FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win? (user search)
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  FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win? (search mode)
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Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win?  (Read 7529 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« on: May 07, 2016, 11:27:33 PM »
« edited: May 08, 2016, 05:52:17 PM by Likely Voter »

EDIT: I have reposted, there was an error in my original post


If the exercise is to make Trump win and be somewhat realistic, then I think it is something like this

My Demographics
College-Educated Whites: 54% Trump, 74% Turnout (Turnout and R share is down a bit)
Non-College-Educated Whites: 69% Trump, 61% Turnout (big surge for Trump with his base, he loves the uneducated)
Blacks: 90% Clinton, 61% Turnout (This go back to pre-Obama levels)
Hispanic: 76% Clinton, 52% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)
Asians/Other: 75% Clinton, 51% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)



Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) - 48.6%, 273 EV's
S.O.S. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 49.6%, 265 EV's


NOTE: Clinton wins PV by 1% but still loses. This comes down to FL which is essentially tied (sound familiar?)
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2016, 05:56:57 PM »

I made an error in my original post, so I fixed it. I had to reduce Clinton's share of the Latino vote a bit (although pushing Trump's share of whites up a bit also worked). However, this new map creates a 2000 like repeat with Clinton winning the popular vote but losing the EV, all due to Florida essentially being tied. Trump also wins NH and WI with less than 50%, Clinton wins PA w/ less than 50%.

Demographics
College-Educated Whites: 54% Trump, 74% Turnout (Turnout and R share is down a bit)
Non-College-Educated Whites: 69% Trump, 61% Turnout (big surge for Trump with his base, he loves the uneducated)
Blacks: 90% Clinton, 61% Turnout (This go back to pre-Obama levels)
Hispanic: 76% Clinton, 52% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)
Asians/Other: 75% Clinton, 51% Turnout (a bit worse than Romney but not too bad)



Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) - 48.6%, 273 EV's
S.O.S. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 49.6%, 265 EV's

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