ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4

[BoAtlantis]

"Partisan divisions are 33-25-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 32-29-33 among registered voters and 33-31-31 among likely voters."


This part stuck out with me. They think Republican turnout will be much greater compared to their partisan division.

[Fusionmunster]

"Partisan divisions are 33-25-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 32-29-33 among registered voters and 33-31-31 among likely voters."


This part stuck out with me. They think Republican turnout will be much greater compared to their partisan division.

Yeah, I really think pollsters are going to get burned when their likely voter screens turn out to be absolutely wrong.

[ApatheticAustrian]

what will have killed him if he loses:

ABC/WaPo poll: 68% of voters believe that Trump has made unwanted sexual advances on women. Just 14% believe that he has not.

[heatcharger]

More men said Trump's comments were "beyond how men typically talk" than women. Isn't that sad?

[Fusionmunster]

what will have killed him if he loses:

ABC/WaPo poll: 68% of voters believe that Trump has made unwanted sexual advances on women. Just 14% believe that he has not.

Why I believe this poll is overstating his support.

[Ozymandias]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  5m5 minutes ago
Key stat from new ABC/Post poll: More than half -- 54 percent -- of Johnson and Stein supporters say they could change their minds.

[OneJ]

More men said Trump's comments were "beyond how men typically talk" than women. Isn't that sad?

LOL!!!

[BoAtlantis]

"Partisan divisions are 33-25-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 32-29-33 among registered voters and 33-31-31 among likely voters."


This part stuck out with me. They think Republican turnout will be much greater compared to their partisan division.

Yeah, I really think pollsters are going to get burned when their likely voter screens turn out to be absolutely wrong.

ABC/WaPo last two polls in 2012 showed +3 Obama (final margin +3.9) while other polls showed a nailbiter. I take them at their methodology.

[Maxwell]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  5m5 minutes ago
Key stat from new ABC/Post poll: More than half -- 54 percent -- of Johnson and Stein supporters say they could change their minds.

Not a surprising stat for 3rd party candidates.

This poll has some very odd crosstabs.

[ApatheticAustrian]

silly question...

does that mean they adjusted their result to their concept of likely voters?

this amazingly strict concept would explain the A+ state since nate loves those and the close seeming +4 topline.

also means: if there are as many dems as reps voting, the independents break for hillary.

[heatcharger]

This poll has some very odd crosstabs.

Yeah, like Clinton leads 51-38 among college-educated whites, while Trump leads 62-31 among non-college-educated whites. I would think that would be a much larger lead than 4 points.

[Adam Griffin]

I ain't seeing sh*t on Drudge.

Then you ain't looking hard enough. It's everywhere.

[ApatheticAustrian]

explaining the trump campaign in a nutshell:

[Fusionmunster]

This poll has some very odd crosstabs.

Yeah, like Clinton leads 51-38 among college-educated whites, while Trump leads 62-31 among non-college-educated whites. I would think that would be a much larger lead than 4 points.

Everything about this poll screams high single digit lead, i'm not sure what the deal is.

[Alcon]

silly question...

does that mean they adjusted their result to their concept of likely voters?

this amazingly strict concept would explain the A+ state since nate loves those and the close seeming +4 topline.

also means: if there are as many dems as reps voting, the independents break for hillary.

Not sure what you mean...nearly every poll we're getting these days has a likely voter screen.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Yeah, like Clinton leads 51-38 among college-educated whites, while Trump leads 62-31 among non-college-educated whites. I would think that would be a much larger lead than 4 points.

they assume as many democrats as republicans are going to vote and there are more non-college educated whites.

if you adjust to their party baseline, it seems to make sense.

[dspNY]

Some more stats:

H2H: Clinton 50, Trump 46
Clinton favorables: 40/57
Trump favorables: 35/63
Clinton won the debate 45/32
Trump's comment about jailing Clinton: 40/57 disapprove
Clinton's qualifications: 59/40
Clinton's honesty: 34/62
Clinton's temperament: 59/40
Clinton's moral character: 45/52
Trump's qualifications: 39/58
Trump's honesty: 34/64 (now slightly worse than Clinton)
Trump's temperament: 34/64
Trump's moral character: 30/66
Trump represents Republican values: 35/57
Economy: 47/46 Trump
Terrorism: 48/46 Clinton
Immigration: 48/47 Clinton
International crisis: 55/39 Clinton
Ethics in gov't: 45/37 Clinton
Looks out for middle class: 51/37 Clinton
Women's rights: 69/22 Clinton
Trump tape: 1/35/63 (more likely/less likely/no difference in Trump vote)
Trump's apology: 38/57, it is insincere
Trump's comments: 40/52 abnormal comments about women
Trump's sexual depravity: 68/14 in making unwanted sexual advances
Hillary's behavior towards Bill's accusers: 34/62, not a legitimate campaign issue
Trump's sexual conduct: 55/42, a legitimate issue
Bill's sexual conduct: 30/67, not a legitimate issue
Congressman/woman supporting Trump: 17/37/43 (more likely to support/less likely/makes no diff.)

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this isn't a bad poll at all looking at its guts.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Not sure what you mean...nearly every poll we're getting these days has a likely voter screen.

ok...differently:

nearly all the other posts we get assumes there are going to be much more registered dems than reps.

this poll disagrees and shows a nearly equal number of dems and reps...with indies deciding the tie.

and you don't need to answer me anymore, i forgot a little thing...only likely matters now.

which means:

if as many dems than reps are voting ...hillary still is going to win outside of the MOE.

[dspNY]

This poll has some very odd crosstabs.

Yeah, like Clinton leads 51-38 among college-educated whites, while Trump leads 62-31 among non-college-educated whites. I would think that would be a much larger lead than 4 points.

Me too...college-educated whites vote at far higher levels. Each group makes up about 35-36% of the electorate. You would get a lead of Trump +10 with all white voters which make up 72% of the electorate. If Trump only wins white voters by 10 he's losing by far more than 4. Romney won white voters by 20 and lost by 3.9%

[Maxwell]

h2h at 50 is a very solid figure, as is 47% in the four way.

[dspNY]

Plus, Trump will lose nonwhite voters by a worse margin than Romney...his vote share would look something like this if he wins whites by 10, assuming the minor parties get 6% of the vote

Whites: Trump 52, Clinton 42 (72%)
African-Americans: Clinton 86, Trump 8 (12%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70, Trump 24 (11%)
Other: Clinton 65, Trump 29 (5%)

Using those percentages, Clinton would win by 10

[BoAtlantis]

As Nate Cohn said, you can give the same raw data to different pollsters and they'll come up with different results depending on their expectations of turnout.

Many of these renowned polls all use good methodologies. The subjective part of how to interpret it is the real difficult part.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, this isn't catastrophic, but it's still annoying to see Drudge be right about something.

[Adam Griffin]

If Clinton is losing the white vote by 9 (which is what the poll says based on college/non-college split) and you leave all other variables (turnout and support) from 2012 the same + factor in demographic attrition, then Clinton would be ahead by 11-12.