The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[J. J.]

So you think there will be a massive polling failure on a scale unprecedented in recent United States elections? Cool.

No, I think PPP has a higher house effect that is being admitted to and that Marist is crap.  

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Everything I've head and seen is that Romney is hitting more, especially in the swing states.  

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Ah, no, I just posted the NC figures and I have posted the PA figures previously.  

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BTW, it was right the last time.  

[J. J.]

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to. 

Actually, I don't really care, as I take you and your reports and analysis about as seriously as Dick Morris, but I'm kind of looking forward to listening to your excuses on Tuesday night.

My prediction is 205 at 1:30-1:45 PM.  It was 214 in 2008.  I expect this to drop due to registration changes.  It was around 170 in 2004.  If it is below 160, Obama might have a problem.  

I expect Obama to carry PA.  

[J. J.]

Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 

[J. J.]

Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 

What about all the other polls? You can't just take PPP and subtract a certain amount and declare that the final correct margin.

Well, actually, you probably think that is how it works...

I do understand that, but I treat is as a rule of thumb.  I am saying that there is this house effect.  We'll see if Obama wins Ohio by 4.