PPP MI: Biden +3

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

While a 3 point margin is good for Biden what makes me worried is that he’s only polling in the 46-48% range. Hillary in 2016 polled at 47% in Michigan on RCP, while Trump polled at 43%. She seemingly had a 4 point margin, but in the actual election Hillary’s percentage remained stagnant at 47% while Trump made up the difference by winning 4% more than his polling average. The same phenomenon was seen in other states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Hillary performed pretty closely to her polling average on RCP but Trump overperformed. Now of course Biden isn’t Hillary, the Comey Letter was probably the reason why Trump made that extra 4 point of support in the first place from undecideds, but Biden can face controversy and baggage as well, and undecideds might just decide to stick with the devil they know. Unless Biden is going to do well with undecideds, I feel like we should be worried if Biden is still polling in the high 40s as the election nears...

Republicans tend to under poll in the rust belt, just like Democrats under poll in Nevada.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

While a 3 point margin is good for Biden what makes me worried is that he’s only polling in the 46-48% range. Hillary in 2016 polled at 47% in Michigan on RCP, while Trump polled at 43%. She seemingly had a 4 point margin, but in the actual election Hillary’s percentage remained stagnant at 47% while Trump made up the difference by winning 4% more than his polling average. The same phenomenon was seen in other states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Hillary performed pretty closely to her polling average on RCP but Trump overperformed. Now of course Biden isn’t Hillary, the Comey Letter was probably the reason why Trump made that extra 4 point of support in the first place from undecideds, but Biden can face controversy and baggage as well, and undecideds might just decide to stick with the devil they know. Unless Biden is going to do well with undecideds, I feel like we should be worried if Biden is still polling in the high 40s as the election nears...

Republicans tend to under poll in the rust belt, just like Democrats under poll in Nevada.

Coronavirus was brought here from Basketball players travel from China, that deals with Trade relations with China; consequently,  Trump criticized Hilary on TPP and NAFTA, but his trade with China is the same as Bush W, that had the 2008 Recession from China, too. The midwest is tired of Trump

The 2008 Recession was not caused by trade with China or even by President Bush. It was caused by deregulation of mortgage backed securities in the 1990's.

Furthermore you are not accounting for narrative. Trump is going to campaign as a protectionist, why because that is comfort zone. He isn't going to care about things like similarities between USMCA and NAFTA or the implications of his deal with China. He is going to campaign in his comfort zone and present his deals as roaring successes reversing a tide of horrendous deals, while his deals are "amazing", "really good" etc.

Furthermore in terms of the package of issues presented to these voters, Trump has credibility because of immigration, energy, abortion and guns. They work together in tandem in that sense.

The mistake you are making is that voters base their decisions on "objective truths" as oppose to feelings, narrative (true or false) and identity.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

While a 3 point margin is good for Biden what makes me worried is that he’s only polling in the 46-48% range. Hillary in 2016 polled at 47% in Michigan on RCP, while Trump polled at 43%. She seemingly had a 4 point margin, but in the actual election Hillary’s percentage remained stagnant at 47% while Trump made up the difference by winning 4% more than his polling average. The same phenomenon was seen in other states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Hillary performed pretty closely to her polling average on RCP but Trump overperformed. Now of course Biden isn’t Hillary, the Comey Letter was probably the reason why Trump made that extra 4 point of support in the first place from undecideds, but Biden can face controversy and baggage as well, and undecideds might just decide to stick with the devil they know. Unless Biden is going to do well with undecideds, I feel like we should be worried if Biden is still polling in the high 40s as the election nears...

Republicans tend to under poll in the rust belt, just like Democrats under poll in Nevada.

Coronavirus was brought here from Basketball players travel from China, that deals with Trade relations with China; consequently,  Trump criticized Hilary on TPP and NAFTA, but his trade with China is the same as Bush W, that had the 2008 Recession from China, too. The midwest is tired of Trump

The 2008 Recession was not caused by trade with China or even by President Bush. It was caused by deregulation of mortgage backed securities in the 1990's.

And Dubya's administration actually pushed for regulatory reform in housing finance industry in circa 2002-2003. Dems didn't listen.


2003 NY Times article titled: New Agency Proposed to Oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

The Bush administration today recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago.
 
Under the plan, disclosed at a Congressional hearing today, a new agency would be created within the Treasury Department to assume supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that are the two largest players in the mortgage lending industry.
 
The new agency would have the authority, which now rests with Congress, to set one of the two capital-reserve requirements for the companies. It would exercise authority over any new lines of business. And it would determine whether the two are adequately managing the risks of their ballooning portfolios.

The plan is an acknowledgment by the administration that oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- which together have issued more than $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt -- is broken. A report by outside investigators in July concluded that Freddie Mac manipulated its accounting to mislead investors, and critics have said Fannie Mae does not adequately hedge against rising interest rates.

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/bush-administration-tried-reform-freddie-and-fannie-five-years-ago

Fannie and Freddie alone would not have solved the crisis, but it demonstrates that the Bush administration was open and even taking the lead on at least some piece of the puzzle only for the Democrats, especially Chris Dodd to block them for five years and then have the gall to slither out and demand to know in 2008 why the Bush administration hadn't done anything.

I wish the expected match up between Rob Simmons and Chris Dodd had taken place in 2010. Dodd's numbers were horrendous and Simmons was ahead of him in the polls. This was after his non-starter Presidential bid and the Countrywide Financial scandal.  Hilariously, the four most likely pickup opportunities for 2010 from a 2009 perspective, were Illinois, Colorado, Delware and Connecticut, only one of which ended up coming through in the end. ND, AR and IN, were barely even discussed since their incumbents were considered to be strong for much of the year until they retired or collapsed in the polls (Blanched).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The reason why Chris Dodd poll collapse was also due to fact Teddy Kennedy whom helped crafted the Obamacare bill died, and he couldnt help protect Dodd, Frank or Martha Coakley from the R detractors from criticizing the Obamacare bill. Had Kennedy been alive he would have defended the Health care law. That's partly why Rs picked up the House, no Teddy Kennedy

What is this? What even is this?

Chris Dodd's polls collapsed in 2008, way before Ted Kennedy died and way before the health care debate even started. They collapsed because he abandoned the state and basically lived in Iowa to run for President and ended up getting like 5% of the vote for all of that. On top of that it was revealed that he had received a preferential treatment in a loan from Countrywide Financial at a time when people were getting screwed over by the banks. Chris Dodd dug his own grave via his own incestuous relationship with the banks and Wall Street.

Dodd-Frank was a joke, that enriched the biggest banks and helped lead to the consolidation of the banking industry and empowering of the few remaining firms to basically dominate the economy, while strangling smaller firms and community banks and thus slowing the economic recovery. Adding insult to injury, it was Elizabeth Warren who actually pushed to make the bill somewhat decent in terms of oversight, its only redeeming aspect. It didn't break up the large firms, it didn't restore Glass-Steagal, it didn't establish much in the way of accountability for executives and it failed to guard against either systemic risk or moral hazard going forward.

Chris Dodd is not a hero, he is a Clintonian establishment con-man who got his named slapped on a regulation bill to cover his tracks.