OH: Public Policy Polling: Obama with a huge lead over McCain

[CARLHAYDEN]

New Poll: Ohio President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-06-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

*Note: This says it was taken May 17-18, but I think that was a type-o, I am emailing them asking if it was.

*Edit* They just e-mailed me back saying it was a type-o and they did it June 14-15. I added the right date.

First, this is not a very accurate polling firm.

Second, I do believe Obama will carry Ohio in November.

Third, expect the Margin of Victory there to be on the order of five per cent.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL,

PPP is not an accurate polling firm based on what?

PPP didn't poll in the 2004 Presidential.  In the 2008 Primary, they stumbled toward the end (especially with Pennsylvania) but they still beat Strategic Vision, who was very good in 2004.  I don't think we should reject pollsters based on primary results.  I think PPP is untested and results like this make me skeptical, but it is too early to say that this is "not a very accurate polling firm."

First, the composition (demographics of the base were just plain wierd).

Second, when Tom was called on it, he defended it on the basis that its only slightly greater a spread (party id) that Survey USA!

Third, if you consider SUSA to be accurate, I suggest you review the posts of Vorlon and myself of their record.

Fourth, if you check state polls (outside of North Carolina, where PPC is competent), you will see they generally track well to the left of the field.  They had some really weird polls in California last year.