks in the job. She is replaced by the one whose job she took, Marie Bjerre. Must have been quite a rollercoaster in recent weeks for the latter. Now perhaps this sacking and re-hiring has raised her public profile a bit, so she's no longer at the bottom of the list of ministers the public knows.

"Marie Bjerre's popularity skyrockets after rollercoaster ride

Even though it all started with a defeat in the form of a dismissal after almost a year as minister, the rollercoaster ride has caused Marie Bjerre's popularity to skyrocket.

Unlike before, a majority of Danes now actually know who she is.

In a new poll made by Epinion for DR and the Altinget, Marie Bjerre is now among the most popular ministers in the government.

She takes joint second place on the list of popular ministers together with Minister for Children and Education Mattias Tesfaye (S) - only surpassed by Minister for the Environment Magnus Heunicke (S).

In the survey, there is a preponderance of voters who have a positive impression of her. When the same survey was done in mid-November - before the dismissal - there was a preponderance of negative responses."

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/marie-bjerres-popularitet-skyder-i-vejret-efter-tur-i-rutsjebanen

[Diouf]

When looking at the whole list of minister popularity, it's remarkable how much the approval rate of two of the key players in the government has declined. Mette Frederiksen and Lars Løkke Rasmussen's ratings have both cratered. Back in March, they both scored a decent -1 in approval (approve minus disapprove). Now Frederiksen is -20 and Løkke Rasmussen at the bottom at -24. Altinget hasn't written about where the drop has happened, but it would be logical that they are sliding a lot among voters in their own old bloc. Frederiksen starting to decline among Red voters with the tax cuts and less welfare spending and climate action than demanded by many on the left. Løkke was the main proponent of the Quran law, which must have tarnished him among many Blue bloc voters + the increased amount of personal scandals in the party he has had to defend or clean up after. One of the possible heirs in the Social Democrats, Minister of Justice Peter Hummelgaard is also quite low at -13, while the current favourite to follow Frederiksen is Minister of Finance Nicolai Wammen, who is at a decent -1.

At the top of the list it's still Magnus Heunicke, who probably still is remembered fondly as Minister of Health during covid. He is at +17, despite it seems like many Red Bloc parties and interest groups are growing a bit impatient with a lack of action in some areas regarding environmental care. The abovementioned Marie Bjerre is at +11, the same as Minister for Children and Education Mattias Tesfaye. The new Liberal Minister of Economy Stephanie Lose is doing well at +9, while the new Liberal leader Troels Lund Poulsen is doing okayish at -5.

https://www.altinget.dk/uddannelse/artikel/se-listen-tesfaye-er-en-af-regeringens-mest-populaere-ministre

[Diouf]

The government has made a deal with Liberal Alliance, Conservatives and DPP to cut the state education grants in higher education.
The most significant change is to cut the number of months where you can receive state grants. Currently you can get grants for studying for 12 months more than the length of standard education, so typically six years of grants for a five year university education. On one hand it allows you to change study after a year and still have enough grants for all of the education. But on the other hand it allows, or even encourges, students to take a slower route through their eduction, and not taking the normal amount of courses in some semesters to spread out the education to six years. These extra 12 months are now cut, so you can only get grants for the normal length of the education you choose (max five years). Students with disabilities and lone parents will still be able to get the extra 12 months of education grants. The change will enter into force in the summer of 2025.

[Diouf]

Vanopslagh opens for government with the Social Liberals

In an interview with Politiken, the Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh opens for a government with the Social Liberals. When pushed on alternatives to the current government, and whether a pure Blue Bloc government would be remotely feasible, he said that "There could be the option of a centre-right government with Liberals, Conservatives, Moderates, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance, and then supported by the necessary seats by perhaps Denmark Democrats or DPP. I'm not saying this would be easy to pull off, but it's not an impossible task". He then went on to say that he has an excellent cooperation with the Social Liberal leader Martin Lidegaard, and that he believes that their two parties could do something great in terms of economic reforms, and that the Social Liberals would be allowed to "step on it" in terms of climate policies.

Lidegaard's response has been positive. He has said he does not rule out any scenario and hope to continue the excellent cooperation with LA. He states that the parties does not agree on everything, but on a lot, especially in terms of retirement options, international labour, entrepreneurship and less bureaucracy in the public sector.

[JimJamUK]

Vanopslagh opens for government with the Social Liberals

In an interview with Politiken, the Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh opens for a government with the Social Liberals. When pushed on alternatives to the current government, and whether a pure Blue Bloc government would be remotely feasible, he said that "There could be the option of a centre-right government with Liberals, Conservatives, Moderates, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance, and then supported by the necessary seats by perhaps Denmark Democrats or DPP. I'm not saying this would be easy to pull off, but it's not an impossible task". He then went on to say that he has an excellent cooperation with the Social Liberal leader Martin Lidegaard, and that he believes that their two parties could do something great in terms of economic reforms, and that the Social Liberals would be allowed to "step on it" in terms of climate policies.

Lidegaard's response has been positive. He has said he does not rule out any scenario and hope to continue the excellent cooperation with LA. He states that the parties does not agree on everything, but on a lot, especially in terms of retirement options, international labour, entrepreneurship and less bureaucracy in the public sector.

It would be interesting to see DD and DF in the same governing majority as RV. The former of course would find much in common on climate and the latter surely sees completely eye to eye on immigration and retirement with RV…

But seriously, it’s bonkers enough that it could actually happen, especially as RV currently lacks  any real purpose given they refused to go into government but back it on almost everything anyways.

[Mike88]

Not sure if this is the right place to post it, but it has a deep impact in Denmark:

Queen Margrethe II to abdicate from the Throne:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1741514087790506280

The surprise announcement was made during the Queen's New Year message. The abdication will happen on 14 January 2024. Her son, Prince Frederik, will be the new King.

[Flyersfan232]

Not sure if this is the right place to post it, but it has a deep impact in Denmark:

Queen Margrethe II to abdicate from the Throne:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1741514087790506280

The surprise announcement was made during the Queen's New Year message. The abdication will happen on 14 January 2024. Her son, Prince Frederik, will be the new King.

ff but question is will she keep her queen titles after the 14th or will she becomes a princess like the dutch monarchs?

[Jens]

Not sure if this is the right place to post it, but it has a deep impact in Denmark:

Queen Margrethe II to abdicate from the Throne:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1741514087790506280

The surprise announcement was made during the Queen's New Year message. The abdication will happen on 14 January 2024. Her son, Prince Frederik, will be the new King.

ff but question is will she keep her queen titles after the 14th or will she becomes a princess like the dutch monarchs?

She will keep her title as Queen of Denmark, just like her mother Ingrid, kept hers after the death of Frederik IX

[Diouf]

Vanopslagh opens for government with the Social Liberals

In an interview with Politiken, the Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh opens for a government with the Social Liberals. When pushed on alternatives to the current government, and whether a pure Blue Bloc government would be remotely feasible, he said that "There could be the option of a centre-right government with Liberals, Conservatives, Moderates, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance, and then supported by the necessary seats by perhaps Denmark Democrats or DPP. I'm not saying this would be easy to pull off, but it's not an impossible task". He then went on to say that he has an excellent cooperation with the Social Liberal leader Martin Lidegaard, and that he believes that their two parties could do something great in terms of economic reforms, and that the Social Liberals would be allowed to "step on it" in terms of climate policies.

Lidegaard's response has been positive. He has said he does not rule out any scenario and hope to continue the excellent cooperation with LA. He states that the parties does not agree on everything, but on a lot, especially in terms of retirement options, international labour, entrepreneurship and less bureaucracy in the public sector.

It would be interesting to see DD and DF in the same governing majority as RV. The former of course would find much in common on climate and the latter surely sees completely eye to eye on immigration and retirement with RV…

But seriously, it’s bonkers enough that it could actually happen, especially as RV currently lacks  any real purpose given they refused to go into government but back it on almost everything anyways.

None of the parties to the right of the proposed, possible government with the Social Liberals are rejecting the idea.

Pernille Vermund, New Right, is open to supporting the Social Liberals or Moderates in a future government, focusing on shared distribution policies. She does, however, highlight disagreement on immigration policies.  The Danish People's Party, Morten Messerschmidt, suggests potential support for a center-right government with the Social Liberals in an 'emergency' situation. Danmarksdemokraterne does not rule out the Social Liberals becoming a supporting party, emphasizing the primary condition of having a center-right prime minister.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2024-01-07-blaa-partier-aabner-for-alliance-med-de-radikale

[Diouf]

With the announcement of Charles Michel' decision to leave as European Council President earlier than expected, the speculations regaring a potential international top job for Mette Frederiksen are already surfacing again.


https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2024-01-07-mette-frederiksen-kan-komme-i-spil-til-eu-topjob-efter-exit-i-utide

[Diouf]

New Right to disband

Party leader Pernille Vermund has just announced on X that New Right will disband. She cites the need for a more coherent right wing bloc with fewer parties, as well as the intense work needed to keep a party running with a parliamentary group of two.

https://twitter.com/PernilleVermund/status/1745010988489888105?t=dWEtCrf7vnQLFTQ...

[Estrella]

New Right to disband

Party leader Pernille Vermund has just announced on X that New Right will disband. She cites the need for a more coherent right wing bloc with fewer parties, as well as the intense work needed to keep a party running with a parliamentary group of two.

Is this because DF shifted to the economic right and LA to the cultural right and there isn’t a niche left?

[Diouf]

New Right to disband

Party leader Pernille Vermund has just announced on X that New Right will disband. She cites the need for a more coherent right wing bloc with fewer parties, as well as the intense work needed to keep a party running with a parliamentary group of two.

Is this because DF shifted to the economic right and LA to the cultural right and there isn’t a niche left?

The increased competition for right wing votes has hurt them, but I wouldn't say that there isn't a niche left. Even in this semi-collapsed state, the party has polled mostly just above the 2% threshold in recent months. Their internal troubles is the primary cause, and as a quite new party it hasn't had the robustness to handle these type of crises. Their most prominent figure Pernille Vermund checked out mentally last year, and the only one who could replace her, Lars Boje Mathiesen, was of course removed from the position as leader and excluded from the party.

The Liberal Alliance moving somewhat right on cultural issues happened already in 2019 when Alex Vanopslagh became leader, and Simon-Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille left the party. In the spring of 2022, the New Right polled at around 8%. Then in June 2022, Inger Støjberg founded Denmark Democrats and New Right immediatedly was closed to halved, dropping down to around 4-5 % in polls. During the campaign in November 2022, they faded a bit further while both Liberal Alliance and Denmark Democrats had good campaigns, so it ended with only 3.7% at the election. For them it was not optimal that DPP survived, and Messerschmidt's party has been able to take some of the departing New Right MPs (and probably some voters as well). But I'm not sure many voters has recognized any significant DPP move to the right economically. Messerschmidt has signalled he might not completely rule out political deals with lower taxes for top earners if the party got enough concessions on other issues, but most of their political signalling is still about increased welfare spending and better conditions for the elderly.

There is already some speculation about where the party's two MPs could go. Kim Edberg Andersen is a former DPPer, and could likely go there, as his sthick is mostly the anti-elite and immigrationsceptic lines. Vermund herself has clearly moderated a bit in recent months, and does not have a good relationship with Messerschmidt and Kjærsgaard, so it's hard to see her go there. Denmark Democrats could be the most likely option for her, if she even wants to continue for long in parliament. She has a good relationship with Inger Støjberg, and their policies are not far from what Vermund has moved towards. Vermund would probably still prefer a more clear rightwing economic policy, but Denmark Democrats are still moderatedly centre-right on this topic, so she could probably live with this.

[Mike88]

Frederik X is now officially King of Denmark:

https://twitter.com/elconfidencial/status/1746538908920254853

This Sunday, Frederick X became the new king of Denmark after his mother, Queen Margaret II, signed her declaration of abdication during a Council of State held in Christiansborg.

https://twitter.com/elespanolcom/status/1746535278372634934

Mary of Denmark and her children accompany Frederick on the balcony after his speech on the day of his proclamation as king

[Diouf]

All three New Right MPs have now officially left the party, which means it's currently not eligible to run for upcoming elections. There is still some speculation about where they will go. Peter Seier is still severely ill, so he might not decide to join another party and it's doubtful whether he will return to parliament. If he does, he is moderate enough to fit it with several of the centre-right parties. But since his replacement MP would be Henriette Ergemann, the conspiracy theorist and former short time deputy leader of the party under Lars Boje, he is not resigning his seat. Kim Edberg is a former DPPer and it still sounds like the most likely spot for him to end up, but he seems very open to many parties. In an interview today he said "As a political person, I have a quite broad base of views. So I can see myself in anything from the Social Democrats to Liberal Alliance". I still think Pernille Vermund is most likely to join Denmark Democrats, but the political commentators sounds like Liberal Alliance could also be a quite likely option. Even though she has moderated a fair bit, I probably think Vanopslagh would be a bit more worried to lose more centrist voters with liberal values if Vermund joins. It's not that the party doesn't have some fairly tough immigration policies, but it's not something they focus a lot on.

There is now significant doubt whether the party will actually agree to dissolve itself. For it to officially be dissolved, there needs to be two thirds of the party delegates voting to dissolve at two party congresses. DR has talked to 48 of the 56 local chapter leaders. 16 of them disagreed that the party should be dissolved, while 9 agreed. 23 hadn't made up their mind yet. So that doesn't point towards the necessary overwhelming majority for it to be dissolved.

A number of no-name local candidates have announced their candidature for new leader to keep the party alive. The Copenhagen local chapter leader, Nis Otto Kristensen, and regional councillor, Githa Nelander, have both said they will run. However, the focus is on two other names. Mostly on Martin Henriksen, who was a MP for DPP from 2005-2019. Henriksen ran against Messerschmidt as DPP leader in 2022, and left the party shortly after losing. Last year he joined New Right, and was supposed to be the party's lead candidate at the European elections, which they are now no longer eligible for. He says he is strongly considering a run, but hasn't made up his mind yet. Some more far-fetched speculation is whether Lars Boje Mathiesen could return as leader. He lead the party from 7 February - 9 March 2023 before being excluded from the party due to disagreements about his salary for the role. The big advantage for the party with his return is that he is a MP, and the party would therefore again be eligible, both for the European elections and the next parliamentary election. Also he is quite popular, receiving some great personal vote numbers, and being the MP with the most interactions on Facebook. He might have burned bridges with many in the party, but most of the high-ranking of them will leave or have left the party. And him it could be easier for him to take over the party than start from the bottom with a new project. But so far I haven't seen anything to suggesting this is about to happen.

[Diouf]

I still think Pernille Vermund is most likely to join Denmark Democrats, but the political commentators sounds like Liberal Alliance could also be a quite likely option. Even though she has moderated a fair bit, I probably think Vanopslagh would be a bit more worried to lose more centrist voters with liberal values if Vermund joins. It's not that the party doesn't have some fairly tough immigration policies, but it's not something they focus a lot on.

The rumours were right. Alex Vanopslagh has just announced that Pernille Vermund is joining Liberal Alliance. He says she is a great communicator with a big politicial knowledge, who will help make Denmark a more liberal country. He says that "2024 Pernille Vermund" is a great fit for Liberal Alliance, while 2015 or 2019 Pernille Vermund might not have been. He says that she has clearly moved her positions in recent years, away from non-negotiable demands and tough language. He says that through their conversations, he has been convinced that they share politicial visions, and that she is fully aware that she will have to work her way up.

I'm still a bit surprised that Vanopslagh finds it a risk worth taking. I see why Vermund finds it an attractive party, and one more likely to enter government than Denmark Democrats. But while Liberal Alliance has a quite tough immigration policy, it's vibe is still pretty much that of a very liberal, urban open-minded party, which attracts some voters who could as well be voting Social Liberals or Moderates. And Pernille Vermund just seems to break with that vibe a lot, especially for most of the population, who might not follow politics closely enough to have noted any moderation from her.
The top comment on X below Vanopslagh is from one of the party's famous backers, software entrepreneur Martin Thorborg, who writes "I'm honestly very disappointed about this". It's these kind of reactions the party should fear, and which Social Liberals and Moderates should spread throughout urban environments.

https://twitter.com/AlexVanopslagh/status/1747688009032503736

[Diouf]

Epinion has released a poll showing Pernille Vermund's approval rating according to party.
She had quite decent net approval among Denmark Democrats and DPP voters, while it was net negative for all other parties. Liberal Alliance was the closest of the other parties to a tie, but it still shows that a significant share of their voters are probably not currently seeing her as an asset.


https://twitter.com/christergaard/status/1747899402549612977

[Diouf]

More foreign labour for the health and elderly sector

The government has made an agreement with SPP, Liberal Alliance, Conservatives and Social Liberals to make it easier to get foreign labour for the health and elderly sector. The deal introduces a number of initiatives including a shortcut authorization process for highly demanded healthcare professionals, add social and healthcare assistants to the list of jobs exempt from any salary demand for residence permits until 1000 new assistants have arrived, explore partnerships with India and Philippines to recruit health care personnel, make targeted health care langugage programs and remove the deadline for when to pass the program's exam and automatically recognizing the EU/EEA education of applicants from third countries

https://twitter.com/DRNyheder/status/1750111668334477668

[Diouf]

The New Right could perhaps soon become eligible again. The latest news is that MP Peter Seier Christensen, who has been sick with cancer for most of this term, wants the party to stay alive. Until recently, people assumed that he had agreed to Vermund's plan to dissolve the party. But there are now persistent rumours that he was actually thrown out of the party before Vermund and Kim Edberg left it. It now seems like Peter Seier's health is improving and that he wants to return to active duty in parliament, and to represent New Right, which would make it eligible for the next general election as well as the upcoming European elections.

Peter Seier is also a member of the New Right board. And DR reports that at yesterday's board meeting, where they were to plan the party's extraordinary congress, that a surrogate suddenly showed up with a mandate from Peter Seier to fight for the party to stay alive. The board called the extraordinary congress for early April.

It sounds like Peter Seier would like to keep the party alive but not lead it himself, with Martin Henriksen then the most likely candidate. And there seems to still be a lot of mistrust with former New Right leader, MP Lars Boje Mathiesen, so that Seier's willingness to represent the party and make it eligible would be preferred to Boje re-entering it.