2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Oryxslayer]

Louisiana

JBE has won reelection. Louisiana’s government is now close enough to locked in for 2021 as it is going to get. Pending any retirements legislatively, the GOP will not have a supermajority in the Louisiana state house. If the Republicans wish to override JBE’s democratic vetoes they need to go to work and convince democrats or independents to vote with them. Louisiana is therefore poised to be a major 2021 redistricting battleground thanks to divided government. There is no easily to predict conclusion in a true battleground, only a long list of potential actions that could be pursued if the players wish to act upon their desires.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History

Louisiana's Districts from mid-90s to 2000, Wikipedia

Louisiana's Districts from 2000 to 2010, Wikipedia

2010 redistricting in Louisiana was an unusually messy affair. For the first time Louisiana was controlled by a GOP trifecta and they now had unilateral control over the lines. In the past it had always been the Dixiecratic democrats with the superior position when it came to mapmaking. The last time Louisiana had a serious redistricting fight was back in the 90s, and back then the Faultline was between Black and Dixiecratic democrats. The obscene nature of 90s VRA districts resulted in two maps of Northern Louisiana that drew up districts that were more squiggles than actual seats. Counties were rarely kept whole and blacks were separated from whites in the most cherry-picked fashion. After several court cases the dixiecrats won and Louisiana had seven compact districts, with only one in NOLA being for AAs. Those districts drawn in the mid-90s were preserved all the way to 2010 with ‘least-change’ style maps that preserved seat bases. This least change map produced a surprisingly high number of competitive elections and seat flips – even in the VRA seat when William Jefferson got tried for corruption changes. The map required the 2010 election for national partisan trends to finally assert themselves in the Bayou.

Going into 2010 then the Republicans were ambitiously optimistic about their opportunity with the lines. However, population loss from hurricane Katrina tempered these expectations. Louisiana had to drop one of her seats, and even though most of the population loss was in the NOLA region, the AA seat couldn’t be cut because of the VRA. The Republicans would need to draw straws and see who ended up with what.

Louisiana's Districts since 2010, Wikipedia

Republicans began to fight over whose community would be taking the hit and get carved up. There was never any debate about Richmond’s AA seat – that was going into BR. Stretching the 2nd out allowed the GOP to pack AA dems in the only part of the state they were numerous in, and it was even justifiable since Cao had gotten through with a lower AA%. The rest of the map was where the battles were being fought. Both chairs of the legislature’s redistricting committees were from the North and made their presence and opinions known regarding the region’s seats. The north should keep two seats, stretch north south, and those seats would be expanding southwards to fill up on the necessary population. Instead, the freshman Rep. Landry was to be pit against Boustany in a unified Acadiana seat. Landry meanwhile fought back using cultivating support from those not tied at the hip to the legislative leaders, proposing maps that left two southern seats, reshuffled the north, and carved up the Baton Rouge region. In the end Boustany won out as Acadiana got unified with his base in Lafayette but Landry’s base was left out and pushed into Scalise’s 1st.  The dual GOP northern districts were preserved, and everyone’s seat got Redder.

Since 2011

Landry as expected lost his primary with Boustany. Beyond that, the only notable change in Louisiana’s delegation has been the faces. The GOP has held all 5 of their seats incredibly safely, and Richmond has been safe in his squiggle from BR to NOLA. Every GOP rep from Louisiana has retired to run for something else or been replace, with the exception of Scalise who now sits with the House Republican Leadership. Change will only come with a new batch of lines.

2021

This is a battleground, and there are two clear camps with a variety of resolutions. JBE and the democratic legislature will clearly push for as much as they can get, with the ideal prize being a second African American District. For the Republicans, 5-1 is just the beginning. In their ideal world, the GOP pushes beyond 5-1 and draws themselves permanent supermajorities in both legislative chambers. While there is an established backdoor for resolving disagreements concerning legislative lines, handing power over to the state supreme court, there is no such backdoor for congressional lines. The traditional GOP tactic of playing African Americans against white democrats won’t really work here because…well…the African American caucus is the one attempting to gain power. There are only a few white Dems in white districts left in Louisiana, and like much of the deep south, the Democratic party is an African American party locally.

So, lets analyze each party’s proposal. The Democratic case rests on Louisiana’s high African American population statistics that didn’t really change from their 33%-ish in 2010. While the Black Belt has shrunk since 2010, the cities have grown, and kept the overall number stable. NOLA in particular rebounded hard after Katrina and once again has a respectable population living inside the city’s borders. Redistricting 2010 just happened to occur at a bad time for New Orleans demographically. New Orleans is also unique as far as southern cities go in that it has a significant liberal white community that will vote for African American democrats. This is similar to the tidewater in Virginia where a seat does not need to have 50% BVAP if there are enough non-AA democrats to make the seat 100% safe blue but not enough to challenge AA dominance of the primary.

90s proposals to create a second overwhelmingly AA seat, Wikipedia

Looking backwards there were three previous attempts to draw a Second African American seat in Louisiana. Two of these plans I alluded to earlier and they were drawn in the 90s as part of a pact between republicans and African American democrats. Both of these seats were squiggles that had almost no community of interest and were designed to pack in as many African Americans as possible – this was the 90s and that was how the VRA was interpreted. Both districts were thrown out, however similar districts may be pushed by the dems in 2020 that give more respect to communities, counties, and other groups. A third plan was drawn in 2010 by the AA caucus that did not go into Shreveport, however it was rather messy in the rest of the state. It threw too many GOP incumbents aside and never left committee. These three potential alignments are the easiest ways to get a second AA seat to work: BR to Shreveport diagonally, BR to Shreveport along the state borders, and BR+ Mississippi river counties with cuts into neighboring towns.

2010 failed Legislative plan for 2 AA seats, Louisiana SoS Site

If a second AA seat is to be drawn, one should carefully note the location of the GOP incumbents. If one is to be thrown aside, then the other 4 should be ecstatic about the rest of their lines. Scalise lives in Jefferson to the south of Metairie with a base in the suburbs, Higgins lives in Port Barre (St. Landry) and has a base in the Fayetteville region, Johnson lives in Benton (Bossier), Abraham in Mangham (Richland), and Garret in the republican southern neighborhoods of Baton Rouge. The easiest incumbent to throw aside may be Abraham or his successor – Abraham has expressed a desire to leave Washington which is why he ran for Gov.

A modern, less stringy, Border-straddling northern AA seat

A diagonal AA Seat, that maintains other communities of interest

The Republican proposal is ideally as least change of a map as possible. The 2010 map worked as far as they are concerned. Now, least change does not mean no change. If the suburban trends continue then the 2nd may need to take in select communities from the 6th and 1st. Clay Higgins presently lives right on the edge of his district and would prefer if his hometown of Port Barre is actually inside the 3rd. Scalise also is likely to demand personal lines for his seat in order to avoid primaries and further his advancement in congressional leadership. When concerning the Democrats arguments that a second African American seat should be drawn, the republican counter-argument is the disparate location of each major community. BR and Shreveport are separated by multiple counties and any district that connects them would be rather unseemly. It’s far better to keep more recognizable communities of interest unified rather than follow racial data and carve them up.

There are a few traditional ways to break a redistricting gridlock. The first way is compromise, with one side giving way on one issue and the others giving way on another issue. The classic example is when two chambers controlled by different parties draw their chambers legislative lines personally and agree to pass the others map. Compromise seems out of the picture though, since both sides are playing a zero-sum game when it comes to redistricting in southern states. The next option is abusing parochial concerns. Republicans can use democratic legislators desire for safe seats against the overall party’s interests and get them on board with a veto override. Democrats though could use republicans desire for personal congressional lines, most notably Scalise, to get them to support Bussing one of their own. Finally, there is the court option. The Louisiana Supreme court is controlled by conservatives which should benefit the GOP, except if these things go to court it is never that simple. Court maps are comparatively undesirable for incumbents when compared to personally decided district lines. Courts taking up maps on racial lines invites in groups like the NAACP, the ACLU, and other minority protection groups to get involved in a serious way. In Conclusion, anything is possible.

What’s left to decide

Nothing.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't have anything insightful to add, I just want to say that this series is great, please keep 'em coming.

Good to see I'm not screaming into the void . I fully intend these to become the main discussion Hubs as census data comes out and the state begin to prepare for redistricting. I figured it was best to start early and provide some background since states are already locking down the partisan divisions in the  legislative and gubernatorial branch, and some state are already preparing for redistricting. There was a conference in Texas I think a month back just outlining numerical reality to the  legislature for instance, and CA commission applications are all submitted for consideration. Once  I get a few more of these up I'll ping Moun and get a megathread for the links pinned.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1196447552419303429

Wasserman's map as usual is rather simple and ignores the finer points like incumbent preferences.

[Oryxslayer]

Note that 538's Atlas of Redistricting believes that the current map is a pro-Republican gerrymander, while a 4R-2D map (with no swing districts) would be the most pro-Democratic gerrymander, as well as the most proportionally partisan and the one with the most majority-minority districts (2). It also believes that it is possible to create two swing districts (one D-leaning and one R-leaning) by carving up New Orleans.

538s gerrymanders overall a pretty meh. Eg 7 4 Va

Wasserman made 538's map and because he was making 200+ maps simultaneously there are obvious ways to improve them. Partisanship can be better/worse  on the gerry's and COI's can be improved for the fair, and cuts can be  reduced on the  county map. They are  also using 2010 data. Therefore, his maps are often good starting spots, not evidence. Now, 4-2 can be a dem gerry depending on the  numbers and lines behind said 4-2, but most are not. Same  with a 4-1-1 and a 5-1 (for Rs), hand-waving statements like that are not helpful.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a nice piece on how Louisiana is now a Redistricting battleground. Also mentions some of JBE's goals, but it mostly seems he is keeping his cards close to his chest.

Sorry about the big gap in Redistricting posts, I have been enjoying my holiday. I'll hopefully have some more out soon.

[Oryxslayer]

Important update: In a surprise move, the Louisiana House of Representatives just elected a new speaker with support from all 35 Democrats, both independents and a group of 23 renegade moderate Republicans.  This means de facto coalition control of the chamber for the next 4 years and therefore a stronger Dem hand in redistricting.  This also presumably ends any possibility of 2 Dems or Indies switching to create a Republican supermajority.

I wouldn't say moderate, maybe 'traditional' is a better word. Historically, the LA house elected the Governors nominee for speaker similar to a French style of politics. This was done even if the parties divided on control of the executive and the legislature. This tradition ended  in 2015 with the election of Barras. The people who backed Schexnayder have been described as those who have historically been able to work across factions in the past (who possess various ideologies), a term that should not be confused with moderates. His election should be seen as a slight return to the older traditions, not a total coup.

However, it is correct that the end conclusion that this makes LA increasingly likely to head into the 2021 with divided powers in regards to redistricting. More committee powers means less ability to ignore the dems. The situation also increases the chance a 'corrupt bargain' emerges where one side trades powers over one map for powers  over another - but this is in no way guaranteed.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RepAbraham/status/1232759109688135686

As expected, Ralph Abraham is retiring after his failed gubernatorial run. The 5th either could get a true freshman who is easily thrown aside, or it could get a legislative ladder climber with allies in Baton Rouge. If no serious legislators end up running it would be a sign of everyone's expectations regarding redistricting.

[Oryxslayer]

NAACP Plan3 is pretty ridiculous as it tries to connect Baton Rouge with Shreveport to create a Black Majority district

Is it though? The road network and patterns of settlement, not to mention the Red River, all flow diagonally. Seems much more reasonable if you are going for a Second AA seat than the reach-around along the state border.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AlexIp718/status/1479515755163095040?s=20

JBE is officially in favor of a fight.

[Oryxslayer]

You'd still need two defections for the court to rule against the GOP (one if you include the Independent Chief Justice with the Democrats; he's in the 6th, which is not in Baton Rouge and therefore seems unlikely to be axed). That seems unlikely, so it's probably a low-risk, high-reward move which maintains OK relations with black LA Democrats after the congressional gerrymander.

Apparently this map was left to die on the floor, with a 6-1 map that makes only changes for population passed out of the chambers, though given the incoming veto it is not the end. Apparently there is some movement within the GOP to restart the 9-seat court proposal, which would then be allow the necessary (given the desire to invalidate court challenges) AA seats to be drawn without disturbing the majority or the incumbents.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's what I got for a 9-seat court map, though this is all still very much up in the air, and an expansion would require a amendment to go before the voters in November - though it would likely pass with decent support from both parties.

All the counties included in this grouping are only about 25K overpopulated, which is fine for a 5% deviation and five seats. Swapping Iberia for West Feliciana and Pointe Coupee puts the group around 15K underpopulated, which is still fine though as I will explain in a moment, why would you do it.

First districts drawn here is D1 which can be nested in St. Tammany and the White East Bank, which interlocks with the presently majority African American D7 in NOLA. Given the lower populations though D7 can remain nested in Jefferson and Orleans. D5 gets as much White areas as possible between St. Tammany and BR, and the reduction of the district size means there is actually the oddity of having a bit too many White precincts for a single seat in this part of the state. new D8 follows the African American population and D6 just goes westwards until it remarkably hits a good pop deviation. Swapping Iberia and West Feliciana + Pointe Coupee therefore would either require removing AA areas from D8 or have D6 go deeper than needed into Jefferson. The two AA seats in this grouping kinda draw themselves.



The next issue though is the contours of the western 4 seats. The intention appears to be to add a third AA seat as well, and the western grouping has the population for it, but the options are less obvious or neat.

[Oryxslayer]

That seems a reasonable decision, and would simply require election from single-member districts. Single member districts had already been ordered in Texas by White v Regester.

Worth mentioning that multi-member districts are fine, just not majoritarian ones.

Precisely which ones would be legal, you think?

MD Legistlature had quite a few iirc.

They are also one common option at the county and city level when districts get tiny compared to the precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

My DRA transcription of the map. The Master explicitly went out of the way in his report to not cut VTDs, which is why the map is not zero'ed out like usual with congressional stuff. That said, it is a advisory plaintiff plan and not meant to be final. To this end there are some improvements to be made, like removing the Vernon cut and improving the EBR and Tangipahoa cuts. 

[Oryxslayer]

In the 2019 elections, Republicans in the Louisiana House came up just two seats short of a veto-proof majority (luckily for Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, who had just narrowly won re-election that year).  With redistricting settled at least at the state level, if not for congressional districts, does anyone see them winning in 2023 the magical 70 seats they need to implement their agenda regardless of who wins the governor's mansion? 

I think they actually recently got to that number through a defection from D -> R in a rural red seat, one of the reasons why Edwards didn't see a reason to veto the GOPs recent culture war package.

[Oryxslayer]

The case here was successful for the plaintiffs, but was put on hold by the Supreme Court until they ruled on Milligan. That is over and the plaintiffs indirectly won.

This is map previously brought up in court:



However, the legislature may now move to get a map more favorable to their incumbents in place while comping with orders. Here are a few previously:

[Oryxslayer]

A lot of potential Section 2 remedial maps have the L-shaped LA-05 lock in LA-06 east of BR, which pushes Scalise out of St. Tammany. However, given the tenure of incumbents, especially Scalise, don't be surprised if the legislature preempts the court and goes for incumbent protection while making LA-05 safe Dem and majority Black.

[Oryxslayer]

How do you compactly get two black seats in Louisiana?  When I try, I get a 44% black (but 60% minority) Biden +35 seat in New Orleans and a 42% black Biden +3 seat based in Baton Rouge (and taking in the black precincts of Lafayette).  I guess you need to snake it through my 37% black, Trump +18 Northeast Louisiana district, but would SCOTUS rule differently on that case if it's more of a snake than the Alabama one?

Literally every single map I have posted in my two posts is over 50% BVAP, including the one labeled Fairfax which was ordered by the lower federal court before the stay. And there are other options that are less favorable to incumbent: the Diagonal from BR to Shreveport, and supposedly the BR centered seat with arms to Lafayette and other smaller settlements also works but I havn't tested it cause of what it forces on LA-01.

[Oryxslayer]

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Yep, this is the central BR option I mentioned in my post above this one. There are fundamentally 3 ways to draw a second >50% BVAP seat: the Monroe-BR "L," the BR Blob as shown here, and the Diagonal from Shreveport to BR. You also can do the border snake that goes from BR to Monroe to Shreveport, but the plaintiffs and judge wouldn't accept that on neatness.

All are possible, but the "L" disrupts those with congressional tenure the least, so its the one I expect the GOP would prefer in potential settlement talks.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1666942275669065728?s=20

Since the two cases were tied at the hip by the Supreme Court itself, one would normally expect this to be ignored an then the previously ordered remapping to commence.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1673323804683018242?s=20

Louisiana State Republicans shady and desperate appeal that their case was once similar to Milligan but now isn't fails. Stay is lifted, Plaintiff success in the lower courts is the current outcome.  



This was the map the district court produced before Purcell and Milligan occurred. One suspects that if the state will redraw without a master, the map will have quite a few more changes.

[Oryxslayer]

If I somehow get into District 2 I might cry. The chance to meaningfully vote for anyone but Scalise would be a dream come true.

Which is to say: I hope they shore him up in St. Tammany rather than Jefferson.

If you live in the East Bank, I wouldn't put much hope in that. Outside of a handful of specific precincts which are mostly (but not all!) in LA02 already, its a strongly majority white region. And thats before we talk about how the Metairie GOP seemingly has huge influence, or how Scalise lives in the East Bank.

[Oryxslayer]

The stay is lifted, but that leaves the issue of whether a second black CD needs to be drawn. if the lower court orders something, it might go back up.

The lower court already ruled favorably. The state then asked for a stay in the 5th, which said no (which really says all you need to know since this is the 5th) and put the case on an very expedited schedule before Milligan. Mapping is proceeding unless something new is handed down. It's like 95% done but tied up with a neat knot yet.

[Oryxslayer]

So the chance SC is gonna get a second congressional district have gone up exponentially. At this point I think even in NC republicans are only going to gain one seat. RIP Jeff Jackson.

Reminder that congressionally the SC case - as well as the AR, and secondary parts of the suits in in TX and GA - are solely based on 14th amendment racial gerrymandering claims, not section 2 VRA ones. This is different from Milligan and Louisiana, which is why the case remains on the upcoming Supreme Court docket.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1694004357312765987?t=GILquR3Z8Xzs2FbFgOosXA&am...

Reminder that technically because the equivalent of Louisianas primaries are the same day as the general election,  stretching the case until Purcell isn't really a real option.

This as of yet does not involve a stay of the lower court. If the situation holds, the lower court will put in place a map, and the state would need a 5th ruling in their favor to overturn its actions. 

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1681027606362177536?t=5uOZ0TGvEj1rIksq73D3qQ&am...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1696662841200107857?t=1H8ajEhGg-fGc73Lcmhb3Q&am...

The previously described October situation remains in place,  for now. The trail court would put in place a new normal,  and the state would require the 5th circuit to overturn it,  not just rule against the plaintiffs. The emergency stay appeal is heard by a different 3, but these three expect to have it transferred.