20 candidates have filed to run in SC-1 special election

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

16 Republicans, 3 Democrats, and 2 Greens had filed by the end of filing at noon Monday. 1 of the Democrats later withdrew

The Republicans in the order they filed:

1. Elizabeth Moffly, Noon, 1/18/13
2. Teddy Turner, 1:13 PM 1/18/13
3. Rep. Andy Patrick, 11:36 AM 1/22/13
4. Curtis Bostic, 9:20 AM 1/23/13
5. ex-Sen. John Kuhn, 11:46 AM 1/23/13
6. ex-Dorchester Sheriff Ray Nash, 2:34 PM 1/23/13
7. Rep. Chip Limehouse, 4:32 PM 1/23/13
8. Jeff King, 11:08 AM 1/24/13
9. Keith Blandford, 12:28 PM 1/24/13
10. Rep. Peter McCoy, 12:38 PM 1/24/13
11. Sen. Larry Grooms, 1:53 PM 1/24/13
12. Tim Larkin, 2:15 PM 1/24/13
13. ex-Gov. Mark Sanford, 3:35 PM 1/24/13
14. Jonathan Hoffman, 4:18 PM 1/25/13
15. Ric Bryant, 10:25 AM 1/28/13
16. Shawn Pinkston, 10:36 AM 1/28/13

Moffly is on the Charleston County school board and ran for the nomination for State Superintendent of Education in 2010. She made the runoff but lost to the Mack Zais.  I voted for her in both the primary and the runoff, but I'm not certain that if I lived in the 1st District I'd vote for her.  However, she has lent her campaign $200,000 to get it started, so she certainly has to be accounted as a serious candidate.

Teddy Turner is likely to be well-funded as well since Robert Edward Turner IV is the son of the Ted Turner, Robert Edward Turner III, tho obvious not by Jane Fonda.  It's also obvious that his politics are not the same as his dad's.

Curtis Bostic is a former Charleston County councilman and a trial lawyer.  I doubt he has a chance, tho he is a friend of Tim Scott.

Jeff King is an engineer who is a political unknown, who will likely be just as unknown after the primary is over.

Keith Blandford was the Libertarian Party candidate for the seat in 2010 and 2012.  If the Libertarian Party waits, it could run a fusion campaign if Blandford won the primary, except he won't win the primary.

Tim Larkin is an information systems security engineer working for a Department of Defense contractor in North Charleston. He is a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, currently serves in the S.C. Army National Guard. He will not be the Republican nominee in this special election.

Johnathon Hoffman was formerly a mid-level DHS bureaucrat and currently an instructor at the Citadel with delusions of winning this primary.

Ric Bryant is another nobody.  He's an 50-something engineer and long-distance runner.  Unfortunately for him, this run isn't long enough for him to beat out his opponents.

Shawn Pinkston is am associate attorney in a local law firm who likely is running to increase name recognition before starting his own law firm.

The three Democrats in no particular order:
Elizabeth Colbert-Busch
Ben Frasier
Martin Skelly

Colbert-Busch is a Democratic Party activist who happens to be the sister of Stephen Colbert.

Ben Frasier is a perennial filer in Democratic primaries who never campaigns hard and is suspected of being a Republican plant to force serious Democratic candidates to shoulder the costs of having a primary campaign to run and this deplete their resources for the fall campaign.  He did actually get the nomination for the 1st district race in 2010 where he was soundly trounced by Tim Scott.

Skelly is a businessman specializing in foreign investments who has withdrawn.

The Greens had two people file and they'll be holding a special convention on the 9th to choose.

Larry Carter Center is an activist who has a Wikipedia user page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Larry_Carter_Center
The page mentions he escorts women past abortion protesters, but he did more than that not long ago.  He hit one of those protesters with a car and is facing charges

Eugene Platt is the one who will get the nomination tho.  The Green Party website is not exactly neutral, and with good reason.  Not only is Center not a good candidate, Platt is the only Green Party member in the state who holds an elected office, albeit a nonpartisan one.  Platt was the Democratic nominee for this seat back in 1990 and has run for the State House several times since then under the Democratic, Green, and Working Families banners.

Personally I hope Turner and Colbert-Busch get their parties' respective nominations so that there can be a debate on nationwide cable jointly sponsored by CNN and the Comedy Channel.

[Indy Texas]

I've always found it odd when trial lawyers run as Republicans. Mel Martinez, the former Florida senator, is one of the strangest examples of when it actually works.

[Talleyrand]

I've always found it odd when trial lawyers run as Republicans. Mel Martinez, the former Florida senator, is one of the strangest examples of when it actually works.

Peter Roskam is also a trial lawyer. He used to be pretty high up on the House Republican Leadership Ladder.

[Maxwell]

Does Sanford actually have a chance? That's shocking.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does Sanford actually have a chance? That's shocking.

He has money left over from prior campaigns and he has name recognition.  Jenny Sanford didn't enter the campaign to bash him, and he's been engaged to Maria for almost half a year now.  Also, before he was Governor, he was the Representative for the 1st District.  The conventional wisdom, which I largely agree with this time, is that he'll come in first in the primary, only to lose the runoff to whoever does get the nomination.  That would fit the pattern of Gov. Beasley's run for the Senate in 2004, and Lt. Gov. Bauer's run for the 7th Congressional District this last time.  Both were politicians who had significant name recognition but had pissed off significant segments of the electorate.

That said, if he ends up facing Moffly or Turner in the runoff, he might be able to pull it off, especially Turner.  Ted IV might not be of the same politics as Ted III, but I would be surprised if there weren't some photos of Teddy with various liberal personages his father hung around that could be used to good effect for a smear campaign in quick and dirty two week runoff election.

Sanford could also win if the Libertarians crash the Republican primary to vote for Blandford.  With such a crowded field it is entirely possible whoever comes in second in the primary will get less than 10% of the primary vote. I'd be shocked if the #2 gets more than 20%.  Blandford did twice as well as Johnson did in the district and I've heard he was a Ron Paul supporter, so he might get their support, which could be enough to get him into the runoff under the circumstances.

[Indy Texas]

I just realized that Martin Skelly, one of the Democrats, is the brother of Michael Skelly, who was the Democratic nominee for Texas's 7th district against John Culberson in 2008.

http://goosecreek.patch.com/articles/businessman-martin-skelly-enters-congressional-race

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am deciding between Sanford and Peter McCoy, since he's my state senator. Otherwise, I will probably vote for Colbert. I know Chip Limehouse, but I doubt I could, in good conscious, vote to send him to Washington.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I am deciding between Sanford and Peter McCoy, since he's my state senator. Otherwise, I will probably vote for Colbert. I know Chip Limehouse, but I doubt I could, in good conscious, vote to send him to Washington.

So you could vote for Chip if you were asleep but not if you were awake?   The word you probably wanted was conscience, but it seems you filled the stereotype of Republicans having a problem with "science".

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Anyway, set your alarm clocks folks.  The TODAY show will be interviewing Sanford tomorrow morning.  I have no idea which segment it will be, but it will likely be the first hour of the show since that's when they tend to put the harder news items, but it could be the second.

[krazen1211]

Grooms is the treacherous fiend who tried to pass an improper redistricting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Grooms is the treacherous fiend who tried to pass an improper redistricting.

I don't recall there having been much controversy over redistricting this past time.  The General Assembly has been in solid GOP control for well over a decade, so there was never much doubt about how it would go, or what the resulting partisan balance would be.  The only significant question was whether the Pee Dee would be part of the 7th along with Myrtle Beach or if it would be part of the 5th in a district strung out from the Rock Hill area, and those debates were largely about geographic influence, not ideological influence.

[krazen1211]

Grooms is the treacherous fiend who tried to pass an improper redistricting.

I don't recall there having been much controversy over redistricting this past time.  The General Assembly has been in solid GOP control for well over a decade, so there was never much doubt about how it would go, or what the resulting partisan balance would be.  The only significant question was whether the Pee Dee would be part of the 7th along with Myrtle Beach or if it would be part of the 5th in a district strung out from the Rock Hill area, and those debates were largely about geographic influence, not ideological influence.

There was some. Initially, Grooms and the Democrats came up with a rogue redistricting plan that placed the new district where you stated, so that Grooms could run in it. In that plan the weakest district (outside of SC-06) was about 3 pts weaker than the weakest district in the enacted map.

The eventual compromise stuffed more of Grooms's senate district into SC-01.

As it is, Grooms has collected endorsements from Mulvaney, Duncan, and Gowdy to follow.

[Nhoj]

So is the CFG going to get involved here? Or will they stay out because they also like sanford.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So is the CFG going to get involved here? Or will they stay out because they also like sanford.

With there being no obvious second person to make the primary, I think the Club for Growth and most other outside groups will stay out until the GOP runoff.  If they do anything sooner, it'll likely be to attack Colbert-Busch during her own primary on the Democratic side.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am deciding between Sanford and Peter McCoy, since he's my state senator. Otherwise, I will probably vote for Colbert. I know Chip Limehouse, but I doubt I could, in good conscious, vote to send him to Washington.

So you could vote for Chip if you were asleep but not if you were awake?   The word you probably wanted was conscience, but it seems you filled the stereotype of Republicans having a problem with "science".

My iPad autocorrects... yes, I was meaning to type that word.

Any idea what the polls look like here? I am getting a lot of calls from Kuhn and some others telling me how they are big Bible believers and then asking me, knowing that, would I vote for them. I get those calls almost every day.

I think I am still going to vote for Sanford in this race. If he doesn't win, I'll support Colbert. Stephen and I are alums of Porter-Gaud.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No idea about the polling.  The Columbia-based media I follow have occasional articles but nothing in depth.  I did see one article that suggested Sanford has a good chance of making his comeback, but gave no data to back up their assertion.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated the initial post and the thread title to reflect that two Greens filed to run, so they'll be holding a convention on the 9th, and that one Democrat has withdrawn, so there's no chance of a Democratic runoff now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As expected, Eugene Platt received the endorsement at the Green Party convention last weekend.  The primary is Tuesday and on Thursday the Working Families Party will hold their convention and likely choose either Colbert-Busch or Platt.  (South Carolina allows fusion voting, and the WFP often chooses a fusion candidate, but because of our sore loser law, they have to be careful to not pick someone who seeks and then loses the nomination of another party, which is likely why they are holding their convention after the primary day.)

[RogueBeaver]

Politico has an article saying that Turner and Limehouse have shots at a runoff berth, but Turner has some personal baggage of his own. Not just bloodline stuff either.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/teddy-turner-under-fire-in-fight-for-vie-for-spot-behind-sanford-south-carolina-88961.html?hp=t1

[Zioneer]

If he won the nomination, would Turner be a stronger candidate than Sanford?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If he won the nomination, would Turner be a stronger candidate than Sanford?

I don't know.  However, I want Turner to win to set up a jointly sponsored CNN/Comedy Central debate between Turner and Colbert-Busch.