UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I do love how we replaced our EU size punching bag with a France sized one.

Not that Macron exactly helps himself. What he did over Astra Zeneca was shameless and brushed under the carpet by many FBPE types.

It's just as much in France's interest to keep the tiff going with the Presidential election there next Spring.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I do think the legalisation of same-sex marriage is an underrated factor in the breakthrough of UKIP in 2012-13. Especially among activists it was it was the first big driver of Conservative defections.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I don't think liberalrepublican is so wrong. If the Tories are out of ideas in office (and they seem to be right now, Brexit is going nowhere and "levelling up" has been a damp squib) then their best bet might be to run hard on trans issues if it helps hold the base onside. But I don't think it would be a positive sign for winning the next election, more a "least worst option" strategy. Trans issues would be a rather poor substitute for immigration as a wedge issue, which one can directly tie to wages/the economy and public services. Seems to me a problem the Tories have is being in office for long enough that they now own migration.

As for Starmer being unable to control his party, well he was able to push through a change to leadership election rules in the teeth of bitter opposition from the left, so...I mean it's quite possible the left of the party will cause him problems in the future but it seems like Starmer has that flank secure at this point in time.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I would love to know what these amazing opportunities are that the government are inexplicably not taking.

Brexit cannot fail, it can only be failed, apparently.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If you've lost Ally Pally...

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1473067440623996932

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is just another of those stupid stories written for people who are interested in politics but don't have a clue.

A couple of months ago it was two Labour MPs about to defect to the Tories.
Last month it was some Tories ready to defect to Reform UK.
Last week it was a group of Red Wall Tories planning on defecting to Labour.
This week it's Corbyn starting a new party.

Next week we can look forward to Layla Moran joining the Ulster Unionists or some such nonsense.

Also the one about Scottish Labour standing pro-indy candidates, LOL

[Statilius the Epicurean]

One of the most interesting things about that poll is the Lib Dem VI is only up 1% on their 2019 result. That suggests to me there's been a significant LD -> Lab movement which has been matched by a movement Con -> LD. The much-speculated "pincer movement" that would be really alarming for the Tories.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Okay well how about a more far reaching arrangement where the parties never run in the same seat unless it’s a Lab/Lib seat.

Tactical voting is an integral part of the political culture here. The sort of residual vote for one of the 'progressive' parties after a squeeze in a Tory marginal would be more likely to stay at home or vote Conservative if their party wasn't on the ballot.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It’s quite impressive that Boris is going to survive this- most likely without even a confidence vote happening.

Or as Matthew Parris suggests in his somewhat scathing Times piece today, it says the most about the collective cowardice within the parliamentary Tory party.

May showed how difficult it is to remove a sitting PM who refuses to go. And all of the reports about the whips' skulduggery has made it look like Boris has gone scorched earth.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Focus groups can always be overinterpreted but an interesting one

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1524663988440776705?t=fXmfivD7WpmQ-uO...

Re: "Beergate", this bit was particularly interesting:

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1524664052403867648?t=xBLYVWAiEc0D8e7...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wonder if they're now waiting for

Heard this a million times. I'll believe there's a leadership challenge when I see one.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wonder if they're now waiting for

Heard this a million times. I'll believe there's a leadership challenge when I see one.

I don't think they'd want to rush into knifing the guy who got them an 80-seat majority. However, it's hard to see them being stupid enough to wait three years, know they will lose their seats with him, not have anything other than electability attracting them to him anyway, and then just go ahead and lose an election. Inertia is powerful and these leadership changes always take a while.

Yawn. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Cabinet finally had enough? I mean ordinarily you'd say this is unsurvivable but no doubt Johnson will still try to stick it out.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Boris briefing that they’re going for deficit financed tax cuts now Rishi’s gone.

Absolute economic lunacy when inflation is over 9% but when has macroeconomic illiteracy stopped the Tories before?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Yeah I give it a couple of days maximum if that, and purely for technical reasons if they need to hold another VONC. He’s donezo.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I don't even get what the Boris plan is now. It's inevitable you're going to lose the VONC as soon as it's able to happen. So what is even the point of fighting? The only possible way to avert it is to go to the Palace ASAP.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I don't even get what the Boris plan is now. It's inevitable you're going to lose the VONC as soon as it's able to happen. So what is even the point of fighting? The only possible way to avert it is to go to the Palace ASAP.

Even that would be pointless as he'd certainly lose an election under these circumstances and he'd take the party down with him, but I dunno maybe he'll do it out of spite.

Well, probably yes. But he believes he has magic election-winning powers and probably fancies there's a chance to dig one out against an untested Labour with some "SNP coalition of chaos" line.

I also wonder how much of it is wanting to last longer in office than May did (28 days behind by my count).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

How did repealing the Fixed-Term Parliament Act work exactly? I'm far from an expert on British constitutional law, but my understanding was that the royal prerogative to dissolve the legislature was a matter of common law, which once codified by the Coalition was forever annulled because the legislature cannot create common law.

The law that repealed it explicitly said that 1. it was restoring the situation as if the FTPA had never been passed and 2. this was non-justiciable. It might not technically have been "constitutional" because of the understanding of common law you mention, but this is the UK we're talking about.

Acts of Parliament are supreme over common law and always have been.

The idea that British constitutional law is a part of common law is controversial and not generally accepted.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Going to be funny when Johnson as caretaker tries to reverse ferret on his resignation in two months’ time.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

On the tail end of Covid, but I have had a better week than Boris.

What's the deal? I see all these ministers resigning and refusing to work over some kind of scandal involving drunken parties during COVID restrictions...?

It's not my job to educate you.