Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[Edgeofnight]

February 12th, 2019

President Biden: "I will not seek re-election in 2020"


More Soon

Author's note: The only images that are my own are my maps and infoboxes. Any images of particular candidates are not mine, and the image belongs to their respective owners.

[Edgeofnight]

Part One: Warren vs Pence, the early front runners.

February 19th, 2019



One week since President Biden’s bombshell announcement, Vice President Elizabeth Warren has declared her presidential bid. With her entry, Warren captures the title of front runner for the Democrats, leading the national polling with 28% of likely voters. Currently, she is the sole Democrat in the race, but the field is widely expected to expand.

On the Republican side, Senator Mike Pence remains the early Republican frontrunner. The party’s 2016 Vice Presidential nominee, the Governor-turned-Senator leads the Republican Party in early polling. However, having recently taken office in the United States Senate, it seems unlikely that Pence will enter the race. He polls at 15% of likely Republican voters across the nation. Currently, two Republicans are running, Senator Ted Cruz and former Alabama judge Roy Moore.

During the 2016 Presidential election, Warren and Pence where their respective party's Vice Presidential Nominees. Pence was widely viewed as the winner of the sole Vice Presidential debate. In a hypothetical 2020 matchup, Senator Pence leads by 2 points over the Vice President.




Hypothetical Polling

Democratic Presidential Primaries

Vice President Warren -- 28%
Senator Bernie Sanders --  20%
Senator Kamala Harris -- 18%
Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton -- 12%
Senator Cory Booker -- 8%
Governor Andrew Cuomo -- 8%
Senator Jason Kander -- 2%
Senator Russ Feingold -- 2%
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 1%
Fmr. Congressman Seth Moulton -- 1%
Fmr. Governor Jerry Brown -- 1%

Republican Presidential Primaries

Senator Pence -- 15%
Senator Ted Cruz -- 12%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 12%
Senator Ben Sasse -- 10%
Speaker Paul Ryan -- 10%
Donald Trump -- 9%
Senator Marco Rubio -- 8%
Senator Tom Cotton -- 7%
Governor Charlie Baker -- 5%
Governor Matt Bevin -- 5%
Senator Rand Paul -- 4%
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 3%
Congressman Justin Amash -- 2%



Unlike my other timelines, there will be a schedule for this timeline. Monday and Wednesday will have parts that are set in 2019 and the future. Friday Parts will be set in the gap between 2015, the point of divergence, and 2019, covering things such as the 2016 Primaries, the Biden Administration, midterms, Supreme Courts nominations, etc.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Two: Crowded fields suggest divided parties

Later in the month, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared his presidential bid. The two term governor of New York was recently elected to a third term, and maintains high approval ratings at home, although he has little name recognition outside of his home state.

April came with an explosion of Presidential candidates. Senator Cory Booker and Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley both declared their presidential bids on the same day. The New Jersey senator was widely seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, while the former South Carolina Governor was criticized by Bevin as “the darling of the establishment.”

In the second week of April, two more rising democrats would declare their own presidential bids. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Kamala Harris would both enter the presidential fray. Both coming from two Strongly Democratic States, both drew comparisons to Fmr. Secretary Clinton, who had ruled herself out of the race months prior.

Former Florida Governor Rick Scott would enter the race next, running on a record of eight years of governing as a “principled conservative” and recovery from Hurricane Irma. He would be joined shortly by Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. The Wisconsin governor claimed that he withdrew prematurely from the 2016 contest, and when asked, said he could have defeated Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

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In the final week of April, three more candidates declared their candidacies. First, Former Ohio Governor John Kasich. Since his 2016 loss, John Kasich had been around the country preaching his message of unity and his view of “true conservatism.” The next day, New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio would declare his own presidential bid, seemingly undeterred by the presence of more “prominent” New Yorkers. Finally, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum would launch a third presidential bid.

The first week of May would not be defined by the number of candidates, rather the candidates themselves. Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s 2016 nominee, declared his third presidential bid. A platform almost identical to his 2016 platform, Trump promised to “fight harder and win bigger.”

Trump would not be the only democrat to enter the race in May. Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker entered the race on a platform of common sense and working together.  Democratic New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan would enter the race next, running on a platform of liberal credentials and experience.

The end of May would bring in three more rising stars from both parties. First,  Missouri Senator Jason Kander. At 39 years old, he would be the youngest president ever to hold office, and his liberal record and military background propelled him to national prominence. Fellow Senator Ben Sasse would declare shortly after him. Strongly Anti-Trump, and strongly Conservative, the first term Nebraska Senator styled himself as the chief critic to the Biden administration. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro would also announce a presidential bid in his native San Antonio, claiming to be the candidate for a new Generation of Americans. Old favorite Martin O’Malley, having previously served as Secretary of Homeland Security in the Biden Administration, the former Maryland Governor and Baltimore Mayor was also a candidate in the 2016 Presidential election.

With June, two new Republicans entered the race. Early in the month, Senator Marco Rubio announced his second presidential bid, once again putting the senator into national spotlight. Texas Governor Greg Abbott would launch his first national campaign, with a high approval rating in the largest Republican stronghold, Abbott seemed like an obvious candidate.  The second to last democrat to enter the race came from the Aloha state. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard made national headlines in 2016 by becoming the first and only prominent democrat to endorse Senator Bernie Sander’s short lived presidential campaign.

In July, the final serious presidential candidates would launch their bids. First, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas chose to announce his third presidential bid on the Fourth of July. The second week of the month, Carly Fiorina and Congressman Steve King would both declare bids for the Republican nomination. The final Republican and final Democrat would both declare on the same day. Former Governors Rick Snyder and John Hickenlooper would both announce their bids for president on July 29th, 2019. And with that, the presidential fields would be set. 13 Democrats and 18 Republicans in the largest presidential field in history.

[Edgeofnight]

Special: Early Preparations





November 5th, 2014, was not a good night to be a Democrat, especially one in the Obama administration.  Republicans had surged to power, retaking the senate for the first time in almost a decade, and growing their house majority to the largest it had been since 1928.  While the public was still processing the results of 2014, the big names in the Democratic Party were already preparing for 2016. Shadow campaigns were already being ran by a number of candidates, but all eyes were on two people: Vice President Biden and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The two biggest names in the Democratic Party, both exploring runs for president. But for the two, exploring had radically different meanings. While both Clinton and Biden had been fundraising, Clinton had an already established grassroots network, and had hired much of the Democratic talent. But the issue was even more fundamental. Despite being the President’s right hand man, Biden was far less connected within the party than Hillary. She had been building alliances on a national level since her time as First Lady.

Though Biden’s inner circle was undeterred. Behind the scenes, Steve Ricchetti, a former Clinton staffer and the Chief of Staff to Vice President Biden, and Ted Kaufman, and long time Biden aid and personal friend, were already forming a campaign infrastructure and strategy. They weren't the only ones involved on the Biden 2016 campaign. Ron Klain, Tom and Mike Donilon, Shailagh Murray, and Valerie Biden-Owens made up the top level of the Biden campaign.

The strategy was also forming. Biden needed to win Iowa. Without it, the nomination would be out of reach. The Biden campaign believed that if they could win 3 out of 4 of the first primaries, they could lock up the nomination early. But, the general consensus was that if they didn’t win at least Iowa, the campaign would be dead on arrival.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Three: Republicans spar in the first debate.


The stage was St. Louis, Missouri. Site of the 2020 RNC. 17 of the 18 Republicans qualified, two debates. The “undercard” debate featured the bottom 9 candidates, while the “main event” featured the top 8. The placements were determined by average polling standing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nationally.

The 9 invited to the undercard debate where, from lowest position to highest position; Rick Snyder, Steve King, Rick Santorum,  Mike Huckabee, Rick Scott, Charlie Baker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul and Nikki Haley. Paul and Scott refused to attend anything but the main stage debate. Their requests were denied. 

The chief issues of the debate were healthcare, Conservative Values, leadership, experience, and foreign policy.  When asked if the candidates would support a full repeal of Obamacare, the responses ranged from an enthusiastic “yes” to a flat “no.” All candidates agreed that Obamacare was broken, but none really presented a solution. Baker, the most moderate candidate on the stage, called for a repeal of the individual and a change to the business mandates, and cited the state of Massachusetts success as an example of a health care working correctly. His position, of a “soft” repeal, came out as the most controversial position of the healthcare debate, and set the stage for the rest of the night. Baker, the moderate, technocratic governor of a deep blue state, was an easy target for the rest of the stage. Still, Baker kept composure, and the constant attacks afforded him multiple replies and kept him in the spotlight most of the night. These two factors led many voters to christen Baker as the winner of the night. Other notable performances came from former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and Carly Fiorina. All three would experience bumps in the polls following the debate. The worst performance of the night came from Rick Santorum. Voters polled after the event used the words “unfocused and unprepared” to describe Rick Santorum. Comedian Stephen Colbert described it as “inane rambling.”

The main event went differently. The eight invited, in order of lowest position to highest position, where Matt Bevin, Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz.

The focus of the debate was meant to be healthcare, leadership, general election viability, and foreign policy. However, much of the debate was derailed by character attacks from Trump and Bevin, lobbed at almost every other candidate on stage. Kasich was attacked by Trump over his refusal to endorse him in 2016. Bevin attacked Cruz over the “vote your conscious” line at the RNC. Kasich fired back, calling Trump and Bevin “children” and said “A country where Donald Trump is President is not one I want to live in. Period.” Cruz fired back, saying that Bevin and Trump were trying to distract from the real issues. Even Sasse and Rubio joined in, with the former saying Bevin and Trump didn’t have the maturity to lead.  The ones who stayed out of the character attacks where Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Though that helped their favorability, it meant they didn’t get a lot of attention during the debate.  Most polls after the debate had Kasich, Sasse, and Rubio as the winners. Cruz and Bevin’s performances were rated poorly, while Trump, Abbott, and Walker were rated as neutral.

Following the debates, Trump responded on Twitter

Between the first and second debates, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Roy Moore, Steve King, Rick Scott, and Rick Snyder would suspend their campaigns. Santorum, Moore, and King endorsed Trump, while Scott endorsed Rubio, and Snyder endorsed Kasich.


Republican Party Polling: National, August 2019 (post Debate)

Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 14%
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 12%
Mr. Donald Trump -- 10%
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 9%
Gov. Greg Abbott -- 8%
Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 6%
Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 5%
Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 4%
Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
Others/Undecided -- 9%

[Edgeofnight]

This will be the largest primary field of the timeline, so luckily we won't have quite the clown car in the future.

Wow, these fields. Go Kander!

Seems like Kander is the most popular candidate in the field. Interesting...

[Edgeofnight]

Part Four: Democrats do it differently.

Des Moines, Iowa. The first Democratic debates. Two weeks following the Republican debate. Democrats did their debates differently. Rather than tier by polling, debates were randomized, with the field split in half.  The first debate, held August 13th, featured Kamala Harris, Andrew Cuomo, Seth Moulton, John Hickenlooper, Elizabeth Warren, Martin O’Malley, and Cory Booker.  The second debate, held August 20th, featured Julian Castro, Jason Kander, Tulsi Gabbard,  Bill De Blasio, Maggie Hassan, and Kirsten Gillibrand.


Both debates ran for two hours. The issues of the debate where healthcare, military spending, infrastructure spending, climate change, gun control, Russia, Terror Abroad, and the Resurgence of ISIS.

For the first debate. the biggest clash came over health care. What would each candidate fix about healthcare? Warren, Moulton, and Hickenlooper clashed over single-payer. Warren, a fierce advocate for socialized healthcare and “Medicare-for-all” was met with resistance from the former Congressman and Governor. She found an unlikely ally in the New Jersey Senator, who also voiced his support for single-payer healthcare, despite his ties to the pharmaceutical industry. Senator Kamala Harris also voiced her support for single payer, although she also expressed support for a public option. Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley and Hickenlooper called, broadly, for a “stabilization” of Medicare and Medicaid before talks of adopting an expanded healthcare system. Cuomo tried to paint Warren’s proposal as “nothing more than higher taxes and longer wait times for medicine people desperately need.” The New York Governor did say that he would support single payer if it could be done in a tax neutral way.

Cuomo’s position came across as flip-floppy. He had, when running for reelection in 2018, expressed support for a single payer system. When attacked on this, Cuomo tried to justify it saying that New York State had a more efficient and balanced economy than the nation as a whole, and that what works for New York won’t work for the entire nation. But the position was characterized as “Republican-lite,”  and the Governor’s overall performance was characterized as “robotic” and “uninspiring”, contrasted with the passion of Warren and Harris, and the charisma of Booker, made Cuomo the night's big loser. He was joined in the losers club by Seth Moulton, who spoke the least and felt out of place in the debate between top tier candidates. Also in the loser’s club was John Hickenlooper, who, after engaging Warren on healthcare, mostly kept quiet the rest of the night. He traded barbs with Harris over the issue of experience, and Booker over foreign policy, but ultimately went unnoticed throughout the rest of the night. The last member of the losers club was Martin O’Malley. His performance was bland and uninspiring. His main message was that he was the most ready candidate for the office, citing his two terms as governor and his tenure at the Department of Homeland Security. This message didn’t resonate well with voters, and most of O’Malley’s policy statements came across as vague or uninformed. The biggest winner of the night was Cory Booker. The rising star had more charisma than all of his opponents, and this helped him capture the attention of voters across America. The runner up of the night was fellow Senator Kamala Harris. While she lacked Booker’s charisma, voters rated her as the most “genuine” of the candidates on stage. In the middle was the Vice President, who was overshined by her younger challengers.

The other Democratic debate, featuring Julian Castro, Jason Kander, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill De Blasio, Maggie Hassan, and Kirsten Gillibrand, was similarly structured.

The issue of experience dominated the night. Readiness to be president was a regularly asked question. Kander, 39 years old, was a first term senator, Tulsi Gabbard, 39, a five term congresswoman, and Julian Castro, 47, a former HUD secretary, all tried to spin their youth as a strength, but it opened them up to questions about if they were ready to handle the office of President. Maggie Hassan, a Senator and former Governor, argued that it didn’t, and played her experience off as making her uniquely qualified to hold the office. Gillibrand argued that her experience in Congress was just as, if not more valuable, than Hassan’s experience as a Governor, since it gave her a deeper understanding of “national issues and policy.” Bill De Blasio argued that his tenure overseeing America’s largest city was more “impressive” than Hassan governing a state of 1.5 million people.

Jason Kander, the liberal swing-state senator, dominated the night. The most charismatic of the candidates, Kander’s youth and military background helped his favorability among voters. Similarly impressive was Tulsi Gabbard’s performance. The controversial Hawaii congresswoman attracted attention for her enthusiastic support of Bernie Sanders, but her past policy positions, and her foreign policy positions, particularly her position on Syria, made her a target of attack on the stage. Senators Maggie Hassan and Kirsten Gillibrand walked away mostly as they had entered. The losers of the night, Julian Castro and Bill De Blasio, both lost for different reasons. While Castro provided a “youthful energy”, most respondents felt that he hadn’t adequately explained why he was experienced enough to become President. While Bill De Blasio talked about his experience running one of America’s economic hubs, that was all he brought to the table. Voters felt the New York City Mayor was not prepared to deal with the intricacies of Foreign Policy.

Trump, as is tradition, responded on Twitter, attacking his Democratic rivals.

Between the first two and the next debates, Andrew Cuomo, Bill De Blasio, and Seth Moulton suspended their campaigns. Cuomo declined to make an endorsement, while Seth Moulton endorsed Jason Kander and Bill De Blasio endorsed Kirsten Gillibrand.

[Edgeofnight]

General Election Polling: Warren, Harris, Booker, against Cruz, Kasich, Trump

Warren vs. Republicans

• Warren 44%, Cruz 45%, Undecided/Others 11%
• Warren 40%, Kasich 44%, Undecided/Others 16%
• Warren 45%, Trump 42%, Undecided/Others 13%

Booker vs. Republicans

• Booker 43%, Cruz 42%, Undecided/Others 15%
• Booker 43%, Kasich 43%, Undecided/Others 14%
• Booker 46%, Trump 40%, Undecided/Others 14%

Harris vs. Republicans

• Harris 43%, Cruz 43%, Undecided/Others 14%
• Harris 44%, Kasich 46%, Undecided/Others 10%
• Harris 45%, Trump 42%, Undecided/Others 13%

[Edgeofnight]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

[Edgeofnight]

Special: Biden declares Presidential Bid, enters primary against Clinton and Sanders

May 30th, 2015



Vice President Joe Biden declared his Presidential bid from the White House Rose Garden, announcing alongside his wife Jill that he would be entering the race to be the Democratic Nominee. The announcement comes after months of speculation. Since the 2014 midterms, the Vice President has made numerous trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, giving speeches and campaigning for local candidates. Current polling has the Vice President placing second in the Democratic Primaries, trailing secretary Clinton 38% to 30%.


This special was short, so I figured I would put it up tonight and then put on a regular part on Friday.

[Edgeofnight]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Elizabeth Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

If Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire this time is it possible he drops out of the race completely

We shall see......

[Edgeofnight]

Part Five: Preview of the 2019 Gubernatorial Elections

Kentucky

Governor and Presidential Candidate Matt Bevin is retiring. Republican Congressman Tom Massie is the leading candidate to replace the governor. He defeated Lieutenant Governor Jenean M. Hampton in the primary. He will face Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in the general election. Grimes beat back former Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic Primary. Massie leads Grimes 49% to 46%, with the narrow margin attributing to his predecessor's controversial nature. Still, President Biden and former President Obama campaigned on behalf of Grimes in the weeks prior

Rating: Tossup

Mississippi

Governor Phil Bryant is term limited, and can not seek another term in office. Republican Tate Reeves is the leading candidate to replace him. He is facing Democratic Former Governor Ray Mabus in the general election. Both where unopposed in their respective primaries.Former President Obama has been actively campaigning for Mabus ahead of the November Election. A top tier Democratic challenger has some national democrats hopeful that they can pull off an upset win, though Reeves leads polling 51 to 44%.

Rating: Lean Republican

Louisiana

Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards is seeking re-election to another term. Louisiana uses Jungle primaries, and there are five candidates running. For the Democrats, Governor Bel Edwards is challenged by former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. The Republicans running are State Attorney General Jeff Landry and U.S. Senator John Neely Kennedy.  The only independent in the race is businessman John Georges. Polling has the incumbent Governor leading the primary with 40% of the vote, followed in second by Senator Kennedy with 23%. Mayor Landrieu is in third with 18% of the vote. The possibility of two democratic candidates in the run off has many Democrats excited about the election.

Rating: Lean Democratic

[Edgeofnight]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Elizabeth Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

If Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire this time is it possible he drops out of the race completely

We shall see......

This is Trump we're talking about. I don't think he does. If he realizes it's numerially impossible to win the nomination he'd say it's rigged and run as an indy.

We shall see.....

[Edgeofnight]

Polling: Kander Surges in Iowa as Booker overtakes Warren nationwide. Cruz reclaims lead nationally as Trump overtakes Kasich in New Hampshire.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 21%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 21%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 9%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 5%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 22%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Vice President Warren -- 12%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 11%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 10%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 6%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

Nevada Democratic Caucus -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 15%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 11%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 6%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

South Carolina Democratic Primary -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 30%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 22%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Vice President Warren -- 10%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 5%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 3%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Democratic Primaries -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 15%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 11%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 6%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 15%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 9%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 5%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 4%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 1%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 0%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 21%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 19%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 15%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 8%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 6%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 4%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 1%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

South Carolina Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 32%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 16%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 11%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 8%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 2%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

Nevada Republican Caucus-- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 15%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 15%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 12%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 8%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 21%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

[Edgeofnight]

So the polling that went up just now was meant to go up after these next two parts, but since its already been up for a few hours, I'm just gonna leave it there.


Part Six: Second Republican Debate leaves Trump behind.

The second Republican Presidential Debate of 2020 was held on September in Des Moines, Iowa, on CNN. One again, the debate was tiered, splitting the bottom Six remaining candidates from the top six candidates. In the bottom six, Nikki Haley, Charlie Baker, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Matt Bevin, and Scott Walker faced off. Once again, Paul declined the invitation to debate in the undercard debate, and requested that he be placed in the top tier. Once again, his request was denied.

The main event was set to consist of Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Donald Trump, Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, and Marco Rubio. However, the day before the debate, Trump tweeted:

And with that, the most bombastic of the Republican candidates was out of the debate. Candidates took the chance to shine in the spotlight absent Trump.

The issues of the debate were described to be the “hot button” issues of the day. Gerrymandering, Voter ID laws, Health Care, Tax Reform,The resurgence of ISIS, and homegrown terrorism.

Kasich and Cruz, the leading candidates, came out on top in the debate. Kasich gave detailed answers and policy plans, but still got in jabs at Senators Cruz and Sasse. Senator Cruz sought to fill the personality void established by Trump’s exit, and attacked the other candidates on their personality traits, as well as their policy. The biggest loser of the night was Marco Rubio. Once a rising star of the party, Rubio was mostly ignored by the other candidates on stage. He tried to establish a presence on the healthcare debate, but was overshadowed by Governors Kasich and Abbott. Ben Sasse and Greg Abbott had a neutral performance, with Abbot presenting his plan for a partial repeal/ total replacement of Obamacare, but falling flat on the terrorism debate. Sasse showcased strong foreign policy credentials, but failed to give an actual answer to the question of Tax Reform.  

In the undercard debate, Governor Matt Bevin filled the role of Donald Trump. Personality attacks, attacks on immigrants, foreigners, etc. Bevin embraced both Donald Trump and the Tea Party, and his performance captured media attention for this dual role. Notable performances also came from Governor Baker and Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley. The biggest losers of the night were Scott Walker and Carly Fiorina. Fiorina's performance came across as unprepared and unready, while Walker simply went unnoticed most of the night. He was attacked the least amount of any candidate on stage, giving him comparatively less time for rebuttal and less speaking time as a whole.

Between the Second and Third set of debates, Carly Fiorina and Greg Abbott would suspend their campaigns. Both endorsed Senator Cruz, though Governor Abbott’s withdrawal came as a shock, who had a strong debate performance and had been climbing in the polls, he told his supporters that there wasn’t a path to victory for him anymore.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Seven: Kander and Booker win big in second Democratic Debates.




Once again, the Democrats split the debate in two based on random assignment. The first debate featured Maggie Hassan, Tulsi Gabbard, Martin O’Malley, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand. The second debate featured Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jason Kander, and Elizabeth Warren.

The key issues of each debate where international trade, Humanitarian aid, gun control, green energy, Welfare Spending and government spending.

In the first debate, Senators Booker and Gillibrand dominated the night. The two rising Democratic stars clashed frequently, and dominated the conversation during and after the debate. The two drew comparisons to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton respectively. Booker made gun control his pet issue, and focused on the harms of rampant gun violence, and highlighted his plan to reduce the number of firearms on the street. While Booker’s debate strategy was to focus heavily on one issue, Gillibrand highlighted a wider platform. Focusing on Green Energy and Government spending, Gillibrand also adopted a Sanders-eq position on international trade. Senator Maggie Hassan also gave a strong performance, though she was overshadowed by aforementioned candidates. Tulsi Gabbard, despite her strong performance in the first debate, failed to establish her presence on stage. When she finally got the spotlight on a question regarding Humanitarian Aid to African countries, she gave an answer related to welfare spending. When the moderators asked for clarification, she then answered the original question, ignoring her previous answer. Most voters felt that Gabbard wasn’t paying attention, and didn’t care about the debate. While O’Malley didn’t suffer quite a severe gaffe, one Washington Post columnist described the former Secretary’s performance as “sleep inducing.” He simply failed to capture the same attention as the other candidates.

In the second debate, Jason Kander benefited from another strong performance. He provided an impassioned defense of commonsense Gun Control and expanding green energy. He spoke against free trade, and talked about reforming humanitarian aid to prevent “subsidizing dictatorships.”  Fmr. Secretary Castro bounced back after his weak performance in the first debate, and detailed his plan for expanding healthcare access, while also expanding infrastructure spending to fix America's roads and increase economic efficiency. Harris, Hickenlooper and Warren’s performances were bland, and while they didn’t suffer the same type of gaffes that Gabbard, they simply didn’t attract attention that Kander and Castro did.

Between this debate and the next, fmr. Governor Hickenlooper and fmr. Secretary O’Malley suspended their campaigns. Both offered their endorsements to Vice President Warren.

[Edgeofnight]

Kander opposing free trade
Which of the dem candidates support free trade?

To put it on a spectrum, of who is the most against free trade to the most in favor of free trade;

Gabbard, Warren, Gillibrand, Kander, Hassan, Castro, Booker.

Its also worth noting that, at this point, the Democratic Base is somewhat split on the issue.

Democratic Primary Poll: Position on Free Trade
In Favor of: 45%
In opposition of: 39%
No Opinion/Neutral: 16%

When we cover the 2016 election and the Biden admin, the issue of Free Trade will become fairly galvanized in the Democratic base. So while a plurality of voters are in favor of Free trade, a large number of those opposed are strongly opposed.

[Edgeofnight]

Special: Democrats Square off in First 2016 Debate



The Democratic Party's first presidential debate ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was held on October 13, 2015, at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada.
.Analysis on the debate was largely mixed regarding who, between the top three candidates, won. Some analysts from CNN and BBC viewed Clinton as the winner, while other publications such as The Washington Post and The Chicago Tribune viewed Biden as the Winner and the Fox News Channel claimed that Sanders was the winner. Conversely, Chafee, O'Malley and Webb were all widely regarded as the losers. The three failed to be notice on a stage, and when they did, they didn’t leave a lasting impression.

The first major issue of the debate was healthcare. Sanders won big on this debate, with his single payer plan capturing the imagination of voters and catching fire among young voters. Biden seemingly changed his positions. He voiced support for single payer “if a plan came in front of him to pay for it.” Senator Clinton expressed similar positions, but added in extra caution.

The next key focus of the debate was the Supreme Court vacancy. Both Sanders and Clinton avoided committing anyone to nomination, however, Sanders did commit to finding the most progressive justice qualified. This, combined with comments made prior to the debate about Merrick Garland, led many to correctly believe Sanders would not nominate Garland. Sanders confirmed this the following day in an interview, but declined to state who he would nominate. Clinton danced around the issue. Biden however, broke with the other two candidates, and expressed strong support for Merrick Garland.

Other issues covered with less focus was college affordability, foreign policy, and electability. Biden didn’t suffer from his trademark slippery lipped nature, and came across as the most “genuine” and “likeable” among candidates. Sanders performance resonated among young voters. Clinton, in general, appeared the weakest among the three candidates.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Eight: The Democrats "Endorsement Primary"

Vice President Elizabeth Warren



Warren has captured the support of several establishment and progressive Democrats. She has easily the most endorsements of any of her Democratic Rivals. The most notable comes from Senator and former Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders, the progressive independent from Vermont. She has also received the support of Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Tina Smith (D-MN), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Russ Feingold (D-WI), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH). She has also received the support of numerous Representatives, most notably Peter Welch (D-VT) and Keith Ellison (D-MN). She also has the support of almost the entire current congressional delegation in Massachusetts (The only one withholding is Congressman Lynch). The only sitting Governor to have endorsed her is Governor Steve Bullock of Montana Rounding off her endorsements are former Secretary of State John Kerry and former Attorney General Loretta Lynch. Her progressive credentials and close ties to the Democratic establishment help her in this department. She has also recived the support of her former Presidential Rivals John Hickenlooper and Martin O’Malley

Senator Cory Booker



The rising star has captured his own slate of impressive endorsements. Civil rights leader and congressman John Lewis (D-GA) has been the most noticeable, but he has also received the home state support of Governors Phil Murphy (D-NJ) and the entire Democratic congressional delegation from New Jersey. Other notable endorsements include Senators Gary Peters (D-MI), Ron Wyden (D-OR), and Jack Reed (D-RI). A few other notable endorsements come from former Representative and current Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) and suprisngly former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

Senator Kamala Harris



Kamala Harris lacks any major endorsements from outside of her home state. However, the entire congressional delegation, and all statewide office holders, have endorsed their favorite daughter. California, being much of the Democratic power base,  gives Harris a massive fundraising springboard and a vast well of support, even if her nationwide support is lacking compared to the other candidates.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand



Much like Senator Harris, Senator Gillibrand has struggled to obtain high profile endorsements from outside her home state. Unlike Harris, she has had some sucesess. She has the endorsement of the entire New York Democratic Congressional delegation, except for two Representatives. This includes Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. Outside of her home state, the two most high profile endorsements she has obtained are Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA) and Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH).

Senator Jason Kander


.
Kander’s endorsements have been weaker. The most high profile endorsements have come from Former Presidential candidate Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Senator Jon Tester (D-MN). Also on that list is former Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Rounding out his endorsement list is Congressmen Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Greg Stanton (D-AZ), and Dave Loebsack (D-IA). He also has the backing of the Missouri Democratic congressional delegation.

Senator Maggie Hassan



While the New Hampshire Democratic party is firmly behind her, that’s basically it. She does have the support of Illinois Attorney General Pat Quinn, but beyond that she boasts no endorsements outside of the small state of New Hampshire.

Fmr. Secretary Julian Castro



The former HUD secretary boasts two major endorsements. The first comes from his brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX). The second, and stranger, comes from former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY).

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard



The Hawaii Congresswoman has no major endorsements. The most high profile endorsement, if it can be called that, is from former Ohio state Senator and Current President of Our Revolution Nina Turner (D-OH). However, the organization as a whole remains split on which candidate to back, with many supporting Gabbard and many supporting Warren.


Right now, Republican endorsements are spread much thinner, so that part will come later after the Iowa Caucus

[Edgeofnight]

Part Nine:Final Pre Iowa Mega Update
Since it has been a while, and the TL is starting to stagnate, we are gonna cover the last Four Months before Iowa in this one, long part.


For the third debate, both parties found their fields of qualified candidates to be small enough for a single stage for each. For the Republicans, former Governor Mike Huckabee was polling too low to qualify for the debate, and suspended his campaign shortly after the debate. Senator Rand Paul barely made the cut, and participated in his first debate of the 2020 presidential election. Paul’s sudden reappearance did not go unnoticed, and he quickly became one of the main punching bags of the night. Already polling low, the poor performance combined with the constant attacks from all on the stage, the Psuedo-Libertarian was universally seen as the biggest loser of the night. He would finally put his campaign out of its misery the week following the debate. The next biggest loser of the night was Governor Charlie Baker. Although his policy wonk nature makes him popular in his home state, it doesn’t translate well to primary voters in Iowa and across the nation. Combine this with the moderate governor’s unpopular stances (among Republicans) regarding abortion and climate change, and that was enough to put his campaign teetering on the edge. Still, the Governor was convinced that he could sway voters to his side, and remained in the race despite the poor performance. Baker’s polar opposite was the next biggest loser, Governor Matt Bevin. Voters could barley stomach one Trump-esq candidate, and that was a space firmly occupied by the man himself. Bevin’s attempts to out-Trump Trump didn’t go over well with voters, and the nominees prior failures only reinforced that. He would suspend his campaign in the face of low polling numbers and a lack of campaign money, and mount a write-in campaign for a second term in his Governor’s office. In terms of who won the debate, the answer was fairly mixed. The Washington Post, New York Times, and FOX News analysts agreed that the winners of the debate where Haley, Sasse, and Trump. Following his absence in the second debate, Trump struck back with a vengeance, unleashing attacks on every candidate who dared to cross him. He seemed angrier than ever, and his supporters loved it. However, his detractors became more solidified in their hatred of him. Senator Sasse made this clear. He focused his attacks on the Donald and President Biden, and varied his attacks on the two. With Trump, he focused an attack on the candidates persona, while Biden he launched an attack focused solely on the President’s record. Haley followed a similar strategy to the later. She tended to ignore the squabbling of the other candidates on stage, and focused her attacks on the sitting president. She also gained attention for being the last woman in the race, something that would boost her name recognition in the media.


For the democrats, the eight remaining candidates all attempted to score points by attacking front runner Elizabeth Warren. But many also danced around her presence on stage. To attack her, in many ways, was to attack President Biden, who remained a popular and unifying figure among Democrats. The big winners of the night where the usual group. Booker and Kander won points for their youth and charisma, Warren remained the favorite of many progressives. Gillibrand and Harris, central figures in the fight against Sexual Harassment in Washington, and their records on the issue boosted their stances among women voters, but both still trailed the Vice President, though Gillibrand particularly had been gaining. The others were ultimately just there. Castro had charisma, but with Booker and Kander already eating up most of the limelight, that alone wasn’t enough to net him points, Hassan faded into the background early on, and Gabbard simply didn’t have enough supporters to begin with. She lacked a base to run on, as progressives favored the Vice President over the Congresswoman. Ultimately, after failing to make an impression at the third debate, and in an attempt to piece her political career back together, Gabbard withdrew from the race, and ran for re-election to her house seat.  Castro, in an attempt to save grace, also withdrew, both of them backing Warren.
Both parties would hold two more debates between September, when the third debates were held, and February, when the Iowa Caucus would take place. Neither brought changes in the field of candidates, and neither had any particularly notable one liners or gaffes. Haley and Trump again won the fourth debate, while Sasse and Cruz were viewed as the winners of the fifth debate. On the democratic side, Kander and Booker continued to impress, while Warren attempted to make up lost ground.

In Kentucky, Democrat Alison Grimes pulled off a narrow, upset victory, in the three way race for Governor. Incumbent Governor Matt Bevin ran as a write in candidate, while the official Republican nominee was Congressman Tom Massie.Grimes won with a margin of 1.2%. A Recount was filed, but denied by a Kentucky judge.

[/img]

In Louisiana, Incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards faced several opponents in the State’s Jungle Primary. He prevailed in the first round with 40% of the vote, and second place was won by U.S. Senator John Neely Kennedy with 22% of the vote, beating out third place candidate Former Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who took 16% of the vote. In the second round of voting, Bel Edwards soundly defeated Kennedy by a margin of 11.6%

In Mississippi, Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves defeated former Governor Ray Mabus soundly. Mabus, being considered one of the Democrats’ top recruits, attracted national attention and support, but ultimately fell short by a margin of 15.1%

Polling: In final poll before Iowa, Cruz continues to lead narrowly in Iowa, New Hampshire Tie between Kasich, Trump, and Haley leads comfortably in South Carolina. Warren still tied with Kander in Iowa, Hassan leads narrowly in her home state, and Booker looms large in South Carolina. Nationwide, Cruz and Trump tied as Kasich slumps. Warren struggles to convince voters of her electability against charismatic challengers.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- February 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 22%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 22%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 18%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 14%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 24%
• Vice President Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 20%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 6%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

South Carolina Democratic Primary -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 32%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 25%
• Vice President Warren -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 28%
• Vice President Warren -- 25%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 16%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 13%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

Iowa Republican Caucus-- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 23%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 16%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 12%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 4%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 3%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- February 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  23%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 23%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 15%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

South Carolina Republican Primary-- February 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 35%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 12%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 7%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  5%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 15%

National Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 20%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 20%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 15%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Next Part: Iowa Democratic Caucus Results, 2016.

Also, I don't know if every election will have infoboxes and district maps, it depends on how much work they will be for the other elections.

[Edgeofnight]

Wow if Jason wins Iowa.....

Within the context of the timeline, many pundits agree that Kander winning Iowa could be a deathblow to the Warren Campaign. She is considered unlikely to win in New Hampshire (although its possible) and Nevada, while Booker and Harris are dominating the South Carolina polling.

[Edgeofnight]

SPECIAL: IOWA '16

All nationwide, and many internationally, where focused on the Hawkeye state. Polling conducted before indicated that for both parties, the caucus would be a three (wo)man race. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio battled for the soul of the Republican Party. A similar struggle was ongoing on the Democratic side. Although officially a four man race, only three candidates were considered serious contenders. Vice President Biden, Former Secretary of State Clinton, and Senator Bernie Sanders were locked in a tight three way race in Iowa.

While Republicans knew their winner at a little after 10, Democrats were still stuck in a dead heat after polls closing.

Iowa Democratic Caucus, 10PM:

Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton -- 34.03%
Vice President Joe Biden -- 33.65%
Senator Bernie Sanders -- 32.32%

In the Sanders camp, the result proved that the progressive Senator was still in the race. However, the Biden camp had focused heavily on Iowa, and while the state wasn’t called yet, the prospect of losing the Hawkeye state pu the campaign on edge, and without it, many in the Biden inner circle felt the nomination was out of reach. By 11 at night, things seemed to be turning around. And at 11:26PM, the race would finally be called

Iowa Democratic Caucus, 11:26PM:

✓ Vice President Joe Biden -- 34.92%
Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton -- 33.93%
Senator Bernie Sanders -- 31.40%

Clinton congratulated Biden at 11:35PM. She gave a brief, 6 minute speech, thanking her supporters and also congratulating Senator Sanders. Biden gave a speech shortly after, giving a standard victory speech. While many high level democrats remained neutral in public, behind closed doors, there was a consensus that following the results of Iowa, the Democrats were heading towards a long nomination process.

Each Candidate claimed victory in some way. Sanders used the results to argue that he was still in contention for the nomination, despite lacking the money or establishment connections of the other candidates. Clinton claimed “momentum”, saying that she overperformed expectations (a dubious claim at best), while Biden had the outright victory on his side. The Biden Campaign also claimed momentum, having closed a 10 point polling gap in the two weeks prior to the Iowa Caucus. Still, New Hampshire would remain a critical proving ground for all three of the candidates. The one candidate who could not claim victory was Governor O’Malley. O’Malley suspended his campaign following an abysmal performance, taking only .2% of the vote. He offered his support, what little he had, to Vice President Biden following his withdrawal.

For the candidates remaining in the race, all eyes shifted to the Granite State...

[Edgeofnight]

Part Ten: IOWA 2020

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 29.72% -- 17 Delegates
Sen. Jason Kander -- 29.50% -- 17 Delegates
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15.52% -- 9 Delegates
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 11.34% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Cory Booker -- 7.64% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6.28% -- 0 Delegates

Mr. Donald Trump -- 36.56% -- 12 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 20.32% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 18.17% -- 5 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 6.97% -- 2 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 6.53% -- 2 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6.02% - 2 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker -- 3.93% -- 1 Delegate
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 0.96% -- 0 Delegates

[center[/center]


Following the Caucuses, Governor Walker suspended his presidential campaign. Governor Walker’s withdrawal was overdue according to many. He had never polled within the top three, and he stood little chance of winning the nomination from the get go. One Washington Post analyst claimed that Governor Walker “missed his chance” in the 2016 race.

The big winner of the night was Donald Trump. Not only had he won, he had won by 16 points. He had reclaimed the frontrunner position that he had been trying to seize from the Cruz Campaign since the start of the race. Now, the nomination was his to lose. He had momentum on his side, and his supporters were more emboldend than ever before. While it might be easy to call Warren the other big winner, her win was much less impressive. She only narrowly beat back Kander, and beyond that her win simply didn’t carry the importance. Unlike Trump’s win, it didn’t propel her to the front of the pack, it simply kept her campaign afloat. The Kander campaign claimed the second place finish meant that momentum was on his side.

The biggest loser of the night was Senator Cruz. Not only did he lose, he didn’t even place second. He had underperformed Trump by 20%. His campaign was hemorrhaging support and money. Many Republican leaders and politicians, who were supporting Cruz to try and deny Trump the nomination, where now looking at the Kasich, Sasse, and even Haley Campaigns. The Rubio campaign was also now dead, but its corpse would be dragged along by the GOP for a little while longer.

[Edgeofnight]

I just finished "Promise Me, Dad." This TL is great, wish it was real life...

I'm actually reading through the book now, its why I've been writing this tl a lot lately. Anyway,

Part Eleven: Tense Times before New Hampshire


Biden: “Warren is Worrisome. Kander and Booker more likable.”



During an interview, Biden suffered another of his trademark gaffes. When answering questions about the current Democratic field, Biden spoke to each of the candidates strengths, while avoiding endorsing any particular candidate. When asked about his Vice President, Elizabeth Warren, Biden spoke about her strong credentials, and leadership as Vice President. However, as the conversation continued, Biden was asked why the Kander and Booker campaigns where gathering steam. In response,  Biden began to talk about the “electability” of Warren, and said that it was worrying how voters seemed not to like her. He also stated that voters seemed to like Kander and Booker more. The interview wrapped up shortly after, but the damage had been done to the Warren Campaign.

Candidates make final pitch to voters before Critical New Hampshire Primary.



In the final debate before the New Hampshire primary, each candidate found themselves making a pitch to voters. Not only on policy, but on their viability as candidates. In that regard, Ted Cruz and Elizabeth Warren found difficulty in convincing their respective parties of their electability. Ted Cruz was never the most popular individual, to put it kindly. So now, having the core message of his campaign undercut, and having lost the status as the chief “Never Trump” candidate, many of his supporters, especially those in Republican Leadership, began to doubt his candidacy. Senator Mike Lee, once one of Cruz’s chief supporters in the Senate, endorsed Ben Sasse following the Iowa Caucus. However, the Cruz campaign became convinced that a good debate performance could reverse the trend, and help him recapture support. That’s not how it happened however. Cruz suffered from a lackluster performance, and committed a fairly noticeable gaffe. When asked if he would support Donald Trump if he was the nominee, Cruz said plainly that “I could never support Donald Trump.” When challenged on his support of Donald Trump in 2016, Cruz claimed that he never endorsed Trump, only the Republican Party.  Needless to say, voters saw this as a weak excuse. The rest of his performance didn’t make up for this either. On the Democratic side, Warren was plagued by the same issue to plagued Hillary Clinton. Voters liked her record, and her policy positions, but as a candidate she was uncharismatic, and many felt she was unelectable. Add to these concerns the Biden gaffe that occurred just days before the New Hampshire Primary, and Warren’s campaign was stuck with a ghost it couldn’t shake. This problem was only made worse by the likability of Booker, Kander, Gillibrand, and Harris. In the end, it crushed what little (if any) momentum she had from her narrow win in Iowa, and solidified Booker’s lead in the nationwide polling.

Following the debate, Trump lashed out at his Republican Rivals on his favorite platform.



Especially John Kasich,



New Hampshire polling shows Hassan and Kasich in trouble. Harris gains on Booker in South Carolina, while Haley’s lead grows. Nationwide, Booker and Trump lead their packs, with challengers close behind.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 22%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 9%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

South Carolina Democratic Primary

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 30%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 28%
• Vice President Warren -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Democratic Primaries

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 24%
• Vice President Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 18%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  21%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 20%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

South Carolina Republican Primary

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 39%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 12%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 16%

National Republican Primary/u]

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 17%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 17%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 16%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 10%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

[Edgeofnight]

Ok so I made the 2016 infobox, then lost it due to my laptop dying. Sooo, we are gonna do the 2020 Post for New Hampshire First, the aftermath post, than the 2016 New Hampshire post.


Part Twelve: New Hampshire, 2020

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 21.04% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21.00% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Jason Kander -- 17.35%  -- 5 Delegates
Sen. Cory Booker -- 16.33% --  4 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 15.54% -- 3 Delegates
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 8.74% -- 0 Delegates

Mr. Donald Trump -- 24.87% -- 7 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 24.58% -- 7 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 23.58% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10.36% -- 3 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 8.39% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5.31% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 1.78% -- 0 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- .08% -- 0 Delegates

Following the primaries, many pundits expected Senator Hassan to withdraw her candidacy. However, in a speech to supporters, she claimed a moral victory in the primary. In her view, despite Gillibrand outspending her by 20% or more in the state, Hassan still only narrowly lost. Her spin to supporters was to use this as an example of her besting big money interests, and painted Senator Gillibrand as the wall street candidate in her concession speech. She pledged to stay in the contest, and pull ahead to win the nomination, despite polling dead last. Warren, still running from the Biden Gaffe Machine, only barely managed to get delegates from the granite state. For Gillibrand, the results propelled her into the front page of most major news outlets. Her name recognition increased exponentially, despite her narrow win. Her momentum allowed her to gain in the polls, and her status as a top tier candidate was solidified.



On the Republican side, once again, Donald Trump claimed victory. After pouring all of his money into the Granite State, Governor Baker came out the biggest loser. With no clear path forward, Charlie Baker withdraw, claiming it was unfair to the people of his state and his supporters to continue running with no path to victory. He offered no endorsement after his withdrawal. John Kasich and Donald Trump both claimed victory in some way. In Kasich’s camp, it solidified that the Ohio Governor could stand up to Trump, and reinforced Kasich’s argument that he should be the party’s “Anti-Trump” candidate. Donald Trump claimed that the results made him the presumptive nominee. Indeed, having won both the New Hampshire and Iowa contests, Trump was now solidified as the frontrunner, and had solid momentum on his side. Most other candidates weren't buying his argument, and the opposition to Trump stood firm, preparing for South Carolina and Nevada.

Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20 Pledged, 253 Unpledged, 273 Total
Sen. Cory Booker -- 4 Pledged, 193 Unpledged, 197 Total
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 0 Pledged, 185 Unpledged, 185 Total
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15 Pledged, 79 Unpledged, 94 Total
Sen. Jason Kander -- 22 Pledged, 46 Unpledged, 68 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6 Pledged, 8 Unpledged, 14 Total
Remaining -- 3,984 Pledged, 137 Unpledged, 4,212 Total


Current Delegate Totals (Republicans):
1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Mr. Donald Trump -- 19 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 9 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 3 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 0 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- 0 Delegates
Remaining -- 2,424 Delegates

Popular Vote (Democrats)*:
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 59,899 (21.04%)
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 59,785 (21.00%)
Sen. Jason Kander -- 49,394 (17.35)
Sen. Cory Booker -- 46,490 (16.33%)
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 44,240 (15.54%)
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 24,881 (8.74%)

Popular Vote (Republicans):
Mr. Donald Trump -- 159,721 (29.47%)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 98,573  (18.18%)
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 82,921 (15.30%)
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 55,170 (10.17%)
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 47,811 (8.82%)
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 47,420 (8.74%)
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 42,084 (7.76%)
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- 8,263 (1.52%)
Total -- 541,963

Author's Note: The date is wrong on both infoboxes. Didn't feel like redoing them to fix it.

Author's Note*: Democrats don't publish the popular vote totals from Iowa, thus this is based solely on New Hampshire.