Long term Republican counties that will flip Democrat

[sinngael]

Which counties that have voted Republican for decades will soon flip to Democrat, in say 2020? I'm thinking the likes of Duval and Seminole in Florida, Morris in NJ, Maricopa obvisously, Johnson KS maybe. Any others you can think of?

[Sir Mohamed]

Macipoa County, AZ is an obvious candidate.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Riley, Kansas has literally never voted Democratic for President and it has a good chance of flipping in 2020.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Forsyth County, Georgia and Washington County, Wisconsin are lean D in 2020.

[sinngael]

Forsyth and Washington really, didn't Trump win those by more than 40%. Would be amazing to see a swing that large in those counties.

[Politician]

Forsyth and Washington really, didn't Trump win those by more than 40%. Would be amazing to see a swing that large in those counties.

You don't realize that 2016 trends are set in stone. Williamson County, TN is a tossup in 2020 because it's educated and suburban.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Memes aside, here's some that I think have a good chance of flipping for the first time in at least 20 years, along with the last time they voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate:

Maricopa, AZ - 1948
Yuma, AZ - 1964
Duval, FL - 1976
Seminole, FL - 1948
Ada, ID - 1936
Johnson, KS - 1916
Shawnee, KS - 1992
Riley, KS - Never
Frederick, MD - 1964
Anoka, MN - 1996
Morris, NJ - 1964
Lenoir, NC - 1964
New Hanover, NC - 1976
Deschutes, OR - 1992
Polk, OR - 1964
Hays, TX - 1992
Williamson, TX - 1976
Chesterfield, VA - 1948
James City, VA - 1968
Lynchburg, VA - 1948
Stafford, VA - 1976
Virginia Beach, VA - 1964

Honorable mentions (counties that could flip D, but seem unlikely):
Garfield, CO - 1992
Sarasota, FL - 1948
Allen, IN - 1964
Hamilton, IN - 1916
Talbot, MD - 1964
Wicomico, MD - 1964
Lafayette, MS - 1980
Delaware, Ohio - 1916
Oklahoma, OK - 1964
Yamhill, OR - 1964
Cumberland, PA - 1964
Lancaster, PA - 1964
Tarrant, TX - 1964
San Juan, UT - 1936

[Politician]

Counties that haven't voted Democratic once in the 21st century that could flip:

Maricopa, AZ - Tossup
Pinal, AZ - Likely R
Navajo, AZ - Likely R
Yuma, AZ - Tilt R
Washington, AR - Likely R
Kern, CA - Likely R
Garfield, CO - Likely R
Duval, FL - Tossup
Sarasota, FL - Likely R
Seminole, FL - Tossup
Ada, ID - Lean R
Dallas, IA - Lean R
Johnson, KS - Lean D
Riley, KS - Tossup
Shawnee, KS - Tilt D
Frederick, MD - Tilt D
Talbot, MD - Likely R
Grand Traverse, MI - Likely R
Anoka, MN - Lean R
Goodhue, MN - Likely R
Scott, MN - Likely R
Lafayette, MS - Likely R
Platte, MO - Likely R
Park, MT - Likely R
Hunterdon, NJ - Likely R
Morris, NJ - Tossup
Ontario, NY - Likely R
Franklin, NC - Likely R
Lenoir, NC - Lean R
New Hanover, NC - Tossup
Oklahoma, OK - Likely R
Descheutes, OR - Tilt D
Polk, OR - Lean R
Yamhill, OR - Likely R
Cumberland, PA - Likely R
Beaufort, SC - Likely R
Florence, SC - Likely R
Hays, TX - Likely D
Nueces, TX - Tilt D
Tarrant, TX - Likely R
Williamson, TX - Lean R
San Juan, UT - Likely R
Chesterfield, VA - Tilt D
James City, VA - Tilt R
Lynchburg, VA - Lean R
Stafford, VA - Likely R
Virginia Beach, VA - Tossup
Spokane, WA - Likely R