OH: Public Policy Polling: Obama with a huge lead over McCain

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Ohio President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-06-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

*Note: This says it was taken May 17-18, but I think that was a type-o, I am emailing them asking if it was.

*Edit* They just e-mailed me back saying it was a type-o and they did it June 14-15. I added the right date.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think this is about right, SUSA last poll in OH, had him up by 9% so he just moved up 2%. Also I do believe that most of the undecideds will go to McCain, but Obama is at 50% so it doesn't matter if he get all the undecidees he won't win, according to this poll.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The party IDs in the poll are 55% Democrat, 30% Republican, 15% Independent, while in 2004 they were 35% Democrat, 40% Republican, 25% Independent. 

I know there was some party switching in the past 4 years, but that seems a bit excessive. 

See the thing is that is how the people answered. They polled 773 random people in OH and that was one of the question they asked and that is how they answered. We don't know if they are really Democrats or just saying that is the party the feel they are closer to .

[Josh/Devilman88]

PPP are a Democratic pollster. Useful for the primaries, dubious for the GE. Not that they aren't right, but take it with multiple grains of salt.

They have polled NC very well in the GE.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well McCain is screwed if 55% of Ohioans are Democrats. Joke poll. Thanks PPP!

Duke you say all the poll that show Obama ahead like this in the "swing state" are jokes.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Its the summer time, polls will be kinda off.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well McCain is screwed if 55% of Ohioans are Democrats. Joke poll. Thanks PPP!

Duke you say all the poll that show Obama ahead like this in the "swing state" are jokes.

Where? This is a joke poll if 55% of the voters are Dems. I dont care what the margin is. If the registration is 55/30/15, then Ohio is solid Democrat.

In 2006 the exit polling showed Ohio close to that. The fact is, in today's time not to many people like to be called Republicans. I don't know the number according to Ohio's Board of Elections, but I bet it is something similar to that.

[Josh/Devilman88]

LOL

Josh buddy, in 2006 it was 40% Dem/37% GOP/23% independent. Hardly close to this poll.

Ok, now add on the national shift of toward the Democratic Party, which is close to 10%.

Also I do people alot of the bump is dude to Republcains not liking how the Republican party is being run, and the Indys switching to Democrats.

[Josh/Devilman88]

CARL,

PPP is not an accurate polling firm based on what?

PPP didn't poll in the 2004 Presidential.  In the 2008 Primary, they stumbled toward the end (especially with Pennsylvania) but they still beat Strategic Vision, who was very good in 2004.  I don't think we should reject pollsters based on primary results.  I think PPP is untested and results like this make me skeptical, but it is too early to say that this is "not a very accurate polling firm."

That is what I was trying to say, but no one listens or care what I say.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The internals of this poll are pretty messed up. Obama only leads by 1% among 18-29 year olds but leads by double digits in the next age bracket? Makes no sense.

Obama might lead by only 1% among youth in Idaho.  If you take out Sun Valley.

I agree with Scoonie.

I think that is due to summer time and most younger people aren't home, they are off enjoying the summer else where.

[Josh/Devilman88]

CARL,

PPP is not an accurate polling firm based on what?

PPP didn't poll in the 2004 Presidential.  In the 2008 Primary, they stumbled toward the end (especially with Pennsylvania) but they still beat Strategic Vision, who was very good in 2004.  I don't think we should reject pollsters based on primary results.  I think PPP is untested and results like this make me skeptical, but it is too early to say that this is "not a very accurate polling firm."

First, the composition (demographics of the base were just plain wierd).

Second, when Tom was called on it, he defended it on the basis that its only slightly greater a spread (party id) that Survey USA!

Third, if you consider SUSA to be accurate, I suggest you review the posts of Vorlon and myself of their record.

Fourth, if you check state polls (outside of North Carolina, where PPC is competent), you will see they generally track well to the left of the field.  They had some really weird polls in California last year.

They never polled California before.