Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes neither party will resemble today's parties after 2028/2032. The only question is will the GOP be proactive in making changes or will it have to be forced on to them after 8-12 years in the political wilderness. I hope its the former and not the latter

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

[OSR stands with Israel]

More Republican than now obviously, but it won't be anywhere near the extent that the "you get more right-wing as you age" people seem to think (Fun fact: Obama won the 85+ vote in 2012, because those people were the Democratic GIs).

Eisenhower both times  , Nixon in 72 and Reagan both times I believe won the GI vote

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).

If they lose to Trump whoever is the loser put that wing of the party at a disadvantage in 2024. Anyway I think if Dems lose in 2020,the 46th President will be Gretchen Whitmer

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).

If they lose to Trump whoever is the loser put that wing of the party at a disadvantage in 2024. Anyway I think if Dems lose in 2020,the 46th President will be Gretchen Whitmer

Does Gretchen want it? Is she just a good administrator or is she a capable leader as well?

No idea, just saying it as she would then be a two term governor of a battleground state and she seems pretty popular among all wins of the party

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide.  


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).

If they lose to Trump whoever is the loser put that wing of the party at a disadvantage in 2024. Anyway I think if Dems lose in 2020,the 46th President will be Gretchen Whitmer

Does Gretchen want it? Is she just a good administrator or is she a capable leader as well?

No idea, just saying it as she would then be a two term governor of a battleground state and she seems pretty popular among all wins of the party

President Vilsack says hello?

Michigan is much bigger than Iowa and there is no establishment candidate equal to Hillary in 2024.  The 2024 field will mainly come from winners from 2018 and Dems didnt have that many in the Senate and from the Gubernatorial winners Whitmer, Newsom and Polis seem to be the only ones who can go National.