2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Lisa's voting Biden]

CA-50 poll, a DEM internal, shows Darrell Issa up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244076183853162496?s=20

[Libertas Vel Mors]

CA-50 poll, a DEM internal, shows Darrell Issa up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244076183853162496?s=20

LOL

Safe R

[Roll Roons]

CA-50 poll, a DEM internal, shows Darrell Issa up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244076183853162496?s=20

LOL

Safe R

Yeah, this was only close in 2018 because of Hunter. Ditto NY-27 and IA-04 if King loses the primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

CA-50 poll, a DEM internal, shows Darrell Issa up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244076183853162496?s=20

LOL

Safe R

Yeah, this was only close in 2018 because of Hunter. Ditto NY-27 and IA-04 if King loses the primary.

Issa will win but let's not pretend like he is some beloved politician. I reckon this is a district with a lot of high-information voters and they are probably familiar with him, his asshole-ish personality, and his carpetbagging.

[Greedo punched first]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

[Brittain33]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

[Greedo punched first]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

Could CA-53 be a close race?

[Brittain33]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

Could CA-53 be a close race?

Only in a Democratic landslide, I think.

[Greedo punched first]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

Could CA-53 be a close race?

Only in a Democratic landslide, I think.

It’s D vs. D, so could the race be close?

[Brittain33]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

Could CA-53 be a close race?

Only in a Democratic landslide, I think.

It’s D vs. D, so could the race be close?

Oh ignore me. I saw the poll about CA-50 and thought it was that race.

[Greedo punched first]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

Could CA-53 be a close race?

Only in a Democratic landslide, I think.

It’s D vs. D, so could the race be close?

Oh ignore me. I saw the poll about CA-50 and thought it was that race.

Could the race between Georgette Gomez and Sara Jacobs be close? Jacobs is a political outsider with better fundraising, but Gomez holds office, lives in the district (Jacobs lives in CA-49), and has support from the establishment and the Justice Democrats.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Cook made House rating changes in 10 districts today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-fall-outlook-shifts-10-districts

FL-26: Likely D to Lean D
IL-06: Lean D to Likely D
IL-14: Toss Up to Lean D
MI-08: Toss Up to Lean D
MO-02: Likely R to Lean R
NY-19: Toss Up to Lean D
NC-08: Solid R to Likely R
NC-09: Likely R to Solid R
TX-31: Lean R to Likely R
UT-04: Toss Up to Lean D

A lot of these are odd. Democrats aren’t getting stronger in some suburban areaas and simultaneously worse in others that are demographically similar

I believe they are mostly based on Wasserman's subjective assessment of the quality of their likely challengers.

[Gracile]

Congressional campaigns will likely see big drops in their Q1 fundraising numbers because of COVID-19. It will be interesting to see which candidates will hold up better than others.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Grinnell/Selzer poll has Trump's job approval at *+3* yet at the same time...

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1245275743363325952

[SnowLabrador]

Grinnell/Selzer poll has Trump's job approval at *+3* yet at the same time...

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1245275743363325952

Either this is a junk poll or 2020 is going to be a Democratic tsunami. Going with the former, as Trump's approval rating +3 is a bit of an outlier.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

I stopped reading at “McLaughlin”

[Person Man]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

I stopped reading at “McLaughlin”

Didn't they have Democrats losing in their last poll last time?

[Landslide Lyndon]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

I stopped reading at “McLaughlin”

Didn't they have Democrats losing in their last poll last time?

They had them losing a few days before the 2018 election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Crystal Ball updated their senate rankings-

Maine: Lean R to Tossup
Arizona: Tossup to Lean D (!!!)
Georgia: Lean R to Likely R

Georgia is the regular race.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Crystal Ball updated their senate rankings-

Maine: Lean R to Tossup
Arizona: Tossup to Lean D (!!!)
Georgia: Lean R to Likely R

Georgia is the regular race.

Agreed with all of these except Georgia. That race will go whichever way the Presidential race in Georgia goes, and by all accounts Georgia is no better than Lean R for Trump

[SnowLabrador]

Crystal Ball updated their senate rankings-

Maine: Lean R to Tossup
Arizona: Tossup to Lean D (!!!)
Georgia: Lean R to Likely R

Georgia is the regular race.

Agreed with all of these except Georgia. That race will go whichever way the Presidential race in Georgia goes, and by all accounts Georgia is no better than Lean R for Trump

Even if Biden wins Georgia, Perdue ain't losing. Not with the garbage-tier opponents he has.

[Zaybay]

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/02/house-democrats-add-two-more-districts-to-their-target-list/


The Democrats have added 3 more seats to their Red-to-Blue program.

OH-10
AR-02
TX-22

[Brittain33]

Crystal Ball updated their senate rankings-

Maine: Lean R to Tossup
Arizona: Tossup to Lean D (!!!)
Georgia: Lean R to Likely R

Georgia is the regular race.

Agreed with all of these except Georgia. That race will go whichever way the Presidential race in Georgia goes, and by all accounts Georgia is no better than Lean R for Trump

There’s the runoff for Senate, though.

[Virginiá]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

I stopped reading at “McLaughlin”

Technically, McLaughlin is near the end of the tweet, so you read just about everything