VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Mr.Phips]

What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

I wouldn't say that at all.  It could actually be argued that being governor actually helps your party in the off-cycle.  These are the results for the most recent off year elections :

2015:. McAuliffe(D): D+1 in House, no change in Senate
2011:  McDonnell (R): R+8 in House, R+2 in Senate
2007:. Kaine(D): D+4 in House, D+4 in Senate

The last off year that really went against the governor's party was 1991 when Doug Wilder was very unpopular.

[Mr.Phips]

So when Democrats run a hard hitting ads against a Republican, they are going over the line?  Were Republicans going over the line when in 2002 they ran ads in Georgia saying that Max Cleland was just like Osama Bin Laden because he supported civil service protections for Department of Homeland Security employees?  No, they were considered "patriotic" for this as and defeated Cleland.  The Cleland/Bin Laden ad was far more inappropriate than the "Truck" ad.

[Mr.Phips]

Good god, if Dems blow this one....

[Mr.Phips]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

Democrats would deserve it.

[Mr.Phips]

If I were Northam, I would be way more worried about that idiotic 3rd party ad (it could have singlehandedly given Gillespie Trump's rural margins) than I would be about DFA and the 2016 primary stuff.  Sanders got 35% in VA and DFA is now a fringe group obsessed with identity politics and he might actually be better off having them publicly oppose him.

Northam should have just stood by that ad the same way Saxby Chambliss did in 2002 when Republicans ran an ad saying that Max Cleland was just like Osama Bin Laden for supporting civil service protection for Dept of Homeland Security employees.  Democrats need to stop apologizing for attacking Republicans for who they are. 

[Mr.Phips]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

His problem was that Dems tried to clumsily disavow the ad.  Dems should have stuck by the ad like Republicans would have and moved on to other things.

[Mr.Phips]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

I'd say that the 2012 Kaine/Allen race was a bit different because we knew that if Obama won Virginia, so would Kaine.  There was almost no worry about turnout issues like there are now.

[Mr.Phips]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?

That too. Kaine only led in RCP by 3 and won by 6 in 2005

The trajectory in the 2005 race was the opposite though.  Kilgore had the lead up until around 10/20 and then after that, polls started showing Kaine ahead.  Kaine went into election day with clear momentum unlike Northam.