Is Employment Division v. Smith in jeopardy?

[Skill and Chance]

I bet the farm that Fulton v. Philadelphia will be a broad ruling where Employment Division v. Smith is formally overruled. I predict a maximalist 5-1-3 decision written by Alito. I think Roberts will be the lone justice who sides with Catholic Social Services, but doesn't vote to overturn Employment Division v. Smith.

CSS urges us to overrule Smith, and the concurrences in the judgment argue in favor of doing so. But we need not revisit that decision here. This case falls outside Smith because the City has burdened the religious exercise of CSS through policies that do not meet the requirement of being neutral and generally applicable.

Unanimous decision written by Roberts (and 6-3 to not overrule Smith). I would like to collect your farm.

Alito probably originally had the decision, but the liberals switched their votes.

You always assume SCOTUS behaves just like an ideologically polarized legislature, when the reality is far more complicated.