BREAKING: Snowe not running!!!!

[smoltchanov]

Well, I may be in the minority for saying this, but it's disappointing to see one of the few non-hyperpartisan members of Congress retiring. She served Maine well.

+101! I stated many times that after 35 years of studying US politics in details i began to lose interest in that exactly because of hyperpartisanship of last years. What sense it would make to analyze 435 races in which 435 Pelosi-clones will run against 435 Boehner-clones? Absolutely  no sense. And we are close to that already. Snowe was one of my favorite Senators exactly because she was a genuine moderate almost all time (it seems ti me she moved somewhat to the right after 2010 election). Sad. And BOTH parties are to blame for abandoning "big tent" policy of the past. Honestly - i don't know which one - more, and don't like to know that.

The race is somewhere between leans and likely Democratiс right now. The best Democratic candidate (IMHO, of course) would be Michaud, but then Democrats may lose his district in House. Pingree is way too liberal and too shrill for my tastes...

Republicans need very moderate candidate here, and moderates have at least some difficulties in republican primaries as of late (not only in 2010, when tea-party crowd carried LePage over finish line and then he was a biggest "lucky person of the year" by winning over atrocious Democrat and reasonable Independent, who would win if elections would be held 3-4 days later), but in  2006 as well, when they nominated an idiot Woodcock and thus immediately lost a chance to defeat unpopular Baldacci. And they need such candidate QUICK... We shall see whether they will be able to find one. Raye, Otten, Abbot, Summers? All are not that bad, but not especially great either.

[smoltchanov]

Peter Mills seems like the best candidate, but I'm not sure he wants to run again after losing to LePage in 2010's primary.

I thought about him. But he is almost 70 if i remember correctly

[smoltchanov]

Peter Mills seems like the best candidate, but I'm not sure he wants to run again after losing to LePage in 2010's primary.

I thought about him. But he is almost 70 if i remember correctly

. Perhaps Steve Abbott then? He is close with Collins, so they would probably work well together if he were elected.

May be. But he ran 4th in 2010 Gubernatorial primary. Obviously not so bad, taking into consideration that LePage was (as i said earlier) "carried by very strong (then, not now) tea-party movement") and Otten, Mills and Abbott were only 2-3% apart... (All 3 were moderates BTW... Moderates and conservatives split vote almost equally, but moderate vote was much more split)). Serious candidate (especially if Democrats nominate Pingree), but we shall see whether he can quickly raise neccessary campaign funds

[smoltchanov]

Hmmm... Peter Cianchette seems like a stronger candidate in that case. He has an edge on is that he has statewide recognition from running for Governor in 2002, and actually did better than Baldacci in Portland, where any Republican running is going to need to do well (especially against Pingree).

I don't remember whether Ciancette is  a moderate (required, if there won't be strong Independent candidate, and may be - even in that case). But if he was able to do well in Portland - probably yes...

[smoltchanov]

I wouldn't like Michaud, but whatever.

I don't think it's that Pingree is "too liberal" for Maine, but it's just something about her that rubs people the wrong way. I'd be behind her daughter Hannah if she went for it, though.

IMHO Pingree would be very good for Vermont, not especially good for not so liberal Maine and awful for new Hampshire)))). Something like that))

[smoltchanov]

She almost lost her district in 2008, and again in 2010. It's not as if she's that strong of a candidate to put up.

Not so, if i remember correctly. She beat moderate Republican by 55-45 in very good Democratic year 2008 and then - his conservative primary opponent by 57-43 in 2010. So technically she even improved. But, again, the quality (or the lack of one) of a candidate was a key factor here: it's an idiocy to run a strongly conservative candidate in ME-01 even in such year as 2010... The same as to run "a progressive" Democrat in AL-02 or MS-04

[smoltchanov]

I wouldn't like Michaud, but whatever.

I don't think it's that Pingree is "too liberal" for Maine, but it's just something about her that rubs people the wrong way. I'd be behind her daughter Hannah if she went for it, though.

IMHO Pingree would be very good for Vermont, not especially good for not so liberal Maine and awful for new Hampshire)))). Something like that))

And great for Massachusetts and Rhode Island, alright for Connecticut

Yes! We can mention all states this way. Very good to great for some, bad fo awful - for other..)))

[smoltchanov]

The idea of Pingree being "too liberal" for Maine is downright silly. She represents 50% of the state already, has strong name recognition that likely beats out any current Republican challenger.

Maine is a state that in the span of 15 years, has elected Angus King, Susan Collins/Olympia Snowe, Chellie Pingree, John Baldacci, and Paul LePage. Pingree obviously is aware that she needs to run a statewide campaign, and will need to attract independent Maine voters. At best for the GOP, this will be a close race. Worst case scenario for the GOP, Pingree gets a major advantage by riding Obama's coattails and they end up with a candidate with little name recognition.

It/s not so silly as it seems. Mayne is, surely, left-of-center state, but NOT very liberal state. and Pingree is not only very liberal, but  not especially popular among  "non-activist crowd". Both politically and personally. She won with 55% in stellar Democrativc 2008 against resonable Republican, who could beat her if he ran in 2010. Instead, Republican candidate in 2010 was a far-right conservative, who didn't inspired eveyone, but tea-party crowd. The good indidcator of her "popularity" was her Senate campaign against Collins, which she lost rather badly in relatively "neutral" year.

And Obama is also not especially popular right now. He will win Maine, but not by landslide. If Republicans nominate Santorum or Gingrich - another matter.. So ME-01 is, probably, likely Democrtic, but still NOT sure thing... ME-Senate - rather Leans Democratic now, but with everyone, but well-known and very moderate Republican - likely Democratic too (i don't consider Independents right now)... If Pingree will be Democratic candidate, someone like Raye - Republican, AND King will run as Indie - i will bet on King. Anything may happen here

[smoltchanov]

Well, i don't see Republicans right now. winning this race with candidates who declared or likely to declare. Their best chances would be 1-1 Pingree-Summers race. But even it would begin as lean Democratic... All other likely Republican candidates would almost assuredly lose either to Pingree in 1-1 race (even though she isn't especially popular) or, say, to King in 3-way race..

[smoltchanov]

After her birth control mandate vote, good riddance.

I will say just opposite: "Thank you, Senator Snowe, for being true to your principles. Even after announcing retirement.."

[smoltchanov]

What are her principles?

Morderation and compromise. 2 principles i value most of all in politics, which, essentially, is "an art of compromise". And i really dislike (almost tio the level of hate)  boneheaded ideological "purists"

[smoltchanov]

I too am wondering this, unless the Golden Mean Fallacy can be considered a principle.

Look at my answer to redcommander))))

[smoltchanov]

They were to vote as right-wing as possible to help the national party as one can get away with in the 3rd least religious state until she finally had enough with this birth control vote and decided to quit.

You are not opposed to Democrats voting "as left-wing as possible to help national party..." (and so on), don't you? Then why do you condemn her? IMHO - BOTH parties now (and, especially, their activists, who tend to hew to the most extreme politics of their parties) are huge hypocrites right now: they readly allow itself (and justify it) to do things, which they condemn in opposite party. Hence - my deep dislike of BOTH parties as they are now...