Germany megathread

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I know many FDP members want the party to pull out, both for policy reasons as well as electoral reasons, but I really have to question the long-term thinking on this one.

Do they not think the CDU isn't watching how the FDP is behaving in the Scholz government? The FDP already proved itself an unreliable partner in Merkel's second government from 2009-2013. What party would want to trust the FDP when they now have two examples of throwing a temper tantrum every time they have bad election results?

It should be remembered that being in opposition does not guarantee their survival, either. After they voluntarily pulled out of the Jamaica negotiations in 2017 (when they could have coalitioned with a then-more powerful CDU and less powerful Greens), their polling numbers collapsed and for most of 2018-2021, they were bouncing around the 5% threshold after getting over 11% in the 2017 election. It was the lockdowns dragging on in 2021 that saved them.

They undermined a pure right-of-centre government under Merkel and still got kicked out of parliament in 2013. They pulled out of a Jamaica-coalition in 2017 and then we ended up with a CDU-SPD government, and they still started losing state elections. Now they rubber stamp 95% of an SPD-Green agenda, and then get really pissy about it, and now they want to pull out just 2 years in? The FDP negotiated themselves a bad deal back in 2021. It was not forced upon them, and they have voted through everything even if they have said that they hate it.

Now they will go into a snap election without much of their own agenda passed, but rather just about every policy accomplishment is something associated with the SPD and Greens, and they're pitch to voters will be that they are causing instability and a snap election? They got control of the powerful Finance Ministry, and now are giving up control and are not going to try to salvage the remaining 2 years.

Maybe I'm just a dumb Sozi so I don't get it, but I am seriously asking this: if you are right-of-centre voter......why vote for this party? If you want normal right-of-centre politics, just go vote CDU with Merz at the helm. If you want more radically liberal economic politics, just vote AfD, since they have progressively taken more of the FDP's space on economics over the past 5 years.


I'm of the opinion that the past two years have shown the problem with having more than two parties in government. I think there is a strong chance we get another CDU-SPD government in the event of a snap election if they get a majority together, as we have seen in many state elections. The CDU and SPD are much more consensus-oriented and could probably be convinced to work together again federally due to the crisis situation, as painful as it would be for both parties. The wildcard here, however, is BSW and whatever is going on with Die Linke.

The FDP was in government continuously from 1949 to 1998. Since then, they have been in power only in 2009 - 2013 and then 2021 to the present. If they survive a snap election, are they prepared to possibly be out of power for a long time? The SPD will now never coalition with them ever again after having the FDP stab them in the back twice. The CDU and Greens will likely be wary of relying on them, and probably won't even need them, considering how fractured the political landscape is getting.

I just don't really get what they want to do or be...

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1727771960665317873

Germany to suspend 'debt brake,' present revised 2023 budget

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner plans to present a supplementary budget next week for the current year that lifts borrowing limits after the top court wiped €60 billion from existing spending plans.

The German government plans to draw up a supplementary budget for 2023 after a Constitutional Court ruling threw spending plans into disarray, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said in Berlin on Thursday.

A decision to suspend a so-called debt brake will allow the government to significantly increase new borrowing this year. Lindner intends to present a supplementary budget for the current year next week on Wednesday, after consulting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who is also Germany's economy minister.

"There is now new legal clarity on how we have to deal with special assets and emergency loans," said Lindner. "We will now put expenditure, particularly for the electricity and gas price brakes, on a constitutionally secure footing."

The budget for 2024 will only be discussed once there is a "constitutionally secure situation" for 2023, Lindner added.


€60 billion hole in the budget

Lindner's decision follows a ruling by the Constitutional Court, which said a move to redirect €60 billion ($65 billion) of unused debt from the pandemic era to a climate fund was unconstitutional.

The court's decision has implications not only for planned climate investments but also for the financing of the energy price brake, which is intended to provide relief from high electricity and gas costs.

[...]

[President Johnson]

LOL, Scholz owned Merz in the aftermath of his Bundestag speech (which itsself was medicore in my opinion, he generally should change is communication style).

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1729480397124227533

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1729557677246677470

[kelestian]

https://www.nius.de/News/neun-maenner-vergewaltigten-15-jaehrige-nur-einer-muss-ins-gefaengnis/a44a0f33-2948-4c7f-8c8d-1d1291046794

Infuriating Court decision in Hamburg: after long gang-rape of a 15-year old girl only one of 9 rapists will go to jail (for leas than 3 years). Other perpetrators (19 to 23 years old, foreign background) hot no prison time at all.

[Estrella]

Out of Germany, always something new.

Russia allegedly intercepted NATO data during Nord Stream planning

The Russian state-owned company Gazprom has apparently attempted to obtain secret NATO data as part of the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This was the unanimous opinion of members of the state parliament from various parliamentary groups following questioning of witnesses in the committee of inquiry into the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Climate Foundation. The climate foundation was largely financed by Nord Stream 2 AG.

CDU MP Sebastian Ehlers reported that the Stralsund Mining Authority, as the licensing authority, had asked the German Armed Forces for the coordinates of the NATO submarine diving areas in the region on behalf of Nord Stream 2. René Domke, who attended the committee meeting on behalf of the FDP, confirmed this and expressed his surprise that such information should be passed on - "mind you, to a project developer based in Switzerland and owned by the Russian state-owned company Gazprom".

According to the Green parliamentary group in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, confidential military data on NATO ammunition was even temporarily published in the planning approval decision.The Green chairman of the committee of inquiry, Hannes Damm, expressed his shock at this. The actions of the mining authority towards Gazprom had "endangered the security of Germany and NATO".The testimony of the witness, a former head of division at the Federal Office of Infrastructure, Environmental Protection and Armed Forces Services, showed that "the construction of Nord Stream 2 was pushed through even in the face of serious concerns from the security authorities", said Damm.He accused the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania of accepting high security risks "just to enable Nord Stream 2 AG to obtain approval quickly".

The Climate Foundation was established at the beginning of 2021 by resolution of the state parliament in order to enable the completion of Nord Stream 2 while circumventing the threat of US sanctions, which was successful.The special committee initiated by the opposition is to clarify, among other things, the extent of the influence of the Russian donors on the then SPD/CDU state government when the foundation was established. Nord Stream 2, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned company Gazprom, was the largest donor to the Climate Protection Foundation MV with 20 million euros.

About a decade ago there was much outrage in Germany about NSA allegedly spying on the MP representing the constituency where the Nord Stream terminal was built, a certain Dr. Angela Merkel (CDU). Hm.

[President Johnson]

Budget crisis has been resolved so far. Each side had to give something, so no clear winners and losers in my opinion. After all, they knew they had to come up with something because current polling is so poor, no one wants to go through a snap election right.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1735064619863925009

After more than 200 hours of negotiations, including all-night talks, German Social Democratic (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Green Vice-Chancellor and Economics Minister Robert Habeck and Free Democrat (FDP) Finance Minister Christian Lindner have announced a new state budget for 2024.

When Germany's governing three-party coalition took power in late 2021, it repurposed €60 billion ($64 billion) in unused COVID-era loans for climate protection efforts. Yet in November, Germany's constitutional court ruled this reallocation unlawful, sparking protracted negotiations to draw up a new budget. The government does not intend to reapply for these loans.

[...]

Subsidies for the solar industry, for installing climate-neutral heating systems and purchasing electric cars will be cut too, even though they were supposed to remain in place until the end of 2024. "That pains me, but it's the price for keeping the central components, the pillars of the climate and transformation fund intact," said Economic Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens.

[...]

"We are reducing climate-damaging subsidies to the tune of €3 billion," said Finance Minister Lindner. So far, the German state paid €1.4 billion due to the EU's so-called plastic levy, yet going forward, companies that put plastic into circulation will be forced to foot the bill.

In addition, the CO2 levy for burning fuel, heating oil or gas will be raised sooner than planned. The price currently stands at €30 per ton but is set to rise to €45 in 2024, instead of €40 as previously planned. Petrol will become about 4.5 cents more expensive per liter. This is expected to grow government revenue by about €1 billion.

[...]

According to Finance Minister Lindner, an extra €1.5 billion will be saved by reducing social welfare spending. Efforts will be made, for example, to quickly integrate Ukrainian refugees into the German labor market.

[...]

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The new budget is a massive gift to the AfD and CDU, in my opinion

The FDP refuses increases in income, capital gains, and corporate income taxes, and also rejects a wealth tax or renewed suspension of the debt brake. The SPD and Greens refuse any cuts to social spending. So the solution is to massively jack up environmental taxes, which hit industry and households, and slash spending on environmental measures and any sort of modernization or debureaucratization (is that even a word?) of government.

Hard to see how this doesn't harm all parties of the incumbent government. The FDP further loses credibility in the eyes of voters and industry with the huge tax increases. The Greens take a hit from progressive voters because so many of their projects have been gutted with a chainsaw. The SPD's lower-income voters will come under further economic pressure as their energy bills jump, filling up the petrol tank becomes more expensive, and some will lose their jobs. Grocery store prices, restaurant VAT, and heating costs will rise for everybody.

Everyone gets punished as Germany's non-recession limbo of the past two years is set to become a real, visible recession from next year. I expect the CDU and AfD's polling numbers to rip soon and they'll both perform very well in the elections in June, September, and October.

So congrats to the Traffic Light parties, I guess.

[jaichind]

In Germany now the walls have ears?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Why are Germans always the bad guys in movies?

Conan Interview

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Czw8oH2Su1m/

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Why are Germans always the bad guys in movies?

Conan Interview

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Czw8oH2Su1m/

[jaichind]

In Germany, electricity supply companies announced that next year the price of electricity for consumers will increase by 32%

[rob in cal]

Wasn’t there some internal FDP petition that got enough signatures  to  trigger a party member vote on whether there should be new federal elections or FDP should pull out of the coalition?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wasn’t there some internal FDP petition that got enough signatures  to  trigger a party member vote on whether there should be new federal elections or FDP should pull out of the coalition?

Yeah, that vote was held and the results have been announced today.

52.2% voted in favour of staying in the coalition. Thus a 2024 Bundestag (early) election has been narrowly averted, so far.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In Germany, electricity supply companies announced that next year the price of electricity for consumers will increase by 32%

Thanks for letting me know, but my monthly electricity bill has actually decreased by ca. 10% with the beginning of the new year.

I'm frequenting a 100% renewables supplier though.

[oldtimer]

Wasn’t there some internal FDP petition that got enough signatures  to  trigger a party member vote on whether there should be new federal elections or FDP should pull out of the coalition?

Yeah, that vote was held and the results have been announced today.

52.2% voted in favour of staying in the coalition. Thus a 2024 Bundestag (early) election has been narrowly averted, so far.

That number seems ripe to defeat the FDP leadership the next time it is put up for a vote.

[President Johnson]

Wasn’t there some internal FDP petition that got enough signatures  to  trigger a party member vote on whether there should be new federal elections or FDP should pull out of the coalition?

Yeah, that vote was held and the results have been announced today.

52.2% voted in favour of staying in the coalition. Thus a 2024 Bundestag (early) election has been narrowly averted, so far.

Actually a pathetic result, if we're being honest. However, it was a non-binding vote and I doubt Lindner would have pulled out in a reverse scenario. At least unless the result would have been 75-25% or so.

The coalition really needs a massive turnaround this year, otherwise things are looking bleak in the years to come. Especially the Eastern Landtag elections in September with AfD leading in the polls are going to be a real test.

[oldtimer]

Wasn’t there some internal FDP petition that got enough signatures  to  trigger a party member vote on whether there should be new federal elections or FDP should pull out of the coalition?

Yeah, that vote was held and the results have been announced today.

52.2% voted in favour of staying in the coalition. Thus a 2024 Bundestag (early) election has been narrowly averted, so far.

Actually a pathetic result, if we're being honest. However, it was a non-binding vote and I doubt Lindner would have pulled out in a reverse scenario. At least unless the result would have been 75-25% or so.

The coalition really needs a massive turnaround this year, otherwise things are looking bleak in the years to come. Especially the Eastern Landtag elections in September with AfD leading in the polls are going to be a real test.

The German governments feel dead since 2016, they just play musical chairs with a shrinking vote after every election.

[MaxQue]

Wasn’t there some internal FDP petition that got enough signatures  to  trigger a party member vote on whether there should be new federal elections or FDP should pull out of the coalition?

Yeah, that vote was held and the results have been announced today.

52.2% voted in favour of staying in the coalition. Thus a 2024 Bundestag (early) election has been narrowly averted, so far.

Actually a pathetic result, if we're being honest. However, it was a non-binding vote and I doubt Lindner would have pulled out in a reverse scenario. At least unless the result would have been 75-25% or so.

The coalition really needs a massive turnaround this year, otherwise things are looking bleak in the years to come. Especially the Eastern Landtag elections in September with AfD leading in the polls are going to be a real test.

I'm sorry to tell you it won't happen, as the FDP is blocking any genuine reform.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's the FDP gonna do? They're polling at 5% (in the case of one firm at 4%) and there's already a widely shared sentiment among the left that the traffic light government caters too much to the FDP and their demands in order to complace them.

The only other time in this century when they happened to be in power at the federal level - at that time with the CDU/CSU - they fell below 5% and subsequently out of parliament after four years. Maybe there's no shame in simply accepting your fate with grace.

[President Johnson]

What's the FDP gonna do? They're polling at 5% (in the case of one firm at 4%) and there's already a widely shared sentiment among the left that the traffic light government caters too much to the FDP and their demands in order to complace them.

The only other time in this century when they happened to be in power at the federal level - at that time with the CDU/CSU - they fell below 5% and subsequently out of parliament after four years. Maybe there's no shame in simply accepting your fate with grace.

Maybe. The FDP is in somewhat of a lose-lose situation. They would have to make more concessions to SPD and Greens to look less obstructionist, though their party base already believes leadership made too many compromises. The opposite, "showing more profile" will just feed into the general narrative that the FDP is playing opposition within the government and they get blamed by the electorate as a whole as well.

[gerritcole]

The coalition seems to be dying a slow death, if not for the Bundestags very high bar for votes of no confidence, I doubt the gov would survive until the next scheduled election

[President Johnson]

The coalition seems to be dying a slow death, if not for the Bundestags very high bar for votes of no confidence, I doubt the gov would survive until the next scheduled election

A vote of no confidence can only succeed by electing a new chancellor. That was a significant change to the Weimar Republic, in which governments were often voted out with no successor, triggering a snap election. Under the federal Republic, it only happened once, in 1982. Otherwise, only Scholz could ask for a confidence vote. And if he loses, the president decided whether a snap election is called (of course Kohl in 1983 and Schröder in 2005 deliberately lost to call for a new election, a process that was affirmed by the Supreme Court).

[President Johnson]

In case there was any doubt that AfD is total trash:

https://twitter.com/guardianworld/status/1745069021438067173

[Middle-aged Europe]

In case there was any doubt that AfD is total trash:

https://twitter.com/guardianworld/status/1745069021438067173

For me, the best part about this (not so) clandestine meeting was the report that they discussed initiating "repressions" against foreigner-owned restaurants in order to drive migrants out of the country... while at the same time the main organizer of this meeting was mentioned as being the co-owner of a large German hamburger franchise chain.

Reminded me of (in part) economically motivated expropriations of Jewish-owned businesses in the 1930s, so that non-Jewish businessmen could profit from it.

[President Johnson]

Finally a lot of people are waking up, mass demonstrations occured in numerous cities against AfD, racism and bigotry after a secret meeting over mass deportations of migrants (including German citizens of foreign descent) became public. Politicians and media also increasingly discuss a potential trial at the Supreme Court to ban AfD.

An online petition also reached over a million signatures to revoke some rights by Thuringa's fascist AfD-leader Höcke (which is possible under the Basic Law and affects voting rights and the right to hold public office). Jurists are skeptical such a motion succeeds at the Supreme Court though.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1747620648409506000