Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

If Putin, like a caged rabid animal, feels the need now to lash out and go for the mass destruction of Kyiv and Kharhiv, with it all instantly televised across the world explosion by explosion, I wonder if it will anneal the political will of the West to do what is necessary to "destroy" the Russian economy and degrade its ability to wage war,  irrespective of considerable cost to themselves and damage to their own economies. Living the good life is not about bread alone. Does the West agree, or is it all just about maximizing one's own wealth these days?

Russia needs to be marginalized and removed from the world economic system as much as possible. Purchasing raw materials from Russia is blood money. And for the moment, it does seem that the pathos of it all has already caused the West to go farther and faster than it had ever imagined to punish Putin.  If Putin really goes for the max here, it will be interesting as Russia segues into a an economic basket case just how much China is willing to bail it out as its favorite welfare case.

[Torie]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

My guy. Your country is providing equipment and military intelligence to Ukraine, and helped organise one of the most coordinated sanctions packages in history. That’s how the West intervenes.

Sending our planes, ships or troops would be the opening salvo in an East-West war and take us within inches of nuclear war. That’s why we’re running non-direct action, and that’s why I find this cheerleading so disturbing.

Last I heard, Poland is providing MiGs to Ukraine along with pilots to fly the planes. That's as damn close as we can get to actual boots on the ground without provoking a massive broader war.

I actually don't know how it doesn't count as direct intervention. I'll leave that to the strategerists.

I’m afraid the news about the MiGs may be incorrect.

Yesterday, EU foreign policy high representative Josep Borrell incorrectly implied the EU itself was delivering/funding fighter jet deliveries when that was not the case. Another diplomat who said they’d be “flying within the hour” was wildly speculating. At the present moment, an EU spokesperson has clarified, member states are able to deliver jets of their own accord, but not collectively or with guaranteed EU funding. There is ongoing discussion of further measures, and I’ve found no statement from Polish representatives confirming a delivering of any jets.

There has been movement of large transports between Poland and Ukraine, but there’s no confirmation that jets have actually been , or will be, sent (although Ukraine has requested them). If the EU is still discussing this and member states are not acting of their own accord, they may find their deliveries have no Ukranian Air Force to work with by the time they are delivered. It is also possible there simply isn’t the desire to send any, and the Russians did claim that they have air supremacy as of this morning.

All that said, if I were head of an ex-Soviet state delivering warplanes to Ukraine, I would only confirm it once those planes had been up in the air and noticed by Russia for some time. EU states gave Ukraine air-to-air missiles yesterday, so I would guess they still have functional jets.

If I were Poland or whomever delivering warplanes to Ukraine, 1) I would not publicize it, and 2) if it were reported that I was, to the extent necessary, I would take a page out of the Putin playbook, and deny it, or mislead. No such planes are being delivered to Ukraine. That statement is technically true because they were delivered an hour ago, which is past tense rather than present tense.

[Torie]

New reports just in:

Russian students began to be expelled from universities in France, the Czech Republic, Belgium and other countries because of the war, authorities say.

 The Ministry of Education and Science knows how to console (actually not): expelled students will continue their studies at leading Russian universities for free

Very retarded [stupid] decision IMO.

 

What is the source please?

[Torie]

A few years ago I came to the conclusion that sports events tied to nations are bad, something with which I don't want to be associated, and do not watch. Their ratings will not be enhanced by moi. They should all be shut down, starting with the Olympics.

[Torie]

Nexta has backtracked almost immediately. Talks are not over, the delegations were taking a break.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498306376916996097?cxt=HHwWgsC4jcTthsspAAAA

Do you think that means anything?

Presumably the underlings in the room do not have the authority to do anything without the blessing of their respective leaders, and that includes ending the negotiations. I assume that while they go on, the war is not on pause, but is that in fact the case?

[Torie]

From "unreliable" NEXTA again:


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498316842888273928

That seems totally unbelievable.

[Torie]

A few years ago I came to the conclusion that sports events tied to nations are bad, something with which I don't want to be associated, and do not watch. Their ratings will not be enhanced by moi. They should all be shut down, starting with the Olympics.

The Olympics should not be shut down

The planet put my good advice on ignore, so I have every confidence that you will be able to continue to watch these distasteful  displays of nationalism attended by corruption.

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tvrain/status/1498319404660142084
Putin spoke with Macron According to the Kremlin, a settlement with Ukraine is possible if "taking into account the legitimate interests of Russia in the field of security":
- recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
- demilitarization [rendering Ukraine defenseless] and denazification [regime change with Putin puppet] of Ukraine
- ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine

No signs of a climb down from Putin yet.

If Putin harped on that, the call would have lasted for 5 minutes, not 90.

[Torie]

Mod Notice

All recent posts quoting and referring to Russian propaganda, even those rightfully slamming it, have been deleted. No infractions except for the original poster.

I instantly get suspicious of anything that does not have an active link, precluding one from inspecting its provenance. The Russian propaganda image had no such link.

[Torie]

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us:https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086?s=20&t=63nIGAgRu...

Man, it would be such a shame if someone turned it into another Highway of Death...

Wow, what an image!

Is substantial infantry accompanying that column? If not, and if the UA army has night goggles, at night blast away with anti-tank weapons on that column. And I assume if there is no air force action on that column, that at this point the skies are sadly not contested now. Is all that armor being on the road mean the ground is too soft for cross country travel? If so, anything to block the arterials would be worthy of attempting.

So says the aged paper pushing lawyer with zero military expertise. Thanks for your indulgence.

[Torie]

Seems like light progress was made

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1498343519609573380

I think the best case scenario for these talks is pretty much status quo ante bellum with the LPR keeping some of its gains and the North Crimean Canal remaining unobstructed.

Overall, the best case scenario for Ukraine is to hold out long enough and hope that Putin's regime collapses and in the chaos, the Ukrainians are able to retake their entire country (including Crimea). The best case scenario for Russia is collapse of the Ukrainian government and taking complete military control of the country while remaining an international pariah and dealing with a bloody insurgency. Seems to me like the Russians' best case scenario really isn't that great...

... is predicated on the fact that their leverage right now is their current restraint. The losses that Russia have taken so far have given Zelenskyy some leverage, but if Russia starts threatening heavy bombardment of urban areas, Zelenskyy knows that thousands will die, likely including himself, although both of those are further still pretty comparable in terms of net impact, meaning that Russia maintaining a degree of restraint is really rather necessitated by the situation, because at the same time, if that happens, then that's where we &/or the rest of NATO sans the U.S. might get involved: although it's hard to say where it is exactly, there's some threshold after which NATO will weigh intervention as the best option, & I think we draw the line at civilians being bombed indiscriminately (which is why Zelenskyy was smart to arm & mobilize the people: it's hard for any Russian win to not look indiscriminate if the people are the ones who are in the streets attempting to fight Russian soldiers off, which is the overlooked consideration that ultimately unraveled Russia's initial plans, to be frank). Russia's gamble right now is trying to find the pressure point that's "just right" insofar as effectively forcing Zelenskyy or his corpse to cave without spurring NATO into legitimate action, & they're certainly testing where the line is.

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us: https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086

At the same time, the length of the convoy matters a lot less than its composition. More armor is useless without infantry support, & it's the mechanized infantry units that've been taking the heaviest losses. Motorized units, although weaker, require less fuel, & Russia needs more infantry if it has any hopes of taking control over cities. Deploying motorized brigades means that Russia is ready & willing to take heavy losses. Basically, imagine rolling into a war zone in a U-Haul.

Yes, an unknown is whether NATO will do nothing if Putin decides to fire bomb Kyiv and kill tens of thousands. One would think and hope NATO is pondering that, and if it decides at that point it could not do nothing, then perhaps somehow giving UA more assets from the air to punish that column tonight might be more desirable than waiting.

[Torie]

LOL:

"Russian Foreign Ministry also says German weapons are now supplied to Ukrainian Nazis and we should question whether Germany was successfully cleansed of Nazism"

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1498356982797017088

Putin never got the memo that whomever plays the Nazi card first loses I guess.

[Torie]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

Not sure, Putin seems determined that his demands are met and Ukraine can never agree to these terms. Even if the Ukrainian military is defeated, underground resistance in asymmetric warfare will continue. I think this conflict won't be over until Putin is done, ergo removed from power. In one way or another.

That is my opinion, and I think it is obvious. Putin is willing to pay the price, and bear any burden.

[Torie]

For all the talk about denazification and stopping a genocide, it bears repeating that the people being bombed with cluster munitions are the Russian speaking civilians of Kharkiv.

Sigh.  In WWII there were 5 battles of Kharkov.  I never thought I will see another battle of Kharkov.  Hopefully this madness stops and a peace can be worked out before the fighting actually reaches the city.

No doubt you have already know this, maybe before the NYT did, but this is one NYT article that might interest you one way or the other.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/russia-economy-sanctions-ukraine.html

[Torie]

Yikes! The downside of throwing such cocktails out of ordinary cars in a drive by is that the Russian troops might start firing at civilian automobiles on sight.

[Torie]

Debating the ludicrous proposition that there is some nexus between domestic covid conduct and international sanctions against Russia for its abhorrent invasion of Ukraine is a waste of bandwidth and a discourteous thread derailment to the participants of this thread.  If I were a mod here, I might be tempted just to delete all of such posts. Thank you.

Addendum: I see while I was typing the above, it appears that the posts were being deleted. I would not be offended if said mod deleted my post here if deemed appropriate. Thanks mod for reading my mind. 

[Torie]

Does anyone have an informed opinion as to whether Putin has gone nutter in a way that he was not before, and yes, you guessed it, that covid isolation might have had something to do with it?

https://thehill.com/policy/international/596269-worries-grow-over-putins-stability-mindset

[Torie]

“But the official added that the Russian convoy has made “no appreciable movement” towards Kyiv, and soldiers are running out of food. The official said there is “no reason to doubt” reports that Russian soldiers are also punching holes in their own fuel tanks to stop their vehicles advancing.”

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-day-6

Keep hope alive.

[Torie]

If Putin decides to blow Ukrainian cities to bits from missiles, because his troops have no stomach for carrying out his mad designs, killing tens of thousands of civilians, that is a red line. At that point it is no fly zone time. If Putin can kill from the air in that way, then it is time to close such air from being an arterial for the commission of such unspeakable acts.

And in tandem, I would hope and trust that considerable thought  is being given to the state of Putin's health.

Easy to say from a back bencher I understand. Biden is earning his pay these days. This is where the rubber meets the road. The rest relatively speaking is noise. I hope and trust this is the focus of his SOTU.

[Torie]

If Putin decides to blow Ukrainian cities to bits from missiles, because his troops have no stomach for carrying out his mad designs, killing tens of thousands of civilians, that is a red line. At that point it is no fly zone time. If Putin can kill from the air in that way, then it is time to close such air from being an arterial for the commission of such unspeakable acts.

And in tandem, I would hope and trust that considerable thought  is being given to the state of Putin's health.

Easy to say from a back bencher I understand. Biden is earning his pay these days. This is where the rubber meets the road. The rest relatively speaking is noise. I hope and trust this is the focus of his SOTU.

The issue is you cannot enforce that no-fly zone without starting WWIII.

At some point one cannot enable evil by the threat of MAD. Where the line is drawn is up for debate. That is why the easiest way out of the box would involve the state of Putin's health. I just don't believe Russia is in sync with Putin here. I feel bad for young people. It  is just so sad.

[Torie]

Here is a piece on sanctions and the Russian economy for Jaichind to lap up.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/economy/russia-imports-sanctions-economy/index.html

If Torie were POTUS, he would be interested in forcing the price of oil and other raw materials that Russia sells down, down, down, to bankrupt the Russian state and hasten its collapse. How in the world to do that? You flood the planet with oil etc while at the same time taxing its use to retard consumption, while yes, subsidizing green some more to further reduce demand over time. Yes, that means gas prices go up some more, but fighting and defeating evil is not for free, and Torie is not running for reelection. He plans to get his approval rating down to 10% by the end of his term. The idea however is for Putin's term to end before Torie's.

Wouldn't it be beautiful if the cost to pump oil out of the ground in Russia cost more than they could sell it?

[Torie]

Another day, another preventable tragedy.
The only question now is how far can Putin go without being challenged? Unfortunately this is an experiment in watching what a dictator who threatens with nukes can get away with. Make no mistake, China, Iran, and North Korea are watching.

Yes, I fear the experiment is whether, with the whole world watching, the West has the stomach to do nothing further while Putin fires missiles into Ukraine's major cities reducing them to dust ala Grozny until the explosions are just breaking down the rubble into smaller bits because nothing else is left - including people.  We now know to Putin is enough of a monster to do exactly that if he thinks it is necessary to restore Russia to its former glory as he sees it and that he can get away with it. How much poison can the Western stomach tolerate until it vomits it all out?

[Torie]

Maybe this has been put up already, but in a way Putin is causing his worst nightmare perhaps to happen. His invasion has turned the EU into a functional military alliance of its own, with Germany doubling its defense budget and others ratcheting up theirs as well. Why? You guessed it. They pondered what might have been if Trump had been President and one like him possibly being President in the future, and did not like what they "saw." So it is time that they ceased to be tied to the US hip, and be able to act independently, if need be. A new loci of military power has been born, and the EU is willing to pay the price, because free loading off the US has become way too risky a scheme. So ironically in that one sense only, Trump caused something positive to happen by getting elected, and then defeated.

And the EU munitions are pouring in, with the EU in the lead, and the US trying to catch up.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/europe/ukraine-putin-europe-security-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html

[Torie]

"Fringe extremist"? My view is on the fringe when it is shared by 1.4 billion people, and another 1.3 billion or so people share similar views, at least when it comes to how their respective governments have responded to the war? If you think my support for the CCP is "excessively weird", does it pain you to learn that by and large, Chinese people support the CCP and the government, particularly when the West and the USA are held up as an alternative?

I don't care if I have any support or no support. As I meet the standards of decorum on this forum, if you get me banned I will have been banned for my views and opinions and you will have shown your hypocrisy about free speech, a freedom deemed so important it is the First Amendment in the US Constitution. There is a saying in the US about free speech, or at least there used to be: "I disagree completely with what you say, but I defend to the death your right to say it."

This forum is not bound to follow the Bill of Rights, lol. I know you have contempt for the Constitution and everything it stands for, but your claim to free speech (1) Does not apply in this context, and (2) Is invalidated by the moral code you supposedly adhere to.

Sure, I don't deny that. This forum is free to ban me. But that is the ultimate display of hypocrisy; while arguing for "democracy and freedom" in supporting Ukraine, you're kicking me out because you disagree with my views.

You do realize that this is one of the few discussion forums that despite your expressing views on this topic that most posters find abhorrent, including most of the Mod team , and feel quite strongly about it (and obviously including me - Putin needs a bullet in his brain ASAP), that you are still here, correct? If you follow the TOS, you will not be banned. That is a core value with me. It is what makes this site special and attracted me to it in the first instance. So if you have a martyr complex, this is the wrong place for you. But be polite, even if baited. In this hot house situation, the judge and jury will tend to be a hanging jury if you get close to the line.

[Torie]

An interesting take on Ukraine and NATO security from a retired British general.

I hope he's wrong about the Baltic states but unfortunately i could see the logic from the Kremlins pov about a quick strike and take it over and then threaten the west with nukes if they dare to try and take it back. I hope though that the current showing from the Russian army in Ukraine will stop such ideas though.

You sit there listening to a man who is basically saying that it's back to a redux of the cold war, but this time the West is in a much more vulnerable position, and that Putin does not have the bureaucracy of a politburo to tell him no when he wants to use nukes. There are no such checks and balances. And then he of course questions whether the will is there in the West to divert trillions of dollars on a crash basis to preparing to wage the cold war with adequate deterrence, with the ensuing crash in standards of living. You want to dismiss this man as having read too many cold war turned hot novels - a doomerist on steroids - but given his credentials as you listen to this superbly articulate and informed and measured man, that off ramp into surcease is rendered unavailable.

The equally articulate chap lobbing out the questions did not however bring up the business of political assassination. That is almost certainly just as well. One just doesn't discuss such things publically in serious circles.

It's all seems quite grim. The guy also draws the obvious inference as to what is implied by that 40 mile column of the Russian military sitting on the road without much if any apparent molestation. I had hoped that perhaps he might draw a less obvious one based on his expertise, but no. There was no tapestry of any optimism whatsoever interwoven into the fabric of his analysis. It was unremittingly bleak.