US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Kevinstat]

So I suspect a third plan will be adopted: the one below. In this plan, Rogers keeps his Livingston base, with the rest of his district now in Oakland (except for a sliver of Washtenaw as a population equalizer taking up marginal political territory). The key to this plan, is to give Rogers the Dem areas of Pontiac and West Broomfield in Oakland, which he can handle, since the balance of what he has in Oakland is mostly heavily GOP, along with Livingston (CD-08 no longer has to cope with Dem Lansing and Inghram County, so he as plenty of GOP partisan pad to contain and neutralize Pontiac and environs).  

The old CD-09 is totally chopped up, and Peters has nowhere to run. (Yes, in that sense, it is convenient that Peters won in CD-09 this year, because if the Pubbie had won, then there would have been a real pushing and shoving match, as to which incumbent Pubbie gets what, and it might have been a toss up whether my first plan (which creates 3 marginal GOP seats), or this plan, were adopted.)

The last map at the bottom, shows what was the new now CD-08 looks like, with the green part in Oakland from the old CD-09 (except for GOP White Lake Township, which is from CD-11), the gray in the old CD-08 (CD-08 lost the pink area to the east, largely in Inghram County), and the green in Washtenaw (marginal partisan territory), is from the old CD-07. By CD-08 taking in Pontiac and West Broomfield, that  creates a geographic pathway for  McCotter’s CD-11 to then capture heavily populated GOP areas in Oakland of Troy and Broomfield via cutting through marginally Dem Farmington.  If  Pontiac is put in CD-05 or CD-14, a barrier is created that makes it not viable for CD-09 to take in West Broomfield, and that leaves CD-11 to cope with both Farmington and West Broomfield and drop some Dem precincts in Wayne, while trying to get at Broomfield and Troy;  that is just too much population in which to switch for CD-11. It does not work, because the 3 Dem districts in metro Detroit, the two black districts, and the Dingell district, end up with too much population.

So, in summary, I think this plan will be adopted more or less, because it makes all the GOP incumbents happy, and gives the GOP an even shot of winning what is now the 5th Dem seat in Macomb County (CD-12). We shall see what happens. I am going to send all of this data to the Michigan “redistricters.”

Is anyone else unable see the last two maps there.  This is interesting, even though it depresses me that Michigan Republicans, which seem to me to be the worst kind of Republicans (a "racist bake sale" at the University of Michigan purporting to emulate the state's affirmative action admission policies - at least the Berkeley College Republicans called it an Affirmative Action bake sale and were a little more clever about it - yeah I guess racism is what it is but don't pick on the students benefiting from that, and don't try to tell me that isn't what they're doing), will have another opportunity to gerrymander the state in their favor.  I hope the UMich College Republicans enjoy the ultra-liberal congressperson who takes over after Dingell retires.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I can't see them either...

[Torie]

I am combining my three plans into one post.

To give some definition to my terms, I consider a "safe" GOP seat, one that Bush 2004 got at least 54.5% of the two party vote, with 55% being even better, and that was my goal, not quite reached in a couple of instances (I am between 54.5% and 55%).  A 52.5-54.5% Bush 2004 seat is lean GOP, and anything less than that is really in the tilt to tossup category.  Every percentage point counts - and counts a lot - in our divided and quite closely balanced partisan environment, with relatively few swing voters. A 54.5% CD by the way is a +3% GOP PVI from Bush 2004 numbers (Bush 2004 got 51.4% of the two party vote). Pubbies have been pretty successful in holding +3% or better GOP PVI districts in the past (well outside the South, until now, where some Dem fossils held on). Sure, some are lost from time to time, but not many.

The first plan is the one that tries to cut down the Dems to holding just 4 seats.  It does this by getting rid of CD-12. The Dem parts of CD-12 in Oakland County, are given to one of the black seats, CD-14.  (All 3 plans do that in fact.) CD-09 takes in the marginally Dem CD-12 areas in Macomb of Warren Township, and its third of Sterling Heights, while CD-10 takes the marginally Dem areas in Macomb of Eastpointe, St. Clair Shores, Mt Clements, and Clinton Township, all marginally Dem, while losing much of its thumb territory. So CD-10 becomes a more marginally GOP seat, renumbered CD-12. CD-09 in Oakland becomes comfortably GOP having lost its Dem areas in Oakland, in exchange for less Dem areas in Macomb. But having CD-05 go south to take in Pontiac, creates a barrier that makes it impossible for CD-11 to get at the heavily populated GOP areas in eastern Oakland (Rochester, Troy, Bloomfield), so it struggles to find GOP territory, without a whole lot of success; so CD-11 becomes just a tad more GOP and somewhat marginal.

Meanwhile CD-08 becomes a marginal GOP seat, because it still has to take in Lansing, and while it gains some GOP territory in the East, it loses its heavily GOP territory in northern Oakland (now taken up to some extent by CD-05 so that it can link up to Pontiac.

So this plan creates 4 marginal GOP seats, CD's 01, 08, 11 and 12. And that is why this plan will not be adopted.  Rogers in CD-08, McCotter in CD-11, and Miller in now CD-10, to be renumbered CD-12, will not be very happy. Plus, one cannot beef up CD-01 much, without it looking embarrassingly erose. And given the play of geography in the next two plans, we can put MI-01 in safe GOP territory, without being so embarrassed.







So that brings us to the second plan. In this plan, CD-12 again loses its Dem areas in Oakland to CD-14, but this time is all in Macomb County, and also takes in the Gross Pointes in Wayne County. This is possible in this plan precisely because CD-12 is now otherwise all in Macomb county, with nothing in Oakland. Having CD-12 go into three counties, is probably not legal. So with the Gross Pointes in CD-12, we can make that a toss up district (rather than marginal GOP in the first plan), but in exchange, Miller (CD-10), Rogers (now all in Oakland in CD-09, with his old CD-08 now the number for Dingell’s old CD-15), and McCotter (CD-11) now all have safe districts. CD-01 becomes safe GOP as well. This plan is elegant, because it creates nice compact looking districts, and minimizes county splits, with CD-09 now all in Oakland County, and Oakland now having only 3 CD’s in it rather than 4.

The problem with this plan however, is that Livingston County is now appended to McCotter’s CD-11, so Rogers will have to move to Oakland County (where about a third of his district currently is).. Rogers will not want to move if it can be avoided.







So I suspect a third plan will be adopted: the one below. In this plan, Rogers keeps his Livingston base, with the rest of his district now in Oakland (except for a sliver of Washtenaw as a population equalizer taking up marginal political territory). The key to this plan, is to give Rogers the Dem areas of Pontiac and West Broomfield in Oakland, which he can handle, since the balance of what he has in Oakland is mostly heavily GOP, along with Livingston (CD-08 no longer has to cope with Dem Lansing and Inghram County, so he as plenty of GOP partisan pad to contain and neutralize Pontiac and environs).  

The old CD-09 is totally chopped up, and Peters has nowhere to run. (Yes, in that sense, it is convenient that Peters won in CD-09 this year, because if the Pubbie had won, then there would have been a real pushing and shoving match, as to which incumbent Pubbie gets what, and it might have been a toss up whether my first plan (which creates 3 marginal GOP seats), or this plan, were adopted.)

The last map at the bottom, shows what was the new now CD-08 looks like, with the green part in Oakland from the old CD-09 (except for GOP White Lake Township, which is from CD-11), the gray in the old CD-08 (CD-08 lost the pink area to the east, largely in Inghram County), and the green in Washtenaw (marginal partisan territory), is from the old CD-07. By CD-08 taking in Pontiac and West Broomfield, that  creates a geographic pathway for  McCotter’s CD-11 to then capture heavily populated GOP areas in Oakland of Troy and Broomfield via cutting through marginally Dem Farmington.  If  Pontiac is put in CD-05 or CD-14, a barrier is created that makes it not viable for CD-09 to take in West Broomfield, and that leaves CD-11 to cope with both Farmington and West Broomfield and drop some Dem precincts in Wayne, while trying to get at Broomfield and Troy;  that is just too much population in which to switch for CD-11. It does not work, because the 3 Dem districts in metro Detroit, the two black districts, and the Dingell district, end up with too much population.

So, in summary, I think this plan will be adopted more or less, because it makes all the GOP incumbents happy, and gives the GOP an even shot of winning what is now the 5th Dem seat in Macomb County (CD-12). We shall see what happens. I am going to send all of this data to the Michigan “redistricters.”

[Torie]

Here is a new map with the updated intra county population figures, but not the final census figures. Most of the adjustments went according to expectations, except that MI-12 had to expand more than expected, taking in more GOP territory (I guess those lower middle class to working class Anglos in Warren have been leaving town in large numbers or something).

MI-11 had a slight issue, because it had to lose all of Garden City (the only way to get to it is through Westland, and that ended up causing MI-11 to have too much population, so out went Garden City, leaving MI-11 with about 15 very carefully chosen precincts in pretty heavily Dem Westland (up from about 5 precincts) to limit the damage). MI-11 also picked up three GOP precincts in Troy from MI-08.

The partisan stats have been updated only for MI-11-, MI-12, and MI-08, which were the CD's with which I was more interested (highlighted in bold). I will probably wait for Dave Bradlee to add the partisan data to his map drawing utility for updating the rest of the CD's (they won't change much).  Enough is enough (it takes a lot of work to calculate the partisan data manually).

[Brittain33]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

[cinyc]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

The 2009  estimates for Detroit (910,921) and Wayne County (1,925,848) really stunk.  Especially Detroit.

[Bacon King]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

The 2009  estimates for Detroit (910,921) and Wayne County (1,925,848) really stunk.  Especially Detroit.

Have census estimates historically been as notoriously bad as they were this decade?

[cinyc]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

The 2009  estimates for Detroit (910,921) and Wayne County (1,925,848) really stunk.  Especially Detroit.

Have census estimates historically been as notoriously bad as they were this decade?

I don't know.  I hope someone from the press asks that question at Thursday's press conference.  Estimates for some cities were real stinkers.  It's not just Detroit.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I guess that upends all those neat plans about putting together Peters and Levin.

[Sbane]

I guess that upends all those neat plans about putting together Peters and Levin.

I don't get what you are trying to say. These numbers are worse for the Dems than previously thought.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I guess that upends all those neat plans about putting together Peters and Levin.

I don't get what you are trying to say. These numbers are worse for the Dems than previously thought.

I don't know if they are worse or better. I just made the observation that today's numbers throw the entire redistricting process into uncertainty.

[Brittain33]

I guess that upends all those neat plans about putting together Peters and Levin.

I don't get what you are trying to say. These numbers are worse for the Dems than previously thought.

It looks as if the population growth in the state is piling up in already Republican districts to the west, which is going to make it harder to sustain Republicans in the east, especially if the county line rule causes weird outcomes in the vicinity of Wayne County. When Dem districts start stretching outward to reach full population, territory McCotter needs to survive will be laid in front of them like bread crumbs for Hansel and Gretel. Drowning Pontiac in a sea of blue may not be feasible, either.

[krazen1211]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

Conyers should finally get crunched rather than Peters or Levin. More likely they just keep pushing the Detroit districts further into the suburbs.

[Brittain33]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

Conyers should finally get crunched rather than Peters or Levin. More likely they just keep pushing the Detroit districts further into the suburbs.

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

[krazen1211]

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.


That Detroit district might displace NY-16 as the new Mordor.

[Brittain33]

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000. 
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

[Verily]

The Ann Arbor seat could go to Lansing (Ingham County). The Republicans would like to get that problem off their hands.

[Verily]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

Conyers should finally get crunched rather than Peters or Levin. More likely they just keep pushing the Detroit districts further into the suburbs.

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

Well, two districts will have to contain at least part of Detroit. Detroit proper is about one district, but you have to remember Highland Park and Hamtramck are entirely contained within Detroit as well and mean at least around 30,000 Detroiters or so (probably Mexicantown) have to be in a different district.

[Torie]

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000. 
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

The Pubbies are protected by the Voting Rights Act. One can't draw two 50% VAP black CD's that way. The VRA is a wonderful thing for Pubbies, except sometimes in the case of Hispanic CD's, when it is not so good. But for blacks, it's wonderful! 

[Sbane]

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000. 
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

The Pubbies are protected by the Voting Rights Act. One can't draw two 50% VAP black CD's that way. The VRA is a wonderful thing for Pubbies, except sometimes in the case of Hispanic CD's, when it is not so good. But for blacks, it's wonderful! 

I think the question has become whether two VRA districts can be drawn in the first place. It might be possible but it will be rather tough.

[krazen1211]

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000.  
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

That post was a brainfart, so ignore it. I miscounted.

That math doesn't work because the GOP wants to salvage the good parts of Wayne County.

Actually, I see your problem now. If you can only cross Wayne > Oakland once (and that has to be McCotter), drawing the other Dem districts does become a bit problematic no matter how you slice it. Moving Monroe County out of Dingell's district and putting Ann Arbor college kids in with inner city Detroit is a nice f u possibility.


I would love to see the 98% Obama detroit pack at least floated. Michigan isn't a preclearance state and it makes sense from a community of interest perspective.

[krazen1211]

Calling Torie! We need the Michigan 4 district plan:

1. Detroit
2. Warren to Pontiac
3. Flint, Saginaw, Lansing
4. Mexicantown to Ann Arbor


Can this be done?


Edit: I started poking closer at Torie's plan.

1. I'm not sure as to the legality of the double split of the Oakland/Wayne border. I think its moot, though. Dumping all of Detroit into CD-13 solves that issue.

2. That opens up CD-14, which can cross into Macomb and grab Warren, and a couple other neighboring towns. That should push the Macomb CD up a couple points in PVI; Bush won Macomb county as a whole.

This is my concept map:

[Torie]

MI-07 poking into Wayne is an illegal county split, you lost a black CD illegally, and MI-11 the way you drew it is marginal in a partisan sense. After a lot of thought, the poke of MI-12 into Wayne to pick up the Gross Pointes does have some legal vulnerability the way I drew the CD's in the Detroit area, but then they allowed a triple split of Oakland last time in 2000 (when the law was the same) that was not necessary, and this time the only reason for the triple split of Oakland is the VRA, so that does not count as a point against the map drawers really.

In any event, the argument is that MI-12 split two counties last time (unnecessarily), and does this time (unnecessarily), and otherwise there are no more county splits except the one mandated by the VRA. That is the case for its legality. Your poke doing the same thing is no more legal or illegal than mine; just because you kept one black CD out of Oakland (illegally), does not mean that the arguably unnecessary split of MI-12 into Wayne is any more legal. The problem here is that not doing the split of MI-12 does not mean there is another county split elsewhere. If it were otherwise, than the cut out of the Gross Pointes would be clearly legal.

If my map is ruled illegal, than MI-10 just has to suck up more of the Flint area, potentially to the point of hitting the heavy Dem zone. It can take some more people in Genesee, but maybe not 40,000 more.

If the Pointes are lost to the Pubbies, MI-12 won't get much more Dem, because it will just take up heavily GOP territory to the north, but a Pubbie point or two will be lost to MI-10, making it closer to the marginal status, but still I think above the +3% GOP PVI benchmark.

[krazen1211]

Ugh, this is going to be a challenge.

I see where you are finally coming from. In order to get 2 black districts you're going to have to round up Pontiac blacks, Southfield blacks, Inkster blacks, and Detroit blacks, which total up to about 900k or so per the new data, and  you're going to use that to quad chop Wayne (and double traverse the Wayne Oakland border) rather than tri-chop.

It still seems to me like you can shove a Detroit district into Warren and grab 100k voters. Macomb population is about 802k, so it has to be split somewhere, and you might as well grab out the most Democratic voters in the south edge of the county.

One of the Pointes has a precinct in Macomb County. Poor guys don't deserve to be stuck with the Detroit districts year after year; I hate the idea of letting good Pubbies drown.

[cinyc]

One of the Pointes has a precinct in Macomb County. Poor guys don't deserve to be stuck with the Detroit districts year after year; I hate the idea of letting good Pubbies drown.

The Pointe that has a precinct in Macomb is Gross Pointe Shores.  It was two separate townships in 2000.  It incorporated as a city during the past decade.  Its population is relatively small, though - about 3,000.

Michigan has a few other cities that straddled county lines in 2000.  Are there special rules for cities that straddle county lines?  Can they be placed in either county, or do they need to be broken up?