National Tracking Poll Thread

[MorningInAmerica]

Tender Branson, I'm not sure what update you're quoting, but you're not quoting today's update. Here is today's update:

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You were reading the update from yesterday. So, like I said, if the interviews were conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, then reported Friday morning, that would mean 2/3 of the interviews were conducted AFTER the Michelle/Clinton speeches. Do you see that now?

[riceowl]

No. The Clinton speech was Wednesday night. As such, only the Thursday interviews took place after the Clinton speech. You can't lump Michelle and Bill as being on the same night because they....weren't.

[MorningInAmerica]

No. The Clinton speech was Wednesday night. As such, only the Thursday interviews took place after the Clinton speech. You can't lump Michelle and Bill as being on the same night because they....weren't.

I should have been more clear. 2/3 of the interviews came after Michelle's speech, 1/3 came after Clinton's speech. So 2 nights of the convention are being accounted for out of the 3 day survey.

Tuesday Day - Rasmussen interviews
Tuesday Night - Michelle Speech
Wednesday Day - Rasmussen interviews
Wednesday Night - Clinton speech
Thursday Day - Rasmussen Interiews
Thursday night - Obama speech
Friday morning - Rasmussen reports

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If Gallup is going to continue using RV it's time to discount them.

[pa2011]

Gallup Tracking has Obama's approval up 3 points over night, to 52 percent. Obama leads Romney head to head in Gallup now 48 to 45, a point increase since yesterday.

[Sbane]

I would like Gallup to switch over to likely voters. We are getting to the point where registered voter polls don't tell us much.

[後援会]

The Gallup polls actually surprise me. That's one hell of a convention bounce. It's quite ominous.

Though not ominous enough to hit the panic button.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

But it's RV. It would nice to know what the numbers are for those who are actually planning on voting.

[Emperor Dubya]

Uh oh.

[後援会]

But it's RV. It would nice to know what the numbers are for those who are actually planning on voting.

Probably just three points more Republican? Which is around the historical norm, I think.

[pa2011]

Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that Gallup bounce just basically be off only Michelle Obama and opening night. Maybe somewhat Clinton on Wednesday, but that still wouldn't show up for a few days, considering its a 7-day rolling average? Convention didn't even start till Tuesday night this year.

[後援会]

Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that Gallup bounce just basically be off only Michelle Obama and opening night. Maybe somewhat Clinton on Wednesday, but that still wouldn't show up for a few days, considering its a 7-day rolling average?

The approval is daily. The Romney-Obama horserace is a rolling average. BTW, I don't think the "bounces" were unexpected.



Seems pretty accurate.

[Lief 🗽]

The approval is a three-day poll, the head to head is a seven day poll.

[Tender Branson]

Obama will open up a lead of up to 5-7 points in the coming days on Gallup.

[pepper11]

I would like Gallup to switch over to likely voters. We are getting to the point where registered voter polls don't tell us much.

I am pretty sure the approval is adults and the tracking poll is registered votes.

[pa2011]

Though hearing Gallup is only RV and not LV, think polls with LV samples are going to show a pretty decent bump in Democratic enthusiasm. From what I am seeing and hearing, seems Democrats got a pretty big jolt of enthusiasm from their convention and DNC may have succeeded in closing the enthusiasm gap. Not sure it lasts till election day, but, as of now, Democrats seem pretty jazzed up

[MorningInAmerica]

Keep in mind that word of worse-than-expected job growth just broke this morning. The bounce could be somewhat short lived.

[Likely Voter]

The Gallup poll has been very very very stead for the last month. It has either been tied or with Romney or Obama +1.

And if last month's job report didnt hurt Obama, why will this month's hurt him?

[xavier110]

Keep in mind that word of worse-than-expected job growth just broke this morning. The bounce could be somewhat short lived.

Except this is a 7-day poll so you're first going to see the bounce in effect.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Keep in mind that word of worse-than-expected job growth just broke this morning. The bounce could be somewhat short lived.

The UE rate fell to 8.1. That'll probably be the headline.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The unemployment rate is down, and The Media is trying to spin that against Obama?

[Yank2133]

The Gallup poll has been very very very stead for the last month. It has either been tied or with Romney or Obama +1.

And if last month's job report didnt hurt Obama, why will this month's hurt him?

Exactly.

The Jobs report sucked, no doubt about it.....but it has also sucked for the most part since April, and yet Obama's numbers have been fairly consistent.

[Ty440]

ARG  Sep 4-6

Obama     46%
Romney    49%

Likely Voters

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Romney has truly closed the gap since Mid-August. Are we looking at Bush vs. Gore 2000 all over again?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Isn't ARG a Republican pollster?

[Likely Voter]

Is ARG going to start daily tracking?