Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.

It looks to me now that Bennet is really close to losing everything. I could see all of Shaked, Shikli, Silman and Kara leaving him and just Orbach and Kahana remaining loyal. If that happens I wonder if he still takes the PM spot with a 3 seat party not even named Yamina or if it's election #5.

I guess we could see a coalition of the 60 who recommended Lapid plus Balad abstaining, but that'd be very close and I doubt Sa'ar will go along.

What a git. You own the party and have no primaries. If you can get the six behind you to back you how can you form a government.
If it’s just him and Saar it’s either Saar takes the lead or no rotation. He can’t be PM with a faction of 3, it would look pathetic.

The funny thing is everyone could see Shakes plotting from behind miles away. Gantz might make a revival in round 5 before he becomes PM in November.

Anyway Bibi now failed to form a government thrice. Livni, Peres, Ben Gurion, and Rosen all failed once.

Who's Rosen?

Felix Rosenblat, later Pinhas Rosen, leader of the Progressive Party in the 50’s. Received the mandate in 51 from Weitzman as everyone disliked working with Ben Gurion

[Hnv1]

Shikli (Yamina) announces he will vote against the unity government. Shaked and the rest give full backing. With Ra’am they have exactly 61 for the swearing and don’t have to court the JL to abstain.

I hope they realize this needs to be done sooner rather than later and drag it 28 days. Bibi will work 24/7 from now on to demolish this project before completion.

[Hnv1]

Are there any Likudniks who could switch to the Lapid-Bennett camp once they see which way the wind blows?

Doubt. all suspects already jumped ship with Saar. At most you'll have minor revolts against Bibi the longer they stay in opposition. If the coalition is still stable after 2-3 years we might see Haim Katz and such eying Saar but I don't think that much will change.
Likud caucus now is either full blown Bibists (Ohana style), future PM material in their own mind (Katz, Edelstein, Barkat), and some placeholders like Steinitz and Dichter.

[Hnv1]

This might be the wrong place to ask this question but I'll go: given all the swings and the PR system, who's the longest serving member of the Knesset? would it be Netanyahu?

I'm guessing there's no longevity in office like the UK where you had Kenneth Clarke from 1970 until recently or Don Young who's been hanging around the House since 1973.

Used to be Amir Peretz. Now I THINK it's Tzahi Hanegbi and Netanyahu tied, or something?

Both were elected in that 88 snooze fest. Hanegbi has the seniority as he served more years while Netanyahu had 4 years outside. From the 92 batch we have Deri’i I believe

[Hnv1]

Triple meeting between Lapid, Saar, Bennett. Seems everything is practically agreed between them now they need to get all the rest to line up. YB issued a chunky (but very reasonable) set of demands today. Bennett is meeting with Michaeli ATM, and her partner (the comedian Lior Schlein) is indicating she was offered the Agriculture Ministry (this might be a joke idk). That won't do. Meretz demand education but it seems they won't get it and may be offered Health.
Part for Gantz no one can really afford to say no so very little wriggle room. Though Lapid would be wise to give Michaeli something bigger if he doesn't want her to create mini-crises all the time.

[Hnv1]

Triple meeting between Lapid, Saar, Bennett. Seems everything is practically agreed between them now they need to get all the rest to line up. YB issued a chunky (but very reasonable) set of demands today. Bennett is meeting with Michaeli ATM, and her partner (the comedian Lior Schlein) is indicating she was offered the Agriculture Ministry (this might be a joke idk). That won't do. Meretz demand education but it seems they won't get it and may be offered Health.
Part for Gantz no one can really afford to say no so very little wriggle room. Though Lapid would be wise to give Michaeli something bigger if he doesn't want her to create mini-crises all the time.

I'm pretty sure Agriculture is a joke. But it seems she's being offered Internal Security, which I hope she refuses because it's a poisoned role. Shaked should be Internal Security.

That’s a good position for her. Reform the much-in-need-of-total-overhaul police, and a statutory place in the security cabinet. I see the appeal for Michaeli there. Horowitz would be thrilled with Health. So I guess that’s that.
Another meeting with Gantz now...it seems they’re pitching the portfolios now in order to announce it before Shabbat, thus forcing Levine to hold the vote no further than next Thursday and block haredi pressure for 24 hours

[Hnv1]

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

[Hnv1]

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?

Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.

[Hnv1]

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?

Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.

For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.

Shaked, Hendel, and Tamano Shata respectively. Not to defect but simply vote against.

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

[Hnv1]

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?

Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.

For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.

Shaked, Hendel, and Tamano Shata respectively. Not to defect but simply vote against.

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

I never understood this Tamano Shata thing honestly. She's been against Netanyahu for a long while and came from yesh atid

Very right wing and pro settlers and with a deep dislike to Arabs.

It seems Michaeli is demanding the home office. A reform in the police is more important than some US reform Jews, she better come to terms in a day or two

[Hnv1]

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai

That was damage control on her part. of course, they talked ministries, they didn't seat in her living room for an hour talking on the virtues of deliberative democracy. Michaeli should be careful, Ya'alon was an oaf, Huldai the sole ruler of his kingdom, and Shelah naive. She's sitting with people with accumulated months of coalition building and she should punch over her weight.
With no ministerial experience, she should take what's given. 

From my sources, though Horowitz wants a ministry for Freg the red camp in the party is dying for government and will force him to take whatever is offered. Golan will be bitter but he might get a spot in the Defence Committee to shout his boomer nonsense.

[Hnv1]

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai

There is no political rationale for keeping Michaeli from becoming interior minister. She should absolutely feel okay about walking away from negotiations if Bennet and Saar want to box her out. Horowitz should get education, but I could see him getting transportation and being fine with it because he could (and probably would) establish Saturday public transit.

My feeling is that things are more touch and go than it seems. Bennet has an empty hand so it is unlikely he will cause too many problems, but I do feel like the gulf between Meretz and Yamina and Raam is so wide and the margin of error so thin that anything could happen. Bennet and Shaked could even crawl back to Netanyahu, try to get the mandate for the knesset, and preen for the eight wing base before a fifth election. Some people, including Ben Caspit, seem to think thisbis pretty much done, but I think there is no chance Merav gets health and Horowitz gets culture or whatever and the right wing just dominates a coalition propped up by leftist votes. The left will demand more and won't really suffer politically if things blow up. Not saying they will blow up, but I think this is less done than people suppose.

I'm not sure *SHE* wants that ministry. she seems to be saying she wants the treasury, but in fact wants to Home Office. She does have a bit of an ego, interior security gives her a place in the cabinet and control over the troublesome police.
Horowitz will take transportation\health, and environmental protection will go to Zandberg making Meretz very happy. they'll let go of education.

[Hnv1]

According to channel 12 (caution- they've been wrong in many, many occasions) Yamina has presented an ultimatum that Shaked gets Justice (rather than Sa'ar). Bunch of gluttons.

More like Shaked is trying to spin to get something that hag.

[Hnv1]

Is Begin likely to get a Cabinet seat if Lapid forms the government?

Probably be in government on the right bloc quota. Not sure about cabinet (in the Israeli sense).

The Norwegian law means that:
Places 7 and 8 in Meretz and Sara’s lists could get in instead of two ministers.
Three subs for Yamina, YB, Labour, B&W for three ministers from each.
Five subs for five ministers from YA

I assume most parties will use it to enable Knesset work and keep more people happy

[Hnv1]

Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

Didn't Lapid get the mandate from the President to be PM?

Yeah, but it'll probably be a rotation with Bennet for 2 years and Lapid for the next 2.

Oh, right, the agreement will be similar with those in the 80's between Likud and Alignment.

The 80’s rotation was a gentleman’s agreement, Shamir got the mandate and two years later Peres got it and formed the same government (or the other way around). Now the rotation mechanism was built to the constitution so you can form a government as first or second PM, or simply as PM.

[Hnv1]

By built into the constitution, do you mean that Bennett and Lapid are recycling the Netanyahu/Gantz agreement of 2020? Will one of them get to be 'Alternate Prime Minister' with veto power over everything? Is their agreement only for 3 years, with 18-month terms for both, rather than 4 years and 2-year terms?

Not who you were responding to, but basically, yes & yes. What Bibi & Gantz codified into the Basic Law last year were binding general provisions for a rotation government, as opposed to provisions that applied to their own agreement only, & remain in force 'til a Knesset repeals them, so Bennett & Lapid would - like Bibi & Netanyahu before them - still be solely responsible for their own ministers. And it's being reported that the deal will be for 2 years, a swap, & then 2 more years.

Aye the general mechanism of PM and the alternate with a rotation date set by the swearing in is now simply another option of government formation. There is a pending appeal against it in the SC, Likud can’t object now as it they are an estoppel.

This once temporary solution is going to be long running. Rotation government is what happens when a culture-of-honour meets the liberal rule-of-law

[Hnv1]

Two UTJ MKs call for Bibi to move aside for a year and a half so another right wing candidate will form a 65 seats government.
Not sure if it’s a small mutiny or an elaborate spin by Bibi, as they suggest he will continue to manage the relations with the US and the fight against Iran which was pretty much what he offered Bennett anyhow. Could be a desperate attempt to stall the coalition talks.

[Hnv1]

If the won’t declare so today Levine will push the vote to next week

[Hnv1]

Presidential election will be held in 2.6. candidates have to submit 10 signatures from MKs until 19.5, so expect a flurry of activity this and next week.

Herzog the frontrunner atm. Bibi has a week to decide what he does, I suppose he will look into it after the government is sworn in

[Hnv1]

Well, we're not getting a government for a while yet.

How convenient

[Hnv1]

The likely government we could've had:
PM Bennet
Foreign Lapid
Defense Gantz
Finance Lieberman
Justice Sa'ar
Education Shasha Biton
Home Shaked
Transportation Michaeli
Health Horovitz
Internal Security Bar Lev
Environment Zandberg
Welfare Barbivai
Social Equality Merav Cohen
Communications Elharar
Immigration Tamano Shata
Culture and Sports Trooper
Religion Kahana
Agriculture Ben Barak
Speaker Meir Cohen

Depressing that we've lost this. Would've been so much better

No one wanted the ministry of Economy? I think we should agree on the chancellor in Israel being the treasury, more in line with the Hebrew origin (אוצר לא מימון).

But aye, this coalition is gone. There will be a new coalition after round 5, but I think without the left by then.

[Hnv1]

I definitely don't want to put on a conspiracy theory hat, but a large part of me thinks Netanyahu found and exploited the weak link in the coalition. I certainly think he's capable of that.

Did he orchestrate it? no, I don't think so.
Is he to blame? yes, but allowing Ohana and the new chief of police to run amok
will he take advantage of it politically? you can bet you Yankee behind on it

[Hnv1]

Bennett pulls out of the coalition talks. Now it’s either he talks Saar into a right wing coalition with him first. Or fifth election

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1392888625382232068

More accurate: Shaked finished him and stabbed him in the back. Now Bibi moves to desperately try and annul the rotation.

Bennett is done politically. He will carry on for a decade or two but he will never ever be PM

[Hnv1]

Likud will not support anyone officially for president. Odd move